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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The squeeze is already on full display for the 29th on the GFS....going to end up well south of the 0z/6z runs

Yep this one is done

Winter ****ing suck

 

This would be an epic pattern if there wasn't alot of blocking.  Be careful what you wish for with a negative NAO.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice to wake up to suprise coating. GFS suite was entertaining last night, but zero chances of anything appreciable through the end of the month here. 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I liked that we got a morning coating about 3 days ago here, a different event than the Mass one 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if Luke gets one of those weenie bands when everything else around him shrivels except a narrow frontal band. Could see that.
But man what a beast off the Delmarva. That’s close.

I’d def still watch for a surprise on that system. You can see how it would work out...you keep a kink in that h5 shortwave as it crosses SNE longitude rather than becoming almost totally flat. When the little curl is maintained, those are the solutions that spit out 0.4 or 0.5 qpf. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I am in the minority, but there is absolutely nothing worse than a"favorable" pattern that just doesn't produce. I would take 2012 over that,  any day. Its comfortable, and you aren't left with blue balls because it's like chilling with your sister...its just not an issue. This winter is like the hot chick who let's you buy her dinner, then tells you her grandmother died and runs off once the dude she really wants to bone texts her. 

On paper,  you're "closer".....boing, but closer is just code for investment of time and money with zero ultimate return.

I'm sure her DUFF will take care of your needs around 3/20 when a few sloppy inches piles up on your Celica, which flips to rain and starts melting right as she departs.

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Something got absorbed into the GFS 00z initialization overnight S of the Gulf of Alaska. It had triggered an immediate physical response ... culminating in significantly deeper, larger down stream result during the 28-29th.

So, as we know they're now modeling high impact risk scenarios ... cute.  What leaps out at me is that these models are less 'weird' looking, though?

Prior run had variant depth and middling sized handling, cycle to cycle, ranging from due east motions, to unrealistic SE motions from Cape Hatteras to S of Bermuda ( at exotic pressure depths )... Stuff that's not impossible - no.  But less seen historically.  Just in general 'spraying' solutions within that envelope of poor continuity.  

Now ?     - far more climatology apropos for one. But the 00z to 06z GFS just look deliberate - sometimes ya just gotta say it that way.  And, when trends do that and not the other way - lending to distraction - that always raises an eyebrow for me. Passing through the mid range? mm..that times to Pacific data-assimilation issue frankly, as suspiciously culpable. 

So far these trends still limit along/astride the middle EC, but by virtue of size and how these depiction integrate the surrounding synoptic medium, there are extended concerns that give us our own headaches this far N.  I would option for more impact up our way, though  ;)  It's a long time at 120 hours in this arena of low skill, to maintain such a delicate placement of an elephant that big. Any subtle 'giga' motion in the model handling of a system that large ... can implicate a beefier output/impact over regions that are comparatively small relative to the size of the entity being tracked.   Sort of like looking at a boulder careening down a ravine from across a valley, but when you get up close you realize that the boulder was the size of a Colonial mansion ... You bump this entity 100 naut mile N of the 06z GFS track, you got blizzard conditions in Providence -

There is a bomb here... thunder snow wind acceleration, ...slow down do to torque resistance.. The whole shmack in the scenario  for DCA-PHL/NJ. To me, it is somewhat reminiscent of 'PD1' ... though I don't care to get into whether that's an analog, just in practice/behavior. This thing may NESDIS' the hell out of that region, with light snow and biting wind and nastiness to the Pike. Whilst virga undulating skies tickle tendrils to tree tops, flurries and grains ... teast to S VT/NH.

Headache 1:   ... OES is a factor over eastern zones, S of PWM.  The 06z even models a QPF streamer extending a thousand KM hosing into eastern MA.. But, the thing's circulation is massive...it's has a long shore fetch emanating deep in the Atlantic, where there is going to be a mixing in the 850 to 925 mb levels of that moisture source with nascent polar-arctic air aligning to the N,  helping to ignite activity in the mixing of the column... It is risky to speak of such details... I am not forecasting that?  I am attempting to elucidate the challenges of a system that large and the kinds of extended concerns that will smear N. 

I'm also wondering about tides in that... If this thing does slow down taking a couple tide cycles to succeed the distance from the Del Marva to the outer G-string waters before truly pulling away, ...at 965 mb depths and a +PP draped over SE Canada means there will be a oceanic response ... long swell arrival during a high tide or two.  All this on the table...

Headache 2:  ... regards the surrounding synoptic idiosyncrasies that are sort of esoteric or obscure about this thing.

It should be noted that the GGEM has been a N. outlier all along..

