CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 You also have a better DGZ north too. I don’t know, unless the block is just gonna eat this away, I feel like Canadian sort of makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: You also have a better DGZ north too. I don’t know, unless the block is just gonna eat this away, I feel like Canadian sort of makes sense. Yeah.... looks like potentially 1-3” over the course of like 24 hours. Mood snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs continues the 1st2nd threat, and cmc looks like a decent setup here if secondary takes over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah.... looks like potentially 1-3” over the course of like 24 hours. Mood snows Temps may get borderline. I could see some non accumulating 33F snows there if it’s very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lock the gfs up for feb1-2. Long duration stalled miller b. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Will it snow for over a week straight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We party Super Bowl weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I honestly still think the 29th system comes northwest last second. Short range are not as robust with the PV lobe in Ontario as the global models are and they show more amplification in the flow then the ICON, GFS and GEM models. The NAM 3km, 12km, RGEM, all like a more amplified slower southern stream system that emerges off the NC coast, while ICON is all the way in SC! There are three camps still, little to no interaction with the PV lobe, little interaction, and major interaction. We will have to see what happens if anything once the energy off the West Coast settles in the Desert Southwest. Once that is situated we will have a better idea as it will get the first shortwave out of the picture. Severe threat looks to have two pulses in the next seven days across the Deep South. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 So NAM is the only crap model for Tuesday hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lock the gfs up for feb1-2. Long duration stalled miller b. I'm not locking this up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Miller B potential on the gefs Hopefully this doesn't get shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the gfs is right I would think it’s better near the pike area and even N and E. 925-850 actually gets mild in SW CT whereas you have a better WF signature to the northeast. I’d imagine that would help. But then again gfs may be wrong. For us SW CT folks we need Canadian suite to be correct with the 4 to 5. American and Ukmet only 1 to 2 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: For us SW CT folks we need Canadian suite to be correct with the 4 to 5. American and Ukmet only 1 to 2 down here. 2-4 would be pretty nice if the cmc/rgem are right. Only the NAM seems to truly give us nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: 2-4 would be pretty nice if the cmc/rgem are right. Only the NAM seems to truly give us nothing. True. Also just looked GFS v16 gives us 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It looks like we will finally have snow on the ground next week since all the globals thus far agree on that. No guarantee, though, and the king could be the fly in the ointment. We'll see soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Cept we are talking seasonal not back decades Oh, my bad....I think seasonal trends have some value, but am not a disciple of persistence forecasting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Disagree with what ? ..." Is it likely probably not. .." - the point was just not to do this 86 autopilot act that's really based upon emotion - not you per se but it's palpable and equally annoying. Boxing Day was a significant cyclone that was routinely taken E much in the same way and corrected N in the last 48 hours ...sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings out to a non-suspecting demography ...and the regulars in here rushing to make up for the 5 dayls worth of 'model cinema heroin' they missed out on... Granted, there's been modeling upgrades along these tail-end of Moore's Law in technological advancement years since, ... in theory, improving the A.I. engine of the models...But, not joining in with that faithful congregation inside that temple of our electronic gods, in an era that's inherently got almost N/S in the mid ranges ..might just be a healthy degree if incredulity and skepticism - So, if you disagree with that? Okay - I got no problem with disagreeing LOL... Look, I'm not a meat ball either. This winter is a donkey dong boning for the snow enthusiasts. I am a sympathetic, empathically aware human - unlike the girl of my dreams that recently turned out to be a sociopath ...but I digress - I disagree that: 1) Ridge axis over the plains is optimal, as I would prefer INVO the Rockies. 2) I disagree that there is still a realistic chance that this significsntly impacts us. Is this judgement at least partially biased by frustration...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will it snow for over a week straight? It has here until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: This is the period when the NAO relaxes. Might be the best chance. Yup... PNA rise, too - That featuring fits inside the Jan 28 - Feb 5th ( ~ ) window of fairly classic teleconnector signaling... In this case, the latter of which may be more trustworthy because of the 'telecon convergence' - ... Think of that as having two disparate statistical inference regions ... coming to the same conclusion at point X ... in this case, we be point X, and the disparate regions are the PNA and the NAO. Either has a correlation to exciting/preceding a NE storm in their own right - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Maybe someone could start a thread for Tuesday? Its two days out, and its getting a bit cumbersome to distinguish to which threat identified dialogue is referencing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: This is the period when the NAO relaxes. Might be the best chance. Yep. EPS has been hammering that consistently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep. EPS has been hammering that consistently. I dont care if my area sees a front end thump to rain while you get crushed. I just want some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'll sign for the GFS. Even gets a couple inches here by mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 New thread for Jan 26-27 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54423-jan-26-27-light-snows/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Pretty decent muthufukkas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree that: 1) Ridge axis over the plains is optimal, as I would prefer INVO the Rockies. 2) I disagree that there is still a realistic chance that this significsntly impacts us. Is this judgement at least partially biased by frustration...maybe. Ok, well you're disagreeing with the 'straw man' then, because I was just outlining ( like I said, ...) the less likely means to a better outcome. Also, the Dakotas ridge longitude is statistically clad - sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 looks like we have 3 snow events upcoming.. sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I can’t tell if people are serious or delusional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ok, well you're disagreeing with the 'straw man' then, because I was just outlining ( like I said, ...) the less likely means to a better outcome. Also, the Dakotas ridge longitude is statistically clad - sorry I'll take a Rockies ridge-sorriest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If boston received more than a coating the local tv.mets are.going to hear a ton of shit from the public after talking about this being ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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