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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I got a brand new ‘21 850 XRS I’m waiting to try....hopefully at some point I’ll be able to?  A lil discouraging right now. :-(.

 

But it’s all good...healthy and happy so things are fine. The snow will come...I hope lol. 

Wow, beautiful sled 

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It'd be a pretty remarkable accomplishment to suffer a droughty January - as in a whole month in Winter - for suffering negative wave interference alone - 

Any scenario that is destructively wave -interfering should be just a rare as the same period that is constructively interfering ... so, sustaining either for that whole time - yes it can happen ... 2015 was 5 weeks of constructive interference.   But, either at that length is still rare so...  Consolation is that dds are we line something up at some point. 

Probably does little to appease the trembles of psychotropical weather chart withdrawals  ... but, one should have fall back hobbies in the interim.  Heh... 

Seriously though, I suspect we wanna sans this -NAO and I see that happening when the flow speeds up..  We may get into other headaches/return to those...when that happens, but nickle dime events moving from Dallas to Heathrow at ludicrous speed at least all but guarantees one does not have to wait long to get their next fix -

Not speaking for the EPS but this whole time... for that last 2 weeks through today and modeled out to the edge of visible tele-cosmos, the PNA has never been more than +.33 SD, shown limited to no modulation ( meaning rise or fall, stable...), and is if anything falling out there.   So, I think we can recall pretty clearly the Euro and other guidances really jacking the western heights over runs of the last week and ... it may be a feather in the GEFs cap that the means and individual members for that matter, never really condoned that vision.  Just something I noticed.

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh boy...you loosing faith in the good pattern upcoming?  Hope not? 

No, lol...but it's not guaranteed to deliver some of these weenie years thrown around. I do admit getting a little impatient wasting that late Dec into Jan timeframe. I don't think I'm alone in that regard.

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51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I got a brand new ‘21 850 XRS I’m waiting to try....hopefully at some point I’ll be able to?  A lil discouraging right now. :-(.

 

But it’s all good...healthy and happy so things are fine. The snow will come...I hope lol. 

Nice! I bought my 2020 850 X last season, not a huge step up from my 16 except for the mid range pull is aggressive, could take or leave the gen4 chassis. 

I'm worried it's gonna be a madhouse on the trails when it finally does snow, not sure I have enough groomer operators to keep up this season, haha.

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Could have been worse....again, the PNA will kill my temp anomalies across a lot of the nation, though.

 

January Forecast Temperature Composite:

Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.29.3
 

January Forecast Precipitation Composite:

A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.40.2
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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No, lol...but it's not guaranteed to deliver some of these weenie years thrown around. I do admit getting a little impatient wasting that late Dec into Jan timeframe. I don't think I'm alone in that regard.

I'm just starting to get some late Jan 2013 vibes in here....or mid Jan 2015 vibes

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could have been worse....again, the PNA will kill my temp anomalies across a lot of the nation, though.

 

January Forecast Temperature Composite:

Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.29.3
 

January Forecast Precipitation Composite:

A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.40.2
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The text of the 1-3 above normal for C and SNE doesn't correspond with what the map is showing, at least according to the legend at the bottom.  It looks to be 0-1 above.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No, lol...but it's not guaranteed to deliver some of these weenie years thrown around. I do admit getting a little impatient wasting that late Dec into Jan timeframe. I don't think I'm alone in that regard.

This is what I’m saying.....this quiet stretch is infuriating all by itself but the sting would be less if we still had some pack OTG from December....but no....we got tropical rains instead.....

The flavor of the winter matters....and this flavor sucks.....and we’re running out of time quickly....4 maybe 5 weeks left.....

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Aside ...bothering a quick and dirty NAO check, here's the Euro 24-hour from 12z this morning.  So tomorrow morning - 

Notice the lack of -NAO up in the actual NAO  ?    D'oh!

image.png.4190f7a1ede1d4e229494b47a8160d21.png

It really more than merely seems that the models "miss-took" ( to keep it brief ...) a lack of real R-wave structure as a blocking regime.   

Perhaps there is some 'vestigial' sort of -NAOness to that mess up there...But, if you go back several days ( so 4 ...? ) and look at the model(s) et al for that this period of time this week, they clearly had intended a better discerned and structured blocking ridge in the height layout up there...  That?  up there??  that's not it - 

Either way, I don't think the NAO was handled - if this is even a -NAO... I almost wonder if it's really just the absence of patternization --> entropy in the field. 

 

image.png

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