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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

LOL. The 18z GFS takes a scalpel to Essex Co, ensuring we’re on the outside looking in. Incredible. 

Probably about an 80" chance that is how it works out.

Man, I can't wait to shed this 12 or so miles of useless latitude....it never does any good. And when it does, its during a useless, meager event.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly, I'll take a soaker, at this point....anything but this-

Kevin's delusions of Sou 'Easters have never looked so appealing....if you don't look at the screen name next to the post, you lure your interest into being piqued.

Delusional? We had damaging soueasters right thru Xmas Day

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm from Wilmington, so that area....I would mind further west, but I need to commute to Chelsea.

Snow is worth the trade in traffic.

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Crazy how every model skunks us with flurries 

This winter has really gotten to you.  Typically you'd be using that map to claim 3-6 region-wide.  :)

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For Thursday, we want the Rockies ridge to be taller, which needs a deeper trough west of California, which is influenced by the annoying meso-low near Kodiak Island, which is affected by the low coming off of Siberia...it's an endless chain!

If we can finesse just one variable in the equation...anyway, it's a real long shot, I will toss in the towel if 0z Monday doesn't show big improvements.

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yeah no this GFS run is again showing inconsistent handling of the eastern Canada and conjoining western limb of the NAO domain eddy -

00z the GFS had limited to no SPV fragmentation/interaction dropping in... 06z teensy bit more...12z adds another pinch ..now this one tries to bring it down again... Which is pushing this out because there's no way given the speed surplus of the jets involved can that capture and phase - so the only other option is to kick - but, we still have 120 hours to iron this out and that handling of the NAO space dictates what pushes that shit south vs leaves this thing along...

Alone I feel it has enough to correct N in time, and the ridge, W, is positioning near the Dakotas and that is climate friendly to an EC strikes. ... The other aspect is that the entrance region for the escaping jet fields off the EC are probably being flattened by said -NAO exertion...  Hence the due east motion of the deep layer... All of which is open to modulation in my mind but - that's not a forecast. Just a suggestion of what to look for on these next few runs.  When something of a bit more power got ingested into the grids/initialization of the 00z ..that's when this began to look better back east for storm enthusiasts. A stronger realization would help the lead S/W ridge rollout ..and feed back -  ways to go here...

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7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

For Thursday, we want the Rockies ridge to be taller, which needs a deeper trough west of California, which is influenced by the annoying meso-low near Kodiak Island, which is affected by the low coming off of Siberia...it's an endless chain!

If we can finesse just one variable in the equation...anyway, it's a real long shot, I will toss in the towel if 0z Monday doesn't show big improvements.

We kind of need the Rockies ridge to be over the Rockies, and not MN.

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