CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: We just seem to have no damn cold air. I'd like to believe the PAC improves but that seems to always be 10 days away. It looks fine. Big ridge out west. Cold will be enough. You don’t need Arctic air. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: We just seem to have no damn cold air. I'd like to believe the PAC improves but that seems to always be 10 days away. Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well put. But Nobody was expecting ’11 or ‘15 at those times either....you don’t expect those, they just happen on rare occasions when the pattern is conducive. That’s about all you can say. Right if it happens, sweet. But I think many expect those results when we talk about things looking good. I’m just saying that we shouldn’t always expect those kind of seasons when we say things look favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I just want the grass covered for more than a couple days. Low low bar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everything looks pretty good. As long as you aren’t expecting 2011 or 2015 you’ll hopefully be happy. Don’t fuk with our emotions like that. Go 2011 or go spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California... That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks fine. Big ridge out west. Cold will be enough. You don’t need Arctic air. Maybe shades of March 2018 with each progressive storm having more cold to work with? I guess this December's period was like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Maybe shades of March 2018 with each progressive storm having more cold to work with? I guess this December's period was like that too. I actually mentioned March 18 a week or so ago. Seems similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California... That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all. I've been out all day.....is guidance shifting the blocking south of Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks fine. Big ridge out west. Cold will be enough. You don’t need Arctic air. It certainly helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Seen folks talking about truly upper echelon potential......you need arctic air around to achieve that, at least in January, anyway....I'm not referring to just temps and I don't necessarily mean P-Type issues. Its tough to pull off a true upper tier systems in mid January without arctic air. You have more margin for error at peak climo with respect to temps and reasonably large systems....but good luck pulling widespread 20"+ in mid January without arctic air. I'm not complaining about it...just stating an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 I'm sure @ORH_wxman can hep me here....name the January events that dropped widespread 20"+ over a relatively large area without a true arctic airmass....probably a fairly short list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... I'm not going to sugarcoat it, or try to spin it or rationalize it, the last 24 hours of runs are frustrating for winter drama/storm enthusiasts ( ...which is really more like 'model cinema enthusiasts' .. ) I'm sort of kicking myself for not bringing this up two days ago - kind of obvious... I think I might have mentioned it (certainly thought about it) but I just didn't bother to emphasize the aspect. We're lacking isohypsic gradient ... when for 10 years, we had way too much of it! ..Ironically, but these 500 mb charted features are just not deep enough. They are shallow by January climatology. You're talking closed or quasi closed(ing) features that are 540+ DM dz ... I've seen June troughs that deep wooo! That's indicative of a mild 500 mb (relative to both season and what's going on around them).. The 500 mb wind velocities reflect that, circuitously wending around said features on the order of 50 .. 80 kts. Just a month ago, the ambient was almost twice that! Forget the S/W... Anyway, these S/W and features are lacking mechanical power. See, re this 1/4 system in the foreground ...it's not helping its track positions.. You get a torsional feedback that resists its 'drift momentum' from more strength, because deeper anchors sooner. This thing is paltry ...it's closing one isohypses... and the associated sfc low is a terrifying 996 mbs...so yeah.. it's drifting out. The other aspect is just giga motions associated with the NAO handling in the models. Nuances in the total structure of the NAO as it blossoms its block over the western limb is a bit shaky in the last 24 hours. The GFS runs are hem-hawing and trying to make it a S based NAO ... not sure that has the same "slowing" kinematic influence on this 1/4 thing. The Euro still has it more D. Str. however ..and yet it still sends this thing east into taunt distances.. I think really we could benefit from a stronger input to help anchor this sooner. That was more suggestive four days ago ... but, since... You know, we've been consummately correcting late mid range systems less amplified as they near in time - maybe remember that. Answers my earlier question...I'd rather see the GFS do that, than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure @ORH_wxman can hep me here....name the January events that dropped widespread 20"+ over a relatively large area without a true arctic airmass....probably a fairly short list. 1/12/11 off the top of my head. Prob not many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: I wouldn’t be quoting anything Cohen says. That guy is the laughing stock of the met community 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/12/11 off the top of my head. Prob not many others. I thought there was arctic air around for that? I was in the teens when it began, so it was a decent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wouldn’t be quoting anything Cohen says. That guy is the laughing stock of the met community Just posting it but I don't see how the blocking is that strong like Feb 2010 with the PNA like what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Just posting it but I don't see how the blocking is that strong like Feb 2010 with the PNA like what we have. There’s question if he’s even got a met degree. All he does is look at GFS stuff. Find a tweet that he doesn’t use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought there was arctic air around for that? I was in the teens when it began, so it was a decent airmass. It was colder than our airmasses for the next week but i don’t think I’d qualify it as arctic. It was like -5C 850 antecedent. I don’t remember it being in the teens in that one. Maybe like mid 20s on the cold side of the CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s question if he’s even got a met degree. All he does is look at GFS stuff. Find a tweet that he doesn’t use it He uses ECMWF, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: He uses ECMWF, too... I’m telling you.. he is widely ridiculed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was colder than our airmasses for the next week but i don’t think I’d qualify it as arctic. It was like -5C 850 antecedent. I don’t remember it being in the teens in that one. Maybe like mid 20s on the cold side of the CF. Fair enough. One event.....I rest my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m telling you.. he is widely ridiculed Not arguing that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Even as depicted, it looked like colder air was moving in. You could see that at the end of the euro op. I think it looks fine as far as temps go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m telling you.. he is widely ridiculed by who? Does he post here? just curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fair enough. One event.....I rest my case. I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. What was a 20"+'er in Jan 78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: What was a 20"+'er in Jan 78? 1/19-20/78....not even sure I’d qualify it as “widespread” 20 inches but BOS had 21.4 I think. It was their biggest snowfall on record at the time...a record that would last about 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. Jan '18? Although that was a cold antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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