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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I think you've pissed in others Cheerio's.  Your's are already soggy/rotten. 

You guys are nuts..lol. It's a fine day...but when people start saying things like holding promises for storms 8 days out, it just leads to more weenie whining when it doesn't happen.

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Rookie question, looking at the big picture is the current system that exited yesterday and it's slow departure (still in Newfoundland Fri/Sat) along with the high way too far north in Quebec forcing the next system offshore? I imagine if the high was a bit further south it would force yesterday's system to exit quicker to the east and set things up for SNE later in the week.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

You guys are nuts..lol. It's a fine day...but when people start saying things like holding promises for storms 8 days out, it just leads to more weenie whining when it doesn't happen.

I'm joking.    People have been whining for 3 weeks now since out last real snowstorm.

The pattern has been horrible and looks to continue for another 10-14 days.

Upcoming weekend storm looks like a whiff unless we see drastic upper level changes.

Follow up storm is also a delicate balance but holds more promise.

 

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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of in agreement here ...  ( just using your post as a launch pad - am aware no one cares... )

Kind of a broad-stroked perspective but given the past 20 years ?   considering the lion's share of snow verification did not take place in a -NAO, and were in fact Pac guided, then adding that this recent NAO's handling: those two aggregated facets =  f* this man    

None of that lends to even wanting to engage in this as a hobby at this time.  Ha, can you imagine the professional that is by trade, forced to examine and eat the shit of this pattern?  I mean the poor schmuck - LOL

I just would rather swipe the eraser lever on this drawing toy known as Internet weather charts... and start a brand new paradigm.  If that means returning to the faster flow, progressive needle threading, so be it. We had better productivity that other way.   

No but seriously ... it seems this convoluted pattern/nebularity isn't handled very well.  That Euro 00z cannot be resolved - even by that particular model's touted acumen and monstrosity of daunting complexity built in, that's a convoluted exercise in fractal apoplexy it's trying to manage in the D5-10.   And given its own recent performance during this pattern ( *relative to just that regime ) ... well, it's beyond its wheelhouse anyway.   

What leaps out at me through it all... the PNA - go wonder ... Pac guided ;)   ... we just can't seem to pop a western ridge/+PNAP expression, which is needed for basic wave position mechanical arguments.   

I get this from an operational forecaster's standpoint, but from a snow lover's standpoint, this pattern still holds serious potential, no? Even if the models can't handle the huge artic anoms and even at risk of suppression, this has got to be a better pattern than what came before it. I do notice that large PNA ridges produce more consistently around here than periods of blocking.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys are nuts..lol. It's a fine day...but when people start saying things like holding promises for storms 8 days out, it just leads to more weenie whining when it doesn't happen.

Just busting balls, Nothing better to do at this time.

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8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I get this from an operational forecaster's standpoint, but from a snow lover's standpoint, this pattern still holds serious potential, no? Even if the models can't handle the huge artic anoms and even at risk of suppression, this has got to be a better pattern than what came before it. I do notice that large PNA ridges produce more consistently around here than periods of blocking.

It does ... sure... I was just musing to Will in that blown up storm thread ... read that - it sort of offers some perspective. 

Namely, if faced with the same hemispheric look in the models, as they were selling ( and trends prior notwithstanding...), the whole of it would be wise to consider a more favorable outcome for snow and at least impact of some kind.  This was weirdly nuanced 'wiggles' in the NAO down the stretch, weak-ish S/W mechanical forcing in the flow.  Idiosyncratic if you will -. Altogether it didn't 'synergize' a better outcome - sort of defeated the original layout of potential.. 

it happens -

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26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing holds promise past 7 days out when it comes to storms. 

I was just gonna post...then saw your statement, and agree completely, 8-9 days out is a complete joke.  The potential system could never even materialize.  lol.,
 

Even Saturday’s supposed system could evolve or morph or dissipate on modeling.  

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A big part of this hobby is to discuss potential even at d8. If all we did was discuss today’s or tomorrow’s weather...I wouldn’t waste my time. So If you can’t disparse your emotions from tracking then you should probably only post in the nowcast obs threads. You’re safer there. 

If you subscribe to the notion that models need to show a hit for YBY 4 runs in a row for 5 days straight...you’ll go broke. Otherwise, model chaos should be baked into your thought process and thus, should not be regurgitated over and over again. 

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