It is hard to say if these GFS trends are joining that camp, or if that camp is lucky, and this sudden movement toward a deeper systemic vastness and overal structural just happens to align.  But the spooked aspect deals in synoptic super-structure. The flow scaffold is trended toward less 'curved' tendency exiting the 35th parallel extending E of the coast into the Atlantic/Bermuda particularly sneaky in the last 2 to 3 cycles.  It's a "behavior tendency," not so evinced point to point in runs.

The GFS/GGEM want to hold the axis of that ridge back toward the Dakotas (~) .. Hello!  That is the climate axis for nailing the shit out of DCA-PWM.  So DCA-PHL/NJ impact scenario is has the historical inference; whether that comes further N is also acceptable - just not modeled so much at this time.  That is probably owing to the large NAO circulation - which may in fact be crucially modulating/correcting an amount that brings this just enough.  I've seen these deformation smears lift N inside of 84 hours before.  Jan 6-9th of 1996 did that... I cannot rule that out at this point... no way.  Not when noticing the behavior trend to limit the SE calving motion of the previous solution ..correcting N, and, noticing the upstream riding/positioning.

I don't know if these trends are finished at 120+ hours in an intrinsically bad model performing hemisphere ... The NAO ( or transitive Pacific influence; whichever one wants to blame) is a tricky and delicate matter off the EC. It matters, because the above tendencies are already creating a correction window to bring this N in these guidance'... 

I don't believe the Euro is infallible in this regard.  The GFS may even lose this signal again... But I wouldn't bring it off the table if it does... 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I am in the minority, but there is absolutely nothing worse than a"favorable" pattern that just doesn't produce. I would take 2012 over that,  any day. Its comfortable, and you aren't left with blue balls because it's like chilling with your sister...its just not an issue. This winter is like the hot chick who let's you buy her dinner, then tells you her grandmother died and runs off once the dude she really wants to bone texts her. 

On paper,  you're "closer".....boing, but closer is just code for investment of time and money with zero ultimate return.

It is kind of amazing just how close synoptically we are to two warning criteria storms within 3 days of each other. One of them potentially a KU. 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is kind of amazing just how close synoptically we are to two warning criteria storms within 3 days of each other. One of them potentially a KU. 

 

Looking at the whole picture from the glass half full perspective....the whole system looks different than it did just 24 hours ago and we still haven't gotten past the 26th, so maybe the 29th is the sneaky under the radar system for us....

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d def still watch for a surprise on that system. You can see how it would work out...you keep a kink in that h5 shortwave as it crosses SNE longitude rather than becoming almost totally flat. When the little curl is maintained, those are the solutions that spit out 0.4 or 0.5 qpf. 

I’ve never seen a system look like this on models here before. I feel like you do. Granted however, most of my model stalking has been done in the Midwest. My thoughts are “how does it just halt like that? WTF is that”?

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d def still watch for a surprise on that system. You can see how it would work out...you keep a kink in that h5 shortwave as it crosses SNE longitude rather than becoming almost totally flat. When the little curl is maintained, those are the solutions that spit out 0.4 or 0.5 qpf. 

I think for wrn areas maybe. But this has the look of watching radar just shred N and E of BDL. At least for here, I'd like to see a push more to the N and keep the s/w from being strung out.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think for wrn areas maybe. But this has the look of watching radar just shred N and E of BDL. At least for here, I'd like to see a push more to the N and keep the s/w from being strung out.

Oh yeah for sure. Eastern areas are in the worst spot. For here I’m kind of hoping for something that extends from like ALB and goes ESE across my area....but the best chance for something bigger is def down in CT..esp SW CT. 

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@Typhoon Tip

Difficult conundrum up here at the NH border...very remote chance this thing gets big snows up here. Knowing that, it's tough for me to cheer on a north trend that likely maximizes my pain pulling another Jan 2016...course of least regret is to wish it south, so the pain is muted by distance between myself and big snows. Close whiff on a south of pike KU would be the shit cherry on the terd sundae.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah compared to both 00z and 06z. 

Wow, they look great....4-5 days out, if we were in the bullseye we would be saying, don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, good luck to the Mid Atlantic, they have had a rough for years....maybe they score here, but I would expect that track to shift N or S at this point, and by quite a bit with any shifts in that block

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On the GGEM, the PV shifted well north. But the system then went from closed to a flatter, open wave. Can't figure out why -- it almost looks like the PV diving further south spiked the eastern edge of the ridge, which amplified the storm.

gem_z500_vort_us_24.png

gem_z500_vort_us_22.png

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was also looking at synoptics too.

GEFS look to be threatening more PV lobe interaction this suite...nodding to what the JV guidance was suggesting last night at 00z....its even showing up in the QPF distribution, as the shield protrudes to the NW.

Watch that.....if that takes place, no one sweats QPF.

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