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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unfortunately, its the JMA, ICON and GEM that intrigue me most RE 1/29.....GEM and JMA come perilously close to dropping a PV lobe into that beast....ICON not quite as close. Don't see that as an option on the GFS and EURO.

Take a wild guess it which camp is right-

Add the GEFS to the JMA, ICON and GEM team.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS look to be threatening more PV lobe interaction this suite...nodding to what the JV guidance was suggesting last night at 00z....its even showing up in the QPF distribution, as the shield protrudes to the NW.

Watch that.....if that takes place, no one sweats QPF.

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS look to be threatening more PV lobe interaction this suite...nodding to what the JV guidance was suggesting last night at 00z....its even showing up in the QPF distribution, as the shield protrudes to the NW.

Watch that.....if that takes place, no one sweats QPF.

looking at the indies, there are 5-6 huge hits for SNE in that suite....there is some upside at least, something to watch as we move toward the 26th. 

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The Monday and Tuesday system has some sort of impact as usual.  I don’t think it’s big but it might influence the big one enough to make a difference, especially in SNE.  The lagging surface reflection that cuts across PA towards NYC Tuesday I think can eff stuff up possibly on the Thursday event.  Might want that feature to wash out even though I think it could deliver a surprise snowfall to western parts of this sub forum 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I'm not getting hopes up too much with it. I'd like to see the euro a little more on board and closer to the GFS. It's still a miss, but something like that at least allows some wiggles NW. 

Maybe I'm just delusional with hope. LOL.

No, I'm at the same place you are. Cute development, but not excited.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Monday and Tuesday system has some sort of impact as usual.  I don’t think it’s big but it might influence the big one enough to make a difference, especially in SNE.  The lagging surface reflection that cuts across PA towards NYC Tuesday I think can eff stuff up possibly on the Thursday event.  Might want that feature to wash out even though I think it could deliver a surprise snowfall to western parts of this sub forum 

Yea, I hope that fades quickly.

Sorry, Luke.

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25 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Man that thing is a beast... wherever it ends up going, could be THE event of the season. Having said that, if it’s a mid Atlantic crush job while we smoke exhaust. That’s gonna hurt, real, real bad.

I'm going to pray for a Jan '16 or March '17 type outcome with modeling latching on to massive latent heat release and a more amped outcome at the last minute. Don't expect the prayers to be answered however.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I'm going to pray for a Jan '16 or March '17 type outcome with modeling latching on to massive latent heat release and a more amped outcome at the last minute. Don't expect the prayers to be answered however.

How about a stronger Jan 15 system.  The upside is huge for the 28/29th system, the problem is, how do we get to that solution?  Right now, there are three options: 1.) PV lobe phases west and earlier like Ray said, 2.) a partial phase happens too late and a non event happens, 3.) no phase happens and we get a 12z GFS solution where the E Massachusetts coast gets a long NE fetch of cold arctic air producing OES!

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3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm going to pray for a Jan '16 or March '17 type outcome with modeling latching on to massive latent heat release and a more amped outcome at the last minute. Don't expect the prayers to be answered however.

Gonna be hard to get that type of trend with this blocking in place. Best chance is to keep that PV lobe in central Canada close enough that it may try and inject a little energy into it or at least be far enough west that it bumps up the heights downstream in Quebec. 

 

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I am guessing there is a large spread as well with the EURO ensemble individual members.  I would like to see the next few days how the interaction with the PV lobe behaves in the guidance.  Today's 12z runs have intensified the surface low into a sub 960mb low.  Honestly, with a circulation as large as the models have it, there is a high chance someone east of the CT River Valley gets a few inches, maybe low end warning criteria snows.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna be hard to get that type of trend with this blocking in place. Best chance is to keep that PV lobe in central Canada close enough that it may try and inject a little energy into it or at least be far enough west that it bumps up the heights downstream in Quebec. 

 

I am so sick of the blocking...its been nothing but a death sentence for this winter. I get the risk of cutters, but there is no way in hell you can tell me that we wouldn't have had more snow without it.

This is like a toned down 2010 with less snow. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna be hard to get that type of trend with this blocking in place. Best chance is to keep that PV lobe in central Canada close enough that it may try and inject a little energy into it or at least be far enough west that it bumps up the heights downstream in Quebec. 

 

Will, I noticed with the GFS runs that showed an impact from the 29th system showed a much stronger ridging presence between the PV lobe over central southern Canada, and the large vortex over the 50/50 location near Labrador.  If the PV lobe stays west and does entrain some energy the surface low will track further west as it gets captured and intensifies with a sub 528dm upper level closed low.  850mb temps are extremely cold as modeled!  With a hurricane force wind field as large as it is being depicted, there is a strong chance for at least a few bands of accumulating snows.  The 12z UKMET did move more northwest this afternoon compared to the run last night!

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The biggest difference is not with the central southern Canada (Ontario Vortex) but the vortex east of Labrador.  The vortex north of New Foundland crashes the growing ridging ahead of the main shortwave trough as it exits off the Mid Atlantic coast.   The GFS and ensemble mean compared to the GEM show that the GFS suite is more amplified with the ridging over the Maritimes and NW Atlantic Ocean, while the GEM and the models that are less friendly crash the ridging and deamplify the shortwave trough therefore it enters the western Atlantic Ocean off of NC instead of the Delmarva.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The biggest difference is not with the central southern Canada (Ontario Vortex) but the vortex east of Labrador.  The vortex north of New Foundland crashes the growing ridging ahead of the main shortwave trough as it exits off the Mid Atlantic coast.   The GFS and ensemble mean compared to the GEM show that the GFS suite is more amplified with the ridging over the Maritimes and NW Atlantic Ocean, while the GEM and the models that are less friendly crash the ridging and deamplify the shortwave trough therefore it enters the western Atlantic Ocean off of NC instead of the Delmarva.

Your posts are actually getting much better on average. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Your posts are actually getting much better on average. 

Our miracle comes with the models hopefully over estimating the short term strength of the confluence over the Maritimes and ahead of the shortwave trough as it reaches 75W longitude.  Right now, the best bet for changes are the placement of the PV lobe over Ontario, potential phase and timing, as well as the confluence/vortex circulation over Labrador.

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12z ICON is the most dramatic with the strong presence of the vortex over Maritimes.  I am guessing since it is way off the reservation compared to the GFS, GEM and others, the ICON is the least likely solution and therefore a southern outlier with the UKMET, except that model came more northwest compared to the 00z run which was off Bermuda.

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Basically you have a consensus when confidence increases that an event will happen.  This begins to occur as you get within four days of a single event time period.  However, since the models are still at great disagreements at day 5 still with the handling of the Labrador (50/50 -NAO vortex) vortex and the Ontario (-AO) vortex and how they will interact with the 29th energetic shortwave trough, uncertainty for the 29th is still at great lengths.  Right now, I am declaring the next 48 hours as a toss up to whether or not this system impacts SNE.  The 26th system is dead for anyone east of the Connecticut River Valley, anyone east and south of the Pike is in the game for 2-4" still.  Right now, we can just sit and wait for whatever the models trend towards the next two days!  Oh and the energy for the 29th storm is still off the British Columbia west coast!

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