Great Snow 1717 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: if it's not going to snow, can we get the polar vortex to move on down please. the weather can't get more unexciting atm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Suppression depression? Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm always happy. Just don't like whining. Hate when my kids do it, hate when the weenies do it. I lose it when they wine (kids and weenies). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Suppression depression? Hopefully not. I guess you don't read anything I post. Glad that kid finally agrees with me on the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That's not a 09-10 -NAO. That is a Greenland ridge verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Action and finally some pac help moving forward. I’m pumped. LFG you little weeners. Man up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a 09-10 -NAO. That is a Greenland ridge verbatim. Which would be much better for SNE than that 09-10 Crushing NAO that kept everything south of NE. Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Which would be much better for SNE than that 09-10 Crushing NAO that kept everything south of NE. Right? Right. As I said earlier....I'm sure the south may get some winter wx. Not every storm can aim for us...but I don't see an overall suppression look IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I'm saving that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't worry much about suppression IMO. The fact that ridging develops near the coast of western NAMR usually isn't something to whiff, especially with a tad of ridging off the SE coast like the EPS has. Sure some storms may not always hit and whiff....but I don't see this as a "whiff" pattern. You look at that and you can almost see the kind of coastals we get where they are storms that pound LA/Sierras 3-4 days before reaching the E Coast. Upper air pattern should be there. Feel a lot better with a 384 GFS prog that shows us with zilch too. How many times to we see one of those 384 progs show 48" and we end up with nothing ? 384 hr GFS snowmap #6 on Ray's Fraud Five list ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I wish it was super-cold. The ponds and lakes around here need to be frozen solid at least if we aren't getting any snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't worry much about suppression IMO. The fact that ridging develops near the coast of western NAMR usually isn't something to whiff, especially with a tad of ridging off the SE coast like the EPS has. Sure some storms may not always hit and whiff....but I don't see this as a "whiff" pattern. People should be signing up for this look. 4 weeks of rage in 2011: 4 weeks of rage in 2009: Some similarities....2009 was displaced a little north with the ATL ridging, but 2011 is a pretty close match. Both had the western ridge displaced just offshore. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is this Tblizz? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: People should be signing up for this look. 4 weeks of rage in 2011: 4 weeks of rage in 2009: Some similarities....2009 was displaced a little north with the ATL ridging, but 2011 is a pretty close match. Both had the western ridge displaced just offshore. Bingo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I wish it was super-cold. The ponds and lakes around here need to be frozen solid at least if we aren't getting any snow. Agreed. Normally by now I'd be looking to go ice fishing. This year it would be fishing for ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a 09-10 -NAO. That is a Greenland ridge verbatim. I think what he was saying is that we have the best of both worlds. Not one or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bingo. Scott, Is this the most optimistic you have been all winter, based on what your viewing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: Agreed. Normally by now I'd be looking to go ice fishing. This year it would be fishing for ice. Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, tamarack said: Agreed. Normally by now I'd be looking to go ice fishing. This year it would be fishing for ice. Just now, dryslot said: Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. We'll probably get a legit cold shot in here in the 2nd half of the month assuming the longwave pattern is close to correct on guidance....surrounding any cold shot I would think temps would be more close to seasonable than they have been. But the next 8-10 days look pretty mild relatively speaking. Particularly the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. Lousy for trying to freeze down winter logging roads, too. As we entered 2021 only the North region of BPL had active jobs, and staff had to scramble after the mega-Grinch to find environmentally safe places for loggers to work. Minima this month are running about 14° AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, Is this the most optimistic you have been all winter, based on what your viewing? Yeah as good as it has looked IMO. But over the last week...I think many of us have said it looks to improve second half of the month. I don't think that has changed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Lousy for trying to freeze down winter logging roads, too. As we