TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's funny how some people will never wrap their minds around the difference between forecasting a large scale hemispheric regime, and the subtle nuances in relation to the phasing of a cyclone. That is such a silly analogy...its not the same thing. "We can't even forecast a snowstorm 2 days out, how will be forcast a pattern 2 months out!" If you can't understand that, then you're probably better served to never venture into seasonal forecasting. I used to kick myself for not learning it, but ultimately made the decision to wait until I'm older to get into it. It's a lot of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's funny how some people will never wrap their minds around the difference between forecasting a large scale hemispheric regime, and the subtle nuances in relation to the phasing of a cyclone. That is such a silly analogy...its not the same thing. "We can't even forecast a snowstorm 2 days out, how will be forcast a pattern 2 months out!" If you can't understand that, then you're probably better served to never venture into seasonal forecasting. Comparing oranges to bananas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 I understand that I include snowfall in the seasonal outlook, and I admit that there is reduced value in that variable....but I do it because it is my love for winter weather that fuels my drive to complete the whole undertaking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I understand that I include snowfall in the seasonal outlook, and I admit that there is reduced value in that variable....but I do it because it is my love for winter weather that fuels my drive to complete the whole undertaking. Without a snowfall output...most weenies probably won’t read it lol. “Just get to the last page already and tell me how much I’m getting.” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I used to kick myself for not learning it, but ultimately made the decision to wait until I'm older to get into it. It's a lot of work. There are plenty of crafts that we have honed as a society over the course of the past century....hell, decade. How do you think we got to that point? A different attitude would still have people in horse and buggies battling polio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 NAM and GFS are handling the arctic shortwave vorticity lobe differently in the 00z run then the previous several cycles. Also there is a strong southern stream shortwave/upper level low closed off in the Southeast/Gulf Coast states. The NAM is simply over amplified with the southern stream and the arctic vorticity maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Oh this is 84 hours out, system for our area is less than 5 days out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes, so that means you cared in the first place...ie, emotionally invested Obv I’m busting but it’s nice to see you reveal your true colors some. Not really no. True colors ? I’m interested in interesting meteorological phenomenon. This? ... fails to be interesting when it persists I know you really want to jar me in with that cinema persecution shit but I don’t have that kind of mood attachment to this engagement I don’t 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM and GFS are handling the arctic shortwave vorticity lobe differently in the 00z run then the previous several cycles. Also there is a strong southern stream shortwave/upper level low closed off in the Southeast/Gulf Coast states. The NAM is simply over amplified with the southern stream and the arctic vorticity maximum. I'm going to go on Facebook and mark myself safe from James' mid range model analysis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I used to kick myself for not learning it, but ultimately made the decision to wait until I'm older to get into it. It's a lot of work. Its tougher with kids...I'm lucky I started a new job in August that affords me more downtime. I don't even do it at home anymore...which has done wonders for the marriage hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to go on Facebook and mark myself safe from James' mid range model analysis. Man go do that Ray. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Not to get into this again, because as I’ve said yesterday, I respect yours and anybody else’s effort who wants to do that type of thing. And it’s certainly appreciated. But I think Frieks point, and thus mine too yesterday, is the fact of snowfall(that’s all). Snowfall cannot be forecasted at those long range leads. Sure, you can peg a pattern from a distance at times, but that does not always equate to a ferocious run of systems. Or a monstrous amount of snowfall for that forecasted pattern. Due to the obvious myriad of nuances that accompany each individual system. And yes, sometimes it all falls into place and it’s awesome for everyone, and it turns out to be a great call for the guys who want to delve into that, and do the research and work. And congratulations is surely in order when that does occur. I, and I’m sure anybody else here is CERTAINLY not shitting on you one bit, when we are talking about snowfall itself. So please don’t take any of that the wrong way. Because it’s not meant in any derogatory manner whatsoever. Your outlooks are fabulous. I know everybody appreciates them, and learns from them. As do I. