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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It likely is, it always has been a bias of the models

The blocking is already here, though....that is a medium to long range issue. It's not a verification bias lol if anything,  they will break it down too fast.

Tell the dawn to go back to sleep

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The 29th system is the one we all want, not the crap system on the 26th.  I would greatly sacrifice that 1-3" potential over a 976mb low at the benchmark potentially.  Remember, we do not need a massive sub 970mb low at the benchmark for a widespread historic event, the Jan 05 blizzard and Jan 15 blizzards were both between 980 and 976mb as they approached the benchmark.  Also the large circulation reminds me of the FEB 08, 2016 snow event, coastal blizzard!

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cmc is south for the 26th, bone dry.

Totally different than other guidance and the 12z run up north. Amazing how it changes from run to run. Prob irrelevant north of the pike but for your area it matters a lot. 

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