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January 2021


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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. 

Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place. 

People are discounting this pattern because of the PNA. Dont overlook the NAO and AO.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes sir

I thought it was a rush to expect changes for late Dec but I did think by end of first week of Jan we should start seeing a better look. Now looks later? Just hope this isn’t another season of a repetitive D10 looks great lol. What do I know though...I watch maps and stick my opinionated weenie in and out. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought it was a rush to expect changes for late Dec but I did think by end of first week of Jan we should start seeing a better look. Now looks later? Just hope this isn’t another season of a repetitive D10 looks great lol. What do I know though...I watch maps and stick my opinionated weenie in and out. 

LC , deal with it lol

suspect that other mid-latitude cyclones will follow through next month, each a little stronger than the one preceding. With a Rex blocking signature over Baffin Island and the Davis Strait, there will be opportunities for cold air drainage from Canada. You would not know this by looking at the most recent numerical model 2m temperature predictions. But that aspect will slowly change as effects of a strong southern branch jet stream and an ongoing stratospheric warming episode start to impact surface features as we push deeper into 2021.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LC , deal with it lol

suspect that other mid-latitude cyclones will follow through next month, each a little stronger than the one preceding. With a Rex blocking signature over Baffin Island and the Davis Strait, there will be opportunities for cold air drainage from Canada. You would not know this by looking at the most recent numerical model 2m temperature predictions. But that aspect will slowly change as effects of a strong southern branch jet stream and an ongoing stratospheric warming episode start to impact surface features as we push deeper into 2021.

Johnny Deeper...?

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51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. 

Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place. 

This is a classic pattern where a snow event will appear out of nowhere.  It’s a combo of there being enough cold air around and the models really sucking badly beyond day 5 recently 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stop looking at those damned charts and see the pattern. EPO sucks but the NAO is a fraud -NAO. It’s not a west-based Davis Strait or even Hudson Bay block. It’s eastern Greenland to Iceland ridging with a  vortex over Baffin Island...in scientific technical lingo, that’s called a dogshit negative NAO.

They can be ok when the PAC is mediocre but not when it is hostile. Previously, model guidance showed a true Davis Strait block which was going to offset the shitty PAC. 

True but I have to say I don’t recall a case in the last 22-23 years where I’ve really followed these indices where anything like this has happened before.  Part of it is that  December is probably the only month in winter where this type of alignment can occur and the pattern and air mass nature could suck this much, so you have narrow period to a degree where the stars can align.  I think even in early to mid March this set of indices with a bad EPO would produce a markedly colder pattern than this.  I think alone the W ATL SSTs being colder in March would likely cause less ridge bridging between that SER and the NAO ridge than we keep seeing models trying to spit out.  Whether or not that comes to fruition I don’t know but they’ve been trying to show it 

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The AO did correct at last ...last night's run completely flipped. The "gape" that had opened up between the verification curve wrt the on-going prognostics has rather abruptly corrected.

Hard to know/say what/why that happened ... but the two are eye-balling a more actually correlation coefficients ...which prior for a week running they had gone astray.

That "might" offer some confidence back in using the damn thing .. the gap before really rattled its usage to non usable frankly... It was over as much as 2SD parted ways and increasing.

Right now the the verification curve has demonstrated so much instantaneous correction ( for a single cycle!) that it has to have been some sort of mass-field reset - it literally repositioned the curve 2.5 SD almost straight down and knowing where this set as of yesterday morning... That appears 'less than organically motivated' -

Either way, now the prognostic curve and the verification curve are descending... ;)  together ... big time!  I find it interesting also that as this correction took place, we are also seeing less 'mop ended' discord among the members entering week two.  So in short ..we suddenly "seem" to have a legit mightily suppressed AO coming from the GEFs ..

Now that that's been taken care of... we still have the unusual circumstance of high velocities around the periphery of the ambient PV...  When the AO drops negative, typically the PV relaxes both velocity and latitude... This "pancaking" of the PV ... is unstable geometrically with the curvature-linear planet space so the flow buckles.. .and in the polarward parts become ridge nodes, while the equatorial dips become conveyors for both cold delivery to mid latitudes, but storm traffic increases. The problem is that the velocities being high ... offsets those buckling tendencies - it's figuratively as though the PV is just large, but not weak. 

All this means pattern change - ...to what... Hard to guess because of the velocity skewing the climate model. I guess go with something that correlates more so than less, with -AO... I would imagine that (WPO-EPO)/NP and the NAO all may begin to exert more negative...but I suspect the higher velocity is impinging on those domain spaces and preventing curvature to take over

( the MJO is in destructive interference with the AO ... which is the anti correlated state - but, I don't think the MJO is really even propagating/forcing in expanded HC as readily as it use to;  supposition )

The NAO is neggie - btw... But as Will pointed out, it's useless being so far E.  However, the AO being perhaps "legitimately" negative and appearing to descend in concert with the member mean ( GEFs..) this is generally more favorable for retrograde - so "maybe" the NAO modulates west given time ..if not diminishes then rematerializes as so. 

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