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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Ugh, killin me smalls...

Try to rush wintah slugs go, touchy-touchy
It’s bleedin' lovely, with its spirit above me
Or beneath me, this wintah ain’t sneaky
Now it rests eternally sleepy, it burns when it creeps me
Rest the season where the worms and the weak be. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Try to rush wintah slugs go, touchy-touchy
It’s bleedin' lovely, with its spirit above me
Or beneath me, this wintah ain’t sneaky
Now it rests eternally sleepy, it burns when it creeps me
Rest the season where the worms and the weak be. 

Rest your neck, where rev's wee weenie be

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is that random piece of vorticity that rotates around the Maritimes blocking vortex that reaches into New England and knocks down the trough that was entering the Mid-Atlantic States by hour 138.  We need that piece to be delayed or sped upwards in timing so it has very little impact on our system.

Our system..you mean Bermuda's. 

The trend is not your friend09dc7fd1-a727-4cba-98b5-911d8e96a25e.thumb.gif.2f27bd9cf4ad3064fb58ef20f19e3863.gif

 

 

 

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While the ocean storm passes way to the southeast on all guidance at this moment, I guess I can be satisfied with one of the best ocean effect snow event parameters in place I have ever seen personally on models four to six days out!  EURO, GFS both show an extremely long period of NNE to NE winds between ten and thirty knots with delta ts over 20C.  This should provide a strong band of heavy snow on the Cape.  GFS showed this strong signal on the 6z run, only to lose it the next 12z run.  However, the winds and temps stayed the same!  This is a highly volatile pattern and I would rather have the intense benchmark tracking nor'easter with a widespread three feet.  However, if the OES is the best out of this situation I will still be happy!

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Steined all summer .. he goes away all autumn and decides to return and set up shop all winter.  Planting and inserting his drought weenie into every snow loving New Englander

Look, I know that if the you crunch the stats, there isn't really a signal...I don't care. October snow makes me sick to my stomach....logically speaking, its unwarranted, but I'll be damned if it hasn't been correct more often than not. I understand Oct 2002, 2000, blah, blah....yiipee, boing, yatzi

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look, I know that if the you crunch the stats, there isn't really a signal...I don't care. October snow makes me sick to my stomach....logically speaking, its unwarranted, but I'll be damned if it hasn't been correct more often than not. I understand Oct 2002, 1995, blah, blah....yiipee, boing, yatzi

I agree with you overall . I tried to look past it, but I certainly worried about this past October. I think even the most steadfast of it doesn’t matter folks worried to some degree

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree with you overall . I tried to look past it, but I certainly worried about this past October. I think even the most steadfast of it doesn’t matter folks worried to some degree

I didn't worry. There's no evidence to support it matters. The October snow myth is like a gambling junkie convincing himself that because the roulette table went 4 reds in a row, the 5th has to be a red too. It's based on recency bias....people are scarred from 2011 and 2009, but don't look at 2002 or 2000.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't worry. There's no evidence to support it matters. The October snow myth is like a gambling junkie convincing himself that because the roulette table went 4 reds in a row, the 5th has to be a red too. It's based on recency bias....people are scarred from 2011 and 2009, but don't look at 2002 or 2000.

You ever stop to wonder that maybe it has to do with the changing climate, somehow? Like the increased frequency of large snowfalls...

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You ever stop to wonder that maybe it has to do with the changing climate, somehow? Like the increased frequency of large snowfalls...

Sure, but two problems:

1. It's a sample of like 4-5 occurrences between 2000 and 2020. 

2. What part of climate change would make October snowfall more likely to produce a poor winter?

 

I'm open to the concept, but I haven't seen a good evidence-based argument yet. Until I do, I'm not going to adopt it as a logical theory.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just fall back to, "how does a lucky s/w in October have a say on the hemispheric pattern for an entire season?" It doesn't. 

Yeah this is part of my "evidence-based argument" that I have seen lacking. I've seen a few theories like "when we get a cold pattern in October, we often see regime shifts every 4-6 weeks which line up for a poor early winter"....well, some of these patterns weren't even that cold, more like cold shots in an otherwise normal/mild October (both 2020 and 2011 qualify).

