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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a hypothesis ... why these are taking place. 

These are narrow opportunistic times spans, inside of which .. the gradient richening of the total circulation is enhancing patterns that can deliver cold, earlier and later.. But, during the winter proper months, said gradient gets so extreme that we end up with a lot more destructive vs constructive interference maelstroms ... This is blunting events from happening during those meatier winter hemispheres.   As the atmosphere's passing back out of the that regime ...it passes back through a normal gradient as the wave lengths are shortening, and that offers a narrow window of cold insert ( May ...) but this is opposite passing the other direction in Autumns.  

I think the autumn and late cold snaps ,... are probably related to the same forcing, as it is heading in opposite directions.  

Is there some index which measures the global strength of gradients, in whatever units or terms make sense to accommodate that idea? Or is that just basically AAM already?

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?"

Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). 

Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3.

We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.

I agree on the regression piece...no argument on that.

I just think there is something to the increasing geopotential medium providing more deconstructive interference during boreal winter, than the transition seasons....I also agree that this impacts ENSO climo...we just don't know how much.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree on the regression piece...no argument on that.

I just think there is something to the increasing geopotential medium providing more deconstructive interference during boreal winter, than the transition seasons....I also agree that this impacts ENSO climo...we just don't know how much.

I realize that this conflicts with the increased frequency of huge events due to more water vapor. Just not sure how it all works together...maybe more frequent protracted "streaks" spanning successive" winters?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

But do we know how much of the gradient is due to CC versus there crazy +AO and +NAO states? We have had a lot of those seasons. I don't dispute the Hadley Cell argument, but there is a + correlation to SE ridging and +AO/NAOs.

3 of the seasons since 2016 have been La Ninas too which favor SE ridge anyway.

 

Though I will point out how convenient it was for the first half of this January the Hadley cell high gradient was nowhere to be found when we needed it. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But do we know how much of the gradient is due to CC versus there crazy +AO and +NAO states? We have had a lot of those seasons. I don't dispute the Hadley Cell argument, but there is a + correlation to SE ridging and +AO/NAOs.

Yes....RNA/la nina, this season...but same logic applies.

I'm not claiming to have the answers....just raising the DISCO.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

3 of the seasons since 2016 have been La Ninas too which favor SE ridge anyway.

 

Though I will point out how convenient it was for the first half of this January the Hadley cell high gradient was nowhere to be found when we needed it. :lol:

No kidding lol.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes....RNA, this season...but same logic applies.

I just wonder if the +AO/NAO regimes overpower any background CC signal. These smaller time scale type regimes will usually mask any CC signal. Or, perhaps enhance it too. It's just difficult to quantify.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?"

Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). 

Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3.

We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.

I also think that you can escape the increased flow in stretches like Jan-Feb 2015, when the cross polar flow is so immense that is displaces everything waaaaay to the south. Nothing is absolute, of course.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has disappeared today...you know when that guy drifts quietly away and blends into the backdrop of doggie dumplings, the weather ain't lookn' so hot-

Lol some have a life and aren't sitting behind a work computer with tears streaming down their face, like a school child whose peanut butter sandwich fell on the floor.

  • Haha 4
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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol some have a life and aren't sitting behind a work computer with tears streaming down their face, like a school child whose peanut butter sandwich fell on the floor.

LOL Some function a work, lift weights, jog, change diapers and weenie out, sucks to slow down  

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Plus ...keep in mind, all this consternation could be true, and there's still the random 2015 - ... 

These are not absolute limitations... it's like everything in nature, however - we deal in a reality governed by probabilities.   It's just that when a given system gets f'ed around with, it changes the machinery of said system, and it producing differently.   

GW ( leaving the "A" out of it ;) ) ... changes the machinery of the atmospheric system. 

So...you know, suppose probability says that 60% of the time you will see a certain flavor of outcome, means one happens to be more likely to see said outcome at any given point along the way...  blah blah...  

The thing is, as of 2007, the Special C Report flagged the expansion of the HC ...based upon the 1980 -2000 data ... 

That was 13 years ago, concerning a time span that years prior to that ...   

Do we think that's gone the other way with age ?  - hello       As of that report, the expansion was estimated to be 3 to 6 degrees of latitude.   And we have 'hockey -sticked' the climate since.  I don't know...but, integrating a 10 deg latitude expansion through a boreal winter ...that's probably enough to atone for fast winds.   

Here's the other thing...Those fast winds, I think... are causing polar indexes to register more positive, because it speeds up the flow - that mimics a stronger PV in general.  Talk about the 'teleconnector interpolations' changing - yeah. 

Yet, all of this stuff needs a decade or two to get proven, and if all this were not enough...it seems these systems are also changing now faster than humans can spin out said proofs and actually have the consensus except them.    Hell, we still call it "The General Theory of Relativity" ... when there is no empirical data that supports it being anything less than Law. And it's been 100 years

 

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also think that you can escape the increased flow in stretches like Jan-Feb 2015, when the cross polar flow is so immense that is displaces everything waaaaay to the south. Nothing is absolute, of course.

ah, you beat me to it - I just posited the same sort of gist ...  

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plus ...keep in mind, all this consternation could be true, and there's still the random 2015 - ... 

These are not absolute limitations... it's like everything in nature, however - we deal in a reality governed by probabilities.   It's just that when a given system gets f'ed around with, it changes the machinery of said system, and it producing differently.   

GW ( leaving the "A" out of it ;) ) ... changes the machinery of the atmospheric system. 

So...you know, suppose probability says that 60% of the time you will see a certain flavor of outcome, means one happens to be more likely to see said outcome at any given point along the way...  blah blah...  

The thing is, as of 2007, the Special C Report flagged the expansion of the HC ...based upon the 1980 -2000 data ... 

That was 13 years ago, concerning a time span that years prior to that ...   

Do we think that's gone the other way with age ?  - hello       As of that report, the expansion was estimated to be 3 to 6 degrees of latitude.   And we have 'hockey -sticked' the climate since.  I don't know...but, integrating a 10 deg latitude expansion through a boreal winter ...that's probably enough to atone for fast winds.   

Here's the other thing...Those fast winds, I think... are causing polar indexes to register more positive, because it speeds up the flow - that mimics a stronger PV in general.  Talk about the 'teleconnector interpolations' changing - yeah. 

Yet, all of this stuff needs a decade or two to get proven, and if all this were not enough...it seems these systems are also changing now faster than humans can spin out said proofs and actually have the consensus except them.    Hell, we still call it "The General Theory of Relativity" ... when there is no empirical data that supports it being anything less than Law.

 

What about the pole being more prone to higher heights due to faster rate of warming?

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When do you think gypsies will hatch? Maybe April . Perfect winter for them going into spring 

I don’t think they just come back in one season? It took a few years to clean them out. It make take a few years to build the population. Although I think they released a fungus to help kill them.

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