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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s NE CT ceiling. Here to Ginx? Flurries today nil?

Not optimistic there or for Ginxy. Too far east. It’s possible that advisory snows happen that far northeast but we’d need to see something more like the Ukie or one of the JV models. 

 

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Yeah... agree with Scott re the GEFs...

Noting the spread at TT is over the NW arc - tends to incline where the correction is more likely to occur in future cycles...

spread.jpg.807243e7fc9cbd47190e913c0c2f1cd4.jpg

I would also remind as I am sure for those with experience would concur ...this is a candidate for the N correction if I've ever seen one. And seeing the Euro outside of it's wheel-house trend even a little is right on that... Next run's a litttle more?  Than a again...then we're in..and we're still over the 4 D threshold..  It eerily portends to this member smear ..

We'll see - I too am not immune to the rigors of a punishing ennui/uninsprired atmosphere at least excuse imagined persistence ..but, struggling to maintain objectivity as it may be to do so.. I cannot preclude this thing not striking N of the M/A proper latitudes. 

This is all at this point predicated on the assumption that the -NAO exertion/suppressed storm track is being handled exact ... very sensitive however.  Slight nuanced if yet even undetectable to the almost 'unaided' eye may mean critical 3 deg latitude in pass ... and to re-iterate, big systems move small amounts and that involves disproportionately larger areas. 

Plus, this 12z GFS still looks like an OES meso concern for eastern Mass and SE NH/Cape ..That's a very cold antecedent air mass on a long shore wind getting set in there and I suspect that's grits everywhere in 22 F sting...with some streamers to 1/2 mi visibility ...  Too detailed for this range??  absolutely...but it goes along with the trope about 'not focusing on the eye of the hurricane' - this is the most powerful system of the season and appears with these subtle ridge alterations ...mm, sneaking up as a hemispherically footed deal - whether this hit or not...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... agree with Scott re the GEFs...

Noting the spread at TT is over the NW arc - tends to incline where the correction is more likely to occur in future cycles...

spread.jpg.807243e7fc9cbd47190e913c0c2f1cd4.jpg

I would also remind as I am sure for those with experience would concur ...this is a candidate for the N correction if I've ever seen one. And seeing the Euro outside of it's wheel-house trend even a little is right on that... Next run's a litttle more?  Than a again...then we're in..and we're still over the 4 D threshold..  It eerily portends to this member smear ..

We'll see - I too am not immune to the rigors of a punishing ennui/uninsprired atmosphere at least excuse imagined persistence ..but, struggling to maintain objectivity as it may be to do so.. I cannot preclude this thing not striking N of the M/A proper latitudes. 

This is all at this point predicated on the assumption that the -NAO exertion/suppressed storm track is being handled exact ... very sensitive however.  Slight nuanced if yet even undetectable to the almost 'unaided' eye may mean critical 3 deg latitude in pass ... and to re-iterate, big systems move small amounts and that involves disproportionately larger areas. 

Plus, this 12z GFS still looks like an OES meso concern for eastern Mass and SE NH/Cape ..That's a very cold antecedent air mass on a long shore wind getting set in there and I suspect that's grits everywhere in 22 F sting...with some streamers to 1/2 mi visibility ...  Too detailed for this range??  absolutely...but it goes along with the trope about 'not focusing on the eye of the hurricane' - this is the most powerful system of the season and appears with these subtle ridge alterations ...mm, sneaking up as a hemispherically footed deal - whether this hit or not...

Can someone post this map with a larger image?  Also, you can get this on TT?

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6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

This seems like a mid-atlantic special, with the ridge axis over the plains. Trying to not be looped in by the select few GEFS members which bring major amounts to SNE

This reminds me of the Jan 30 2010 event that hit the mid-Atlantic region while attending the 125th Blue Hill Observatory anniversary.  Kocin and Uccellini were wondering if they would get back into Baltimore, while we were sucking exhaust here in arctic cold from that one.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's the Jan 2000 I was waiting for.

Yeah, this is a mid-Atlantic special cut from the cloth of 1979 and the 1980s and 2000s, not the 2016s and 2010s. I should really learn though, that whenever we have these -5 sd AOs, the mid-Atlantic bears the brunt of the Archambault event.

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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, this is a mid-Atlantic special cut from the cloth of 1979 and the 1980s and 2000s, not the 2016s and 2010s. I should really learn though, that whenever we have these -5 sd AOs, the mid-Atlantic bears the brunt of the Archambault event.

They haven’t had snow since 2016 lol. They’re due for a good event. 

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