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Once the northern stream become active, we see models tend to show suppressed solution,s underestimating the southern stream energy.  As storm threats materialize and come more into focus, we typically see bumps N in modeling.  This weekends storm is DOA. with the lobe screwing the pooch.  Next week is still viable from my perspective.  

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15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Once the northern stream become active, we see models tend to show suppressed solution,s underestimating the southern stream energy.  As storm threats materialize and come more into focus, we typically see bumps N in modeling.  This weekends storm is DOA. with the lobe screwing the pooch.  Next week is still viable from my perspective.  

I sure hope so. I had this feeling after the last rainstorm we were going high and dry for awhile. It seems like when mother nature takes a huge diarrhea dump and gets it out of her system, we go into a very constipated period. Can someone send her some ex-lax?

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week seems alive and well to me. 

Still on the ensembles....06z GFS actually had a scraper.

You wouldn't favor anything hitting at this time range, but it's definitely still showing up as possible.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will come. Not until after mid month.

That’s just what I was going to say. The early January curse or period of boredom is a real thing. After Jan 15 or 20th it gets a lot better. I don’t know why but it’s been that way for so many years.

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15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Wasn’t the winter of 1996 kind of garbage until mid January?

Other way around, lol.....That winter was great and then turned to garbage in mid-January for 2-3 weeks. Then it revived in Feb/Mar/Apr.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

95/96 was a true wire to wire winter. First accumulation in November last in April. There was a 2 week lull late Jan. December rocked.

That's one way to put it.

BDL reported 38 inches on the ground on 1/13 and a T by 1/20 after temps near 60 and and 1-1.5 inches of rain. That's about as good as thaw as you can get.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's one way to put it.

BDL reported 38 inches on the ground on 1/13 and a T by 1/20 after temps near 60 and and 1-1.5 inches of rain. That's about as good as thaw as you can get.

The mother of all thaws. Herald in by three, violent cutters. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The mother of all thaws. Herald in by three, violent cutters. 

And that first one actually melted some areas completely out. Like 40"+ packs. Some areas in SE MA lost 46" in 1 week....but they did start the melt-out in the 1/12 storm that dumped a foot of snow over the interior.

We never fully melted out even in the subsequent cutters. Got close though...I think at the nadir, we had like a 3" bulletproof glacier.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

And that first one actually melted some areas completely out. Like 40"+ packs. Some areas in SE MA lost 46" in 1 week....but they did start the melt-out in the 1/12 storm that dumped a foot of snow over the interior.

We never fully melted out even in the subsequent cutters. Got close though...I think at the nadir, we had like a 3" bulletproof glacier.

That started it. I was gone by the second cutter IIRC. Just wiped out a 40"+ pack lol.  I was also fortunate to go on our HS ski trip to Mt Snow on the last one. What an epic fail that was. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And that first one actually melted some areas completely out. Like 40"+ packs. Some areas in SE MA lost 46" in 1 week....but they did start the melt-out in the 1/12 storm that dumped a foot of snow over the interior.

We never fully melted out even in the subsequent cutters. Got close though...I think at the nadir, we had like a 3" bulletproof glacier.

If you never update the obs at NCEI did it ever happen?

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Finally 2' with that after missing the Dec '92 event and the big Feb '94 CJ just east of me at the time. 

#1 snower on my weenie black book. 26-28” in CNJ with around 36hrs of duration. HS was closed the entire week that followed lol. I doubt I ever see something like that ever again. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Other way around, lol.....That winter was great and then turned to garbage in mid-January for 2-3 weeks. Then it revived in Feb/Mar/Apr.

Wasn’t sure, I remember starting work that year and getting a bunch of snow end of Jan driving from ORH county to Westwood everyday; the beginning of that winter didn’t seem to stick out. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

#1 snower on my weenie black book. 26-30” in CNJ with around 36hrs of duration. HS was closed the entire week that followed lol. I doubt I ever see something like that ever again. 

Was great in Western half of CT too. 27 in SW CT

 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Was great in Western half of CT too. 27 in SW CT

 

I don’t think I hit 30 iirc. Maybe back then if cleared the fluff every 6hrs I probably would have. I was like 18F the whole storm. But I remember measuring that saturday morning, night, and then Sunday morning. With all the dirfting it was hard to get a true measurement too. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think I hit 30 iirc. Maybe back then if cleared the fluff every 6hrs I probably would have. I was like 18F the whole storm. But I remember measuring that saturday morning, night, and then Sunday morning. With all the dirfting it was hard to get a true measurement too. 

You bring up a good question. I NEVER clear, I only report snow measurement to NWS on snow depth for current storm. I always wondered if all these 30 plus measurements lately are people who clear. 

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