powderfreak Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL I reminded him of that on twitter Monday AM, and I think he really got spooked It's like he's realizing something that many mets realized a decade ago. It doesn't matter to the masses unless it's realized at the SFC level. Still is very useful information for the science, but the perception and verification is what happens on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right right ... in other words his audience are IMBY pinheads ... what? He discovered the internet yesterday ? There is a difference between not understanding, and just not caring if there are little in the way of sensible results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right right ... in other words his audience are IMBY pinheads ... what? He discovered the internet yesterday ? Yeah that's the disclaimer statement to the public. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 You can appreciate the fact that a call for a SSW was correct, while also acknowledging that it did not result in a severe winter in the ne US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's the disclaimer statement to the public. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can appreciate the fact that a call for a SSW was correct, while also acknowledging that it did not result in a severe winter in the ne US. Not yet...TBD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Well I jumped in the middle that conversation so I don’t know what you guys were really talking about I just thought that was funny how Cohen seemed informing us that people have an IMBY attitude. No shit really Also I still have not seen any definitive evidence to prove that this is a downward or propagating warm anomaly ... Open to seeing that down motion evidence if provide I think this is a warm anomaly that upwelled from below ...up into the tropopause and is folding over in the euro products because that warm node has been there over the north east Siberian Alaskan sector all autumn long and there was never any over arcing high sigma level s-stratospheric warming thermal plume detected in the CDAS But ironically… and to Cohen’s point… It’s not gonna matter because that feature folding into the flow would probably cause a giant ridge explosion in the EPO and that’s going to set things akilter towards a cold storm pattern should that actually evolve that way. So who cares what’s the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Kevin really sliced Dr. Cohen a few days ago.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 SSWs have been wonderful tools for exciting energy traders and moving those markets. The allure is starting to fade I think, especially when every year there is talk of stratospheric “something” and also the fact many of them aren’t successful for big cold in the US. They either don’t propagate down or can dump cold over Europe instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not yet...TBD. That wasn't declarative, it was hypothetical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL I reminded him of that on twitter Monday AM, and I think he really got spooked The was Monday AM before he made a point to harp on this via the disclaimer in his blog lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That wasn't declarative, it was hypothetical. Gotchya. Yea, agree on the hypothetical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: SSWs have been wonderful tools for exciting energy traders and moving those markets. The allure is starting to fade I think, especially when every year there is talk of stratospheric “something” and also the fact many of them aren’t successful for big cold in the US. They either don’t propagate down or can dump cold over Europe instead. We’ve been through this every winter when a certain someone calls for SSW. Eventually it happens...but 1/10 isn’t a great verification score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS looks fairly quiet for the next 10 days with a couple of clippers on the 14th and 15th. No sign of that Euro 12th hugger @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GFS looks fairly quiet for the next 10 days with a couple of clippers on the 14th and 15th. No sign of that Euro 12th hugger @ 12z. Once the N stream becomes a more prominent player, that can yield big tickets with relatively short notice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Gfs is Miller b city in the long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Ukie is flat for next week. Euro is alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is flat for next week. Euro is alone. I've been out on the wknd, and not invested in Tuesday. I don't see any serious threats yet...just waiting, as the novelty of the SSW hype has run its course for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 I'm mainly waiting on the N stream mid month. It needs to be a very special system for me to get pumped up for a s streamer....its always just a matter of how many limiting factors there are with those because there is always at least one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 I guess what irritates me most about the SSW is that there is far too much hype around it considering the level of uncertainty. Everybody wants to cyber-spank it to pretty pictures of the temperature at 63,347 feet up, but no one wants to be accountable when nothing happens at the surface. I'm sorry, but if you forecast a severe NE winter (this is a general statement, not directed at anyone) and a SSW occurs that has relatively little impact at the surface, then your forecast is still a failure. Anyone who can't handle that probably shouldn't engage in seasonal forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Ray, I love miller Bs, they tend to work out more often then not for the Cape and Islands. Especially the Jan 05 system and to a lesser extent the Jan 15 system which was a digging miller B event. Miller Bs are the best for my area. We have to wait another ten days, the wait is killing me for a great Cape Cod storm. I would not be surprised to see this weekend begin to pop back up to a Cape Cod special down the line. Models have a different solution every run, there is no continuity and no consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Euro squashes the storm next week. Northern stream lags behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray, I love miller Bs, they tend to work out more often then not for the Cape and Islands. Especially the Jan 05 system and to a lesser extent the Jan 15 system which was a digging miller B event. Miller Bs are the best for my area. We have to wait another ten days, the wait is killing me for a great Cape Cod storm. I would not be surprised to see this weekend begin to pop back up to a Cape Cod special down the line. Models have a different solution every run, there is no continuity and no consensus. Jan 05 was garbage.....I know you probably loved it but there were losers.....it was an early introduction to SNE winter.....we had moved in previous August......the result was so meh compared to forecast....here anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 This was the northern stream energy that was lagging for the 12th storm. It dug all the way south and then formed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray, I love miller Bs, they tend to work out more often then not for the Cape and Islands. Especially the Jan 05 system and to a lesser extent the Jan 15 system which was a digging miller B event. Miller Bs are the best for my area. We have to wait another ten days, the wait is killing me for a great Cape Cod storm. I would not be surprised to see this weekend begin to pop back up to a Cape Cod special down the line. Models have a different solution every run, there is no continuity and no consensus. You aren't getting snow this wknd. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This was the northern stream energy that was lagging for the 12th storm. It dug all the way south and then formed this. Pull the plug @ORH_wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Pull the plug @ORH_wxman Pull what plug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pull what plug? finish the maps through new england or you'll be banned ... lol. his words, not mine 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: finish the maps through new england or you'll be banned ... lol. his words, not mine 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Next week seems alive and well to me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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