Juliancolton Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 hours ago, forkyfork said: snowblowers are for weaklings Worse than that, they're tantamount to sacrilege. Snow should be shaped into tidy piles with all due reverence, not mutilated and strewn back into the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still shovel it...great workout. Here is the December review with a brief preview for January. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/december-2020-verification-january-2020.html That PNA really killed my temp call nationally...like inverse. lol Locally it was still decent. Agree, shoveling is a great workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I just run out the snowblower in the spring. Same with my mower. Both are 15ish years old. Engines are fine. other parts not so much. Same here. Never had a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: a distant memory, now Yeah only been 2 weeks since snow blowers were used........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Typical caveats apply, but that is a monstrosity of a ridge out in the plains for Jan 8th threat. Shame there seems to be a s/w diving in from Canada that stops a mature evolution from happening on this particular run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Long post: It does seem like this blocking pattern isn't perpetually 10 days away on the ensembles, as both the EPS and the GEFS bring out the purple coloring at hr 96. Of course, it isn't immediately in an ideal location. I wonder if there's much precedent for blocks moving north instead of retrograding west as I've often heard about. Looking at both the american and the european suites, it does seem like maybe the path is NW, so some sort of a compromise. To my eye, it looks like this miller B Jan 4th storm bombs out near Newfoundland and sort of runs into those higher heights like a battering ram and pushes it NW? I'm not a scientist, so I don't know much of the physical processes involved. Wisdom says that our best chances occur at the formation and dissolution of these blocks, with the best chance at the dissolution, as some modified cP air has usually been dislodged south at that point, which is what I believe happened with our 12/16-17 storm? So, this wisdom leads me to assign Jan 8-9 and some time mid-late January (maybe the 18th-20th) as the most legitimate threats. I'd be interested to see if this verifies. We also seem to be southern stream dominated at first, with northern stream chances improving if we somehow get some PAC ridging going on mid-month. I think most in NE would agree, with the exception of some far SW Connecticut people, that Manitoba Maulers forced under a block is a much preferable synopsis to a southern stream event. Anyways, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but we haven't had actual sustained -NAO conditions in January for quite some time. According to this table I snipped off of CPC's site, we haven't averaged a neg NAO in Jan since 2010 and 2011, and obviously, we know the history of those winters. Many of us prefer one of those to the other, but the point remains that we haven't seen this kind of stuff in a while. I wonder if we can actually pull it off. edit: I can recall 2016, before the blizzard, having something like -4 SDs AO conditions, so I'd assume there was some extended period of -NAO there as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The Para GFS is way different than the GFS. GFS has a huge ridge in the east at 384 while the Para has a big storm gearing up down south. I mean come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: The Para GFS is way different than the GFS. GFS has a huge ridge in the east at 384 while the Para has a big storm gearing up down south. I mean come on 16 days out is a long time for small differences to manifest themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Still a signal on the EPS for whatever happens next Friday or Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I won’t hate on Forky for the snowblower comment...I used to think the exact same way but then I bought a house that happened to have a wrap around driveway...on a curve in the road (so the snowbanks get obscene)...LOL. Just brutal shoveling that. I did it the first winter in this house including 3 storms of 12”+ (1/4/18, 3/7-8/18, 3/13/18)...after that I said “never again”. We paid our shovel/snowscoop dues in Ft. Kent, avg winter 130"+. (And again for 2008-09 and 09-10 when our Craftsman Trac-26's power transfer mechanism wore out - would travel backwards but not forwards. Took it apart, found the ruined parts, unable to find anyone that made them 25+ years after My dad had bought the critter.) I siphon as much as possible back into the gas can, then run the blower dry. Next fall, gas it up, hit the primer 3X and it usually fires up on the 2nd-3rd pull. (Only 10 yr old, though.) Has cord for electric start but I've never had to use it. The Craftsman wouldn't pull-start when much under 20°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 22 hours ago, forkyfork said: snowblowers are for weaklings 15 foot driveway? Move out here with the 100 plus 30 ft wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 15 foot driveway? Move out here with the 100 plus 30 ft wide. He lives in an inner city that snows once a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 guess i'm not getting any more snow this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The main reason I brought a snowblower this week is for the fun of watching snow. I actually enjoy shoveling but it takes a toll on my skeletal muscular system. So in my mid 70s I cave. Bought a cordless rechargeable using the same battery as my chain saw and soon to be purchased lawn mower. It’s limited to 13 inch depth but in storms of 10+ I prefer shoveling or snow blowing in pieces. No way would I shovel >8 all at once. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Ok so, are we still looking good with regard to the upcoming pattern...so everybody can maybe use their snowblowers. 36 hrs of blower talking...and nothing on the upcoming pattern. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 You can see the impact of no deep PAC ridging here. The anomalous arctic rips apart the polar vortex and the cA air becomes cP as it's displaced southeastward, but without a PAC assisting, it just kind of dies on the east shore of Hudson Bay. The GEFS and EPS are in lockstep with this idea. So a great pattern for storms, but not much cold available? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: You can see the impact of no deep PAC ridging here. The anomalous arctic rips apart the polar vortex and the cA air becomes cP as it's displaced southeastward, but without a PAC assisting, it just kind of dies on the east shore of Hudson Bay. The GEFS and EPS are in lockstep with this idea. So a great pattern for storms, but not much cold available? Well let’s hope it’s just cold enough. ..? And wasn’t the pacific supposed to be coming around after the 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Think it's always been a race between improving pac and how long blocking stays. Thought that was 15th through Feb 1 as the sweet timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Think it's always been a race between improving pac and how long blocking stays. Thought that was 15th through Feb 1 as the sweet timeframe. I think the pattern will improve somewhat...but the idea of a great pattern with blocking and a good pac all coming together seems to be getting pushed back as we have seen before. I don’t buy anything but serviceable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Dam, Thursday night it was looking epic. Now it’s serviceable. Oh well, Easy come easy go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Weekend deal is closer on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Weekend deal is closer on the CMC As was gfs. Big signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Dam, Thursday night it was looking epic. Now it’s serviceable. Oh well, Easy come easy go. Yep. Weenies had better tuck it in when looking at the longer range this winter. Lorena Bobbitt is lurking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Yep. Weenies had better tuck it in when looking at the longer range this winter. Lorena Bobbitt is lurking. Out of curiosity what went wrong with the LR from couple days ago? Did blocking disappear? Did the improving pac look disappear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Out of curiosity what went wrong with the LR from couple days ago? Did blocking disappear? Did the improving pac look disappear? Ensemble wise nothing much has changed. The pac change is still showing but both the EPS and the GEFS are showing signs the AO and NAO could move towards neutral by day 15. Given we are in a La Niña that’s entirely possible as mid January approaches. At the same time though ensembles have been trying to show La Niña type pattern shifts on and off at the end of the long range since late November and have continually failed. Even the weeklies are trying to show it somewhat at week 4. It’s possible the true La Niña change never happens because so far every time it pops on models it never comes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Out of curiosity what went wrong with the LR from couple days ago? Did blocking disappear? Did the improving pac look disappear? Nothing... it’s just that some are expecting it snow to every day when a great pattern is being projected. When it doesn’t, the shakes and cold sweat begin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Out of curiosity what went wrong with the LR from couple days ago? Did blocking disappear? Did the improving pac look disappear? Nothing went wrong What went wrong ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Lol at the weens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing... it’s just that some are expecting it snow to every day when a great pattern is being projected. When it doesn’t, the shakes and cold sweat begin. Yeah I see no changes. People need to check themselves before they wreck themselves. Big weens in your mouth is bad for your health. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I mean good luck trying to figure this out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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