January 2021

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Tip ridicules weenies for being too emotionally invested into winter and there he goes being sick of the season already. Sounds too emotionally invested to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe at some point? But at least weeklies look good to start. FWIW anyways. 

I'll tell you, give me Feb 2018 over what the long range GFS is selling verbatim.

[Ginx snewx]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I got about two weeks left in me, and if the hunt hasn't paid off, or a payoff is not imminent, then I'll be ready for baseball.

Omg

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I got about two weeks left in me, and if the hunt hasn't paid off, or a payoff is not imminent, then I'll be ready for baseball.

You realized you just doomed May-ta two flurry CAAs and a synoptic slushee for that insolence 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Man that EPS...not only a west based Nao block but is that a PNA and then a huge EPO ridge?  Also doesn’t look super suppressed 50-50 doesn’t look too far south.  Looks like a GREAT pattern for many from VA to ME.

Is there a free source ? 

[mahk_webstah]

I saw it in the DC thread I think and also the weekly depiction a page or two earlier in here

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I saw it in the DC thread I think and also the weekly depiction a page or two earlier in here

Word !

I’m just wondering if it’s a shape thing but not so much in terms of the z-coordinate. I mean the gradient matters… Too much… Too little. And and if the holes in the atmosphere too deep relativity to hills that’s too much of a good thing ... contrasting if the holes are too shallow and the ridges aren’t that tall might end up with something like we have now. 

Perhaps having the right shape might be all we can hope for at this range anyway

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is there a free source ? 

Tropical tidbits has the EPS out to 10 days for free. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021010412&fh=0

Ecmwf.int has the weeklies for free but the interface looks like it was designed with the same technology as Excite Bike. 

But here’s the link anyway, you can get the idea. 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101040000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202101110000

[Ginx snewx]

@dendrite Waterford Wisconsin 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Omg

Sorry, dude....if we get to Jan 18 with nothing even on the table, something has gone wrong , regardless of your level of denial.

Do I expect that....no.

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tip ridicules weenies for being too emotionally invested into winter and there he goes being sick of the season already. Sounds too emotionally invested to me. 

Mm you have an interesting spin engine runnin over there. “Sick” of anything means not emotionally invested .. it means I don’t care about it anymore. Not really there yet I’m just saying I’m getting close

Besides actually start checking out around mid February anyway… I start to feel the sun coming back and I don’t like to wrestle with inevitability once I sense those changes in the environment I’m ready for the next season almost immediately I change on a dime very quickly. 

Having said that I am also aware that we have big huge events clear into the first week of April - we all have our demons I suppose. But I feel advantage in that sense because I can always jump on the bandwagon if the system is going to be significant enough

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tropical tidbits has the EPS out to 10 days for free. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021010412&fh=0

Ecmwf.int has the weeklies for free but the interface looks like it was designed with the same technology as Excite Bike. 

But here’s the link anyway, you can get the idea. 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101040000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202101110000

Thanks yeah I was kind a hoping for the hemisphere of you LOL but yeah I know about tropical. I’ll look around at the others

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry, dude....if we get to Jan 18 with nothing even on the table, something has gone wrong , regardless of your level of denial.

Do I expect that....no.

Lol ok , Jan 21 to Feb 6th 1978 I had 5 feet  and I could go on and on and on with many seasons back loaded. I mean cmon Jan 18th is one month in on winter. I am already 1/3 rd to my average.  Sometimes I think you think you live in NVT

[TalcottWx]

OT but OES over Scooter and soon to me. We take 

[TalcottWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry, dude....if we get to Jan 18 with nothing even on the table, something has gone wrong , regardless of your level of denial.

Do I expect that....no.

Thats so early to give up though, an entire Feb and March to go through and considering how boring things are with covid you might as well stay involved lol. Baseball so far away. Miserable spring still to come too

[Go Kart Mozart]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tropical tidbits has the EPS out to 10 days for free. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021010412&fh=0

Ecmwf.int has the weeklies for free but the interface looks like it was designed with the same technology as Excite Bike. 

