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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Strangely I recall past winters where the phrase of the season was "if we could just get a block". Now that we have it, the phrase is "if we just didn't have a block".  

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL Some function a work, lift weights, jog, change diapers and weenie out, sucks to slow down  

That's it? Desk job to boot. 

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think they just come back in one season? It took a few years to clean them out. It make take a few years to build the population. Although I think they released a fungus to help kill them.

It won’t be a huge outbreak but they’ll be around. It takes a couple dry years . We are in midst of first year now 

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Your PV

 

Cool loop!  :thumbsup:

Keep in mind... that's the "stratosphere" ...  

The issue is the PV in the troposphere - that's what counts for terrestrial experience/interests - 

I am having difficulty finding direct evidence that the -AO has really been driven by the stratospheric --> downward exertion... In other words, are/were they truly coupled?   This -AO is residually predating that apparent SSW event in the first week of this month.  SO, if there is a couple tropospheric response, it is not likely to have happened yet anyway, because the total model has a ~ yet still coherent three week lag correlation to tropospheric mode transition to negative wrt to the AO.    

I mean...not that you are refuting any of this .. heh..  Just sayn'

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Desk job now due to pandemic....we try to restrict contact with elderly veterans. Considering how many people don't have a job, you can make fun of me for that all you want, bud lol Just happy to be feeding my wife, daughter and unborn son.

I hope Jan 2011 and Feb 94 walks through your door, but don't wait up-

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1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Is there some index which measures the global strength of gradients, in whatever units or terms make sense to accommodate that idea? Or is that just basically AAM already?

Great question!

Short answer?  I don't know... 

Somewhat longer answer, I have not been able to find any source that calculates that metric - but I think it is worthwhile; and some grad students with ambition and access/wherewithal should really do so and earn themselves a dissertation.  Because, the airline industry has been setting ground -based trans-oceanic speed records now regularly for the past 20 ... and more so, 10 years.  Plus, pattern and teleconnector inference headaches..  you name it.. Understanding the wind increase and how that feeds back into the R-wave modulation/global atmospheric mechanics of the general circulation isn't just pissing off snow zealots in social media, it clearly has a practical use in the fuel industry and the general risk assessment arenas to name a couple... 

 

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6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

can you even ride snow machines around your area? Or is it bare ass ground? 

Nope, We got 0.5" last night, I may have 2" in spots that's it, I'm heading up to Eustis tomorrow morning, Leaving at 7 am for a day of riding, They have been grooming there but its not what it should be for a pack this time of year up there either.

19CB4F71-064F-4EB0-9BE6-638A519D5890.jpeg

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31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What about the pole being more prone to higher heights due to faster rate of warming?

Yeeeeah ...that I believe is a threshold question ? 

It deals with starting at -40 C ( ...picking a deep value for the point of discussion ...), and having to move that needles +20 C, before the poles stop exerting as much push back against the warming middle and lower latitudes.   In the interim ... lots of gradient regimes.

There's some wiggle room there... And because the polar starts at such a low point, moving vast amounts is a physical availability issue/budgeting based upon mass.

That area up there is small relative to the whole areas outside of it integrating the warmer world.   These outre regions warm ... 3C ... that inputs a lot of mass into a smaller domain space, such that the said smaller space may move it's needly by multiples of that same input to atone for the thermal potential.  

Think of it this way:  an equal mass of ice mixed with an equal mass of liquid water, will mix to some temperature.   But, take the same mass of liquid water, and mix it with two ice cubes. The end result is colder.  In this case, we're talking about 1 ice cube and an order of magnitude more mass storing its therms to share into the ice cube...so the ice cube is going to move more.  

At some point though, the ice disappears, and it's rate of change slows.   It is at this point the the whole atmosphere attains a new paradigm - one that may feature 200 m of oceanic depth increase because Antarctica is officially entering glacial rebound/geology ...  Not in our life-times ...but we're being tongue-in-cheek a little here.

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Forgive me for the broad brush with regards to my recollection of the sensible weather within the nearly past four decades. I don’t have the encyclopedic knowledge of specific events like some here do. However, I was born in ‘81 so much of the horrible 80’s winters I was too young to realize it sucked. The 90’s I remember plenty of arctic cold and snow pack, with a few mild intrusions, whether that’s a figment of nostalgia, I’m not sure. The 00’s I remember as decent as well and ‘10’s were epic of course. But man, these last three winters have been so FN brutal down here. Mother Nature just finding any way possible to not snow. I should have savored those amazing seasons much more, they truly were anomalies, special times. 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Desk job now due to pandemic....we try to restrict contact with elderly veterans. Considering how many people don't have a job, you can make fun of me for that all you want, bud lol Just happy to be feeding my wife, daughter and unborn son.

I hope Jan 2011 and Feb 94 walks through your door, but don't wait up-

Wonder who started making fun of who today, just sayin bud.....

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