entered 2021 only the North region of BPL had active jobs, and staff had to scramble after the mega-Grinch to find environmentally safe places for loggers to work. Minima this month are running about 14° AN. By now, I have bait dealers hitting me up up for bags that go into 5 gal pails and coolers and i've only had a couple come in so far so i know ice fishing is off to a very slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 My own meaningless twaddle ... - i get what Scottness is sayn' The term "suppression" in so far as what it means for this social media means 'mashed too far S to get our euphoria fix' ...? lol.. However, the flow is suppressed out there in these looks, either way. That's why I like using the word "compression" - because it removes that other distinction and just refers to the overall setting as too many height lines and the flow has to speed up to the point where it starts shearing. So, this is a semantic clarification more than anything, and it's based on my rules ... so not likely to be adopted. Understood ... - re the NAO ... mm... I see what and why mr Webb on the Web is suggesting both a -EPO and -NAO "get to happen" like a lip-wetting greedy safe cracker that's just broken into Fort Knox.. buuuut, I'm willing to hedge that if the gradient rich look returns with that nice orderly faster R-wave construct from Hawai'i to Halifax like that... the NAO gets fire hosed off the charts. I suspect the recent NAO is really more of a "flop" wave mechanical result of a relaxation everywhere that took place when the main ballast of the PV dislodged and slipped deeply into the western Pacific/+WPO monster. When that happened...entropy of patternization swept into this side of the hemisphere - and there's a reason why we see this nebular look with shallow cut-offs dappled in between an array of vaguely anomalous ridging nodes... It's because there really isn't a very well defined systemic layout of R-waves on this side of the hemisphere at present - it's changing though.. The guard appears to be trying to go back to the placing colder seasonal heights into middle Canada...and when that happens, the gradient steepens everywhere, ...flow speeds up ...boom, +PNAP more like emerges out of the ether once that focusing mechanism is turned on... Caveat emptor: the -AO ...That's still a whopper negative out there even into week 2, no longer correcting up ... Yesterday or the day before, all members of the GEFs camp were trying to signal a neutralization of that index into week 2, but suddenly, ...8 of the 12 members used at CPC have returned to -3 or even -4 SD... AO shares domain space with the NAO but only partially ... there is a disconnect, and we can certainly find plenty of examples of -AO/-EPO/+NAO ... - part of the problem is... the HC. Don't think that the expansion stuff isn't prevalent, just because the flow is currently 'relaxed'. It's still there, it's just not being exposed - that happens when the colder heights return ( or attempt...) to mid-latitudes.... That ~ 3 to 6 dm of insidious GW surplus ( comparing previous climate paradigm) still integrates Below the 40th parallel ( probably closer to the 35th ), and it doesn't vanquish. When the cold heights return, the gradient extends over larger distance anew...and that drives wind rage.. evincing the existence by way of resistance - sorry about the rhyme. The gradient increase in the large scale, and the faster hemisphere is like the UV lamp/'black light' in this sense. Again... I'm not just being whimsy...this still is covered in the special climate reports, as well as clearly stating that the boundary that demarcates the HC's termination into the westerlies band ( which in itself demarcates the interface between the HC and Farrel Cell at higher polar latitudes), is amorphously defined - SO now that no one has read this far ... I suspect we are heading for a -AO/ -EPO more so than -NAO ... I also wonder if the -EPO is unstable... I say so because the WPO ...in the atmosphere of 1955 - 1980 ... It tends to precede the EPO, positively correlated by time lag in the latter aspect. I am not seeing the WPO as falling --> AB Pac --> -EPO evolution...I'm just noticing the -EPO ...it's not a stable hemisphere. But here's the interesting supposition - I have opined in the past about how the teleconnector climo appears to be rattled by much of this climate change shit.. I wonder if a faster hemisphere might actually offer a pathway to sustain more +WPO/-EPO as "standing wave" phenomenon - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Is the weenie bun for pegging someone as an optimistic snow lover, or is it an FU? Maybe I have used it wrong which would be negligent in my part. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The former not the latter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. Sucks for a lot of people, but I am loving it. 5 years ago I would be cheering -30F on, but I have other interests now that keep me cheering the cold away. (birds and bamboo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. Golf season extended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Golf season extended? Maybe disc golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Go ahead back up, More of a nuisance then anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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