RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's slightly more northwest of 0z Just keep the signal there and trend the northern stream more favorably over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just keep the signal there and trend the northern stream more favorably over the next couple days. What I don't like as that all the ensembles are very supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Sorry ... models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this? is not a very convincingly useful block ... Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’ I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I don't like as that all the ensembles are very supressed. We’ll need the northern stream to catch up some but with a developing anti-cyclonic flow, I think it’s doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 As one can see on the op runs, No shortage of tracking systems. We’ll have our chances. Honestly, not much more you can ask in winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I don't like as that all the ensembles are very supressed. If today is any indication, it doesn't matter what anything says until we're 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As one can see on the op runs, No shortage of tracking systems. We’ll have our chances. Honestly, not much more you can ask in winter. EPS just looks classic. We stressed mid month but some grasshoppers have zero patience 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As one can see on the op runs, No shortage of tracking systems. We’ll have our chances. Honestly, not much more you can ask in winter. Looks dry for 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Probably happens when we return to Chicago MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Top 3 CIPS analogs for the Jan 8th storm: 1. December 2009 2. January 2016 3. Boxing Day 2010 Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Whiff next weekend on euro.Are you really putting much stock in euro?Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Weekend Storm Potential Following Monday's brief episode of inclement weather, medium range ensemble guidance is signaling a storm system to pass out to sea over the weekend, underneath the developing NAO block. However, it does seem close enough to warrant vigilance over the course of the week. It appears as though the day to watch is primarily Saturday. ECMWF Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: Canadian Ensemble Mean: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 I think the EPS looks "best" right now.....GEPS worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Top 3 CIPS analogs for the Jan 8th storm: 1. December 2009 2. January 2016 3. Boxing Day 2010 Very interesting It does seem like a boxing day setup. Not saying the sensible weather impacts will be the same, but the overlook reminds me of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sorry ... models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this? is not a very convincingly useful block ... Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’ I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Top 3 CIPS analogs for the Jan 8th storm: 1. December 2009 2. January 2016 3. Boxing Day 2010 Very interesting Illustrates the risk that y'all in the mid atlantic might be slightly better situated for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Pretty clear-cut southern stream SECS/MECS on analogs, which makes sense given the slightly southernly location of that block, as tip mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: If today is any indication, it doesn't matter what anything says until we're 12 hours out. The hemispheric pattern is a little easier to nail down than the nuances of a phase to within 50 mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Pretty clear-cut southern stream SECS/MECS on analogs, which makes sense given the slightly southernly location of that block, as tip mentioned. Yea, not in love with that look. Majority of the region can score a major event, but you can take the SNE upper tier off of the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It does seem like a boxing day setup. Not saying the sensible weather impacts will be the same, but the overlook reminds me of it. I agree that it's likely to be load blown SW deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met I get what he means by the block slipping south a bit. It's not an ideal look for us, but I still see plenty of blocking in the Davis Strait. Strikes me as the type of storm I'd complain about, while posters from CT ostracize me for bitching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree that it's likely to be load blown SW deal. Contingent upon how much help we get from the northern stream. I think there could be a minor amount of interaction which would lead to a more mid atl and south coast hit. Obv I’m hedging at d6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Contingent upon how much help we get from the northern stream. I think there could be a minor amount of interaction which would lead to a more mid atl and south coast hit. Obv I’m hedging at d6. Yea, not my type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 That one fails, I'll give it one more before calling fail on the Jan 2011 talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Probably happens when we return to Chicago MLK weekend. We all know you’ll be on the first flight back if a big one is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 55 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met...lol. Yeah I confused you by using the expression ‘useful to us’ ... really the impetus there was just the NAO handling alone. ...but if the blocking were batter positioned it may parlay your next system there. Which could be okay anyway ... just sayn’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The little vort out of canada that comes late to the party ruins the chances for next weekend wave. Who knows if that little pos is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That one fails, I'll give it one more before calling fail on the Jan 2011 talk. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cat 2 sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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