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man go do that Ray. Just kidding, bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: Not to get into this again, because as I’ve said yesterday, I respect yours and anybody else’s effort who wants to do that type of thing. And it’s certainly appreciated. But I think Frieks point, and thus mine too yesterday, is the fact of snowfall(that’s all). Snowfall cannot be forecasted at those long range leads. Sure, you can peg a pattern from a distance at times, but that does not always equate to a ferocious run of systems. Or a monstrous amount of snowfall for that forecasted pattern. Due to the obvious myriad of nuances that accompany each individual system. And yes, sometimes it all falls into place and it’s awesome for everyone, and it turns out to be a great call for the guys who want to delve into that, and do the research and work. And congratulations is surely in order when that does occur. I, and I’m sure anybody else here is CERTAINLY not shitting on you one bit, when we are talking about snowfall itself. So please don’t take any of that the wrong way. Because it’s not meant in any derogatory manner whatsoever. Your outlooks are fabulous. I know everybody appreciates them, and learns from them. As do I. Yea, I get the snowfall part....you guys are right about that. The luck/unknown element makes it fun...like sports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think they are educated guesses but some put in more work than others and it shows. I respect that. I’ve actually learned enso, qbo, and some other stuff from reading Ray’s and other pre season outlooks so if nothing else, they are passing ‘big picture’ knowledge down to those who care to learn a little. Whole-heartily agree. Just can’t hang your hat on the outcomes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Whole-heartily agree. Just can’t hang your hat on the outcomes. I agree. You put as much time in as you want, at the end of the day it's a frontier science. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I get the snowfall part....you guys are right about that. The luck/unknown element makes it fun...like sports. Absolutely. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don’t want to diminish the work of monthly forecasts, because I am not a long range guy. But the models struggle with events at 36-48 hours. Weekly or monthly stuff is purely a guess and it’s nearly impossible to know how actual snowfall totals turn out IMO. Weird and minor permutations can change the course of winter quickly. You’re right… But not intensely right ha ha but seriously. now is the culture of our discontent. Recent events ... or lack thereof heh, impugning the models and their performance beyond 48 hours is right popular! People are pissed - that’s what happens. However they are better than just 48 hours by a goodly percent, objective empirical data verification scoring and fairness. Even if you’re just being hyperbolic by saying that… We should point that out because believe me this is how meme rumors get spun up and people then start believing it like it’s bricks in the foundation of wisdom. I have personally lived and experienced month and a half long patterns that were so predictable models nailed amounts at eight days out not just event type – there are predictable times; now it’s just not one of them. The models are pretty damn good out even 108 hours as average perf - I think I read 60% around that range before the water turns dark blue. maybe in this pattern reduce move that to 84 ... 72 Just throwin numbers around but you get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM and GFS are handling the arctic shortwave vorticity lobe differently in the 00z run then the previous several cycles. Also there is a strong southern stream shortwave/upper level low closed off in the Southeast/Gulf Coast states. The NAM is simply over amplified with the southern stream and the arctic vorticity maximum. Nah no James ... look, the problem in the GFS /..NAM is clearly the ICON Yoy really have focus a long while there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Ray, all I was commenting on, was that there is a few days left to determine how the streams will interact and how if any phasing occurs and the timing of the phase. Models all show some type of phasing between the surface and 700mb until it is near 40N/65W when the phasing begins at H5. No one knows what will happen. Right now, best guess is we won't know until 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nah no James ... look, the problem in the GFS /..NAM is clearly the ICON Yoy really have focus a long while there I am confused Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The ****ing lobe in Maine ruins this weekends and next week's storm. Smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The 00z GEFS mean is leaning west this run. Strong spread to the west of the mean surface low track. Interesting to see how the CMC, UKMET and EURO and ensembles play along tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to go on Facebook and mark myself safe from James' mid range model analysis. It can't be any worse than what most models had at that range for the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 00z GEFS mean is leaning west this run. Strong spread to the west of the mean surface low track. Interesting to see how the CMC, UKMET and EURO and ensembles play along tonight Cmc ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray, all I was commenting on, was that there is a few days left to determine how the streams will interact and how if any phasing occurs and the timing of the phase. Models all show some type of phasing between the surface and 700mb until it is near 40N/65W when the phasing begins at H5. No one knows what will happen. Right now, best guess is we won't know until 24 hours out. It's gone. We know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am confused Tip? Apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: The ****ing lobe in Maine ruins this weekends and next week's storm. Smfh Meteorological turd in the punchbowl -- though that thing is moving all about on the models. It's unlikely, but maybe shove it far enough west and/or south, and it has a positive effect on the southern system. CMC 12z vs. 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The typically quick and progressive NAVGEM is one of the more amplified and western based models for this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 00z EURO is leaning towards the 00z UKMET in their own group with no sign of an arctic vorticity max rounding the 50/50 low and instead a large ridges sits over the trough acting as a block sending it east after it hits the wall of the 50/50 low and Ontario, Canada Ridge zone of confluence. The other models are not yet on board, and yet the EURO and UKMET are in one group of their own. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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