But even if that wasn't the case, 2020 just blew that argument to pieces with a good December pattern for snow including our largest region-wide snowstorm since 2018 or maybe even 2015.

But you can test the regime change theory anyway....it would say that cold Octobers should correlate significantly to shitty winters. But they don't.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sure, but two problems:

1. It's a sample of like 4-5 occurrences between 2000 and 2020. 

2. What part of climate change would make October snowfall more likely to produce a poor winter?

 

I'm open to the concept, but I haven't seen a good evidence-based argument yet. Until I do, I'm not going to adopt it as a logical theory.

I'm not asking you to adopt anything....I'm just speculating. I understand the small sample size. I'm not sure what would cause it. I do know that Oct has a slight negative correlation to winter NAO, which is not applicable this season. But I just wonder if having a very anomalous winter pattern that early in the season primes the atmosphere to underachieve in during the winter. It does seem like the ends of the season are more favorable, and the middle of winter less favorable since climate change... maybe something due to HC, expasnion...IDK. Just tossing shit against the wall.

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look, I know that if the you crunch the stats, there isn't really a signal...I don't care. October snow makes me sick to my stomach....logically speaking, its unwarranted, but I'll be damned if it hasn't been correct more often than not. I understand Oct 2002, 1995, blah, blah....yiipee, boing, yatzi

I have a hypothesis ... why these are taking place.  Firsty, I don't believe the demonstrative recurrence of either autumn or spring substantive cold over eastern N/A is mere dicey ...I think it is rooted in large scaled changes to the climate.   

These are narrow opportunistic times spans, inside of which .. the gradient richening of the total circulation is enhancing patterns that can deliver cold, earlier and later.. But, during the winter proper months, said gradient gets so extreme that we end up with a lot more destructive vs constructive interference maelstroms ... This is blunting events from happening during those meatier winter hemispheres.   As the atmosphere's passing back out of the that regime ...it passes back through a normal gradient as the wave lengths are shortening, and that offers a narrow window of cold insert ( May ...) but this is opposite passing the other direction in Autumns.  

I think the autumn and late cold snaps ,... are probably related to the same forcing, as it is heading in opposite directions.  

But that by virtue means that yes... October may not portend winter, but knowing why ... a fast ambient atmosphere/destruction of wave harmonics in lieu of conserving torque at very large R-wave structures - is just not something the hemisphere is going to achieve as a base-line state in October or November ... Or as proficiently going in the other direction...  In a sense, you could flip this argument around and suggest that a shitty f'um late January somehow implies a "great" April - heh...if you like 40/38 drizzle with a synoptic glopper... 

Personally, I'd rather not burn fossil fuels and get back to Currier&Ives Januariers  lol

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not asking you to adopt anything....I'm just speculating. I understand the small sample size. I'm not sure what would cause it. I do know that Oct has a slight negative correlation to winter NAO, which is not applicable this season. But I just wonder if having a very anomalous winter pattern that early in the season primes the atmosphere to underachieve in during the winter. It does seem like the ends of the season are more favorable, and the middle of winter less favorable since climate change. maybe something due to HC, expasnion...IDK. Just tossing shit against the wall.

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?"

Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). 

Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3.

We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a hypothesis ... why these are taking place. 

These are narrow opportunistic times spans, inside of which .. the gradient richening of the total circulation is enhancing patterns that can deliver cold, earlier and later.. But, during the winter proper months, said gradient gets so extreme that we end up with a lot more destructive vs constructive interference maelstroms ... This is blunting events from happening during those meatier winter hemispheres.   As the atmosphere's passing back out of the that regime ...it passes back through a normal gradient as the wave lengths are shortening, and that offers a narrow window of cold insert ( May ...) but this is opposite passing the other direction in Autumns.  

I think the autumn and late cold snaps ,... are probably related to the same forcing, as it is heading in opposite directions.  