But here’s the link anyway, you can get the idea. 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101040000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202101110000

Damn.  Those bad boys have us roasting once February begins...just like Ray's winter forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol ok , Jan 21 to Feb 6th 1978 I had 5 feet  and I could go on and on and on with many seasons back loaded. I mean cmon Jan 18th is one month in on winter. I am already 1/3 rd to my average.  Sometimes I think you think you live in NVT

Good luck with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Thats so early to give up though, an entire Feb and March to go through and considering how boring things are with covid you might as well stay involved lol. Baseball so far away. Miserable spring still to come too

I am confident February will not be great.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am confident February will not be great.

Thanks, New England probably scores a huge widespread event with that confidence.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Thanks, New England probably scores a huge widespread event with that confidence.

Yeah ... the event is 84 for four days this time lol

[CoastalWx]

Yeah nice flakes. Dusting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Thanks, New England probably scores a huge widespread event with that confidence.

I would say if that happened,  it would be a very early phase change event.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... the event is 84 for four days this time lol

I don’t want to diminish the work of monthly forecasts, because I am not a long range guy.  But the models struggle with events at 36-48 hours.  Weekly or monthly stuff is purely a guess and it’s nearly impossible to know how actual snowfall totals turn out IMO.  Weird and minor permutations can change the course of winter quickly.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Thats so early to give up though, an entire Feb and March to go through and considering how boring things are with covid you might as well stay involved lol. Baseball so far away. Miserable spring still to come too

I have some hope for March.

Like I said, I expect some fun to come in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t want to diminish the work of monthly forecasts, because I am not a long range guy.  But the models struggle with events at 24-48 hours.  Weekly or monthly stuff is purely a guess and it’s nearly impossible to know how actual snowfall totals turn out IMO.  Weird and minor permutations can change the course of winter quickly.  

I would say 3/6 of mine have been very accurate. I've been better with la nina. I was 3/4, but past couple fraud nino events killed me.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t want to diminish the work of monthly forecasts, because I am not a long range guy.  But the models struggle with events at 24-48 hours.  Weekly or monthly stuff is purely a guess and it’s nearly impossible to know how actual snowfall totals turn out IMO.  Weird and minor permutations can change the course of winter quickly.  

We Already had this discussion yesterday.  But I agree wholeheartedly.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny how its usually the guys who don't do them that shit on the effort....I think there have been enough successful efforts in general (not just me) to justify the value.

Anyway, it's the best exercise for expanding your knowledge on the topic if nothing else.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm you have an interesting spin engine runnin over there. “Sick” of anything means not emotionally invested .. it means I don’t care about it anymore. Not really there yet I’m just saying I’m getting close

Besides actually start checking out around mid February anyway… I start to feel the sun coming back and I don’t like to wrestle with inevitability once I sense those changes in the environment I’m ready for the next season almost immediately I change on a dime very quickly. 

Having said that I am also aware that we have big huge events clear into the first week of April - we all have our demons I suppose. But I feel advantage in that sense because I can always jump on the bandwagon if the system is going to be significant enough

Yes, so that means you cared in the first place...ie, emotionally invested  

Obv I’m busting but it’s nice to see you reveal your true colors some.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's funny how some people will never wrap their minds around the difference between forecasting a large scale hemispheric regime, and the subtle nuances in relation to the phasing of a cyclone. That is such a silly analogy...its not the same thing. "We can't even forecast a snowstorm 2 days out, how will be forcast a pattern 2 months out!" If you can't understand that, then you're probably better served to never venture into seasonal forecasting. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t want to diminish the work of monthly forecasts, because I am not a long range guy.  But the models struggle with events at 36-48 hours.  Weekly or monthly stuff is purely a guess and it’s nearly impossible to know how actual snowfall totals turn out IMO.  Weird and minor permutations can change the course of winter quickly.  

I think they are educated guesses but some put in more work than others and it shows. I respect that. I’ve actually learned enso, qbo, and some other stuff from reading Ray’s and other pre season outlooks so if nothing else, they are passing ‘big picture’ knowledge down to those who care to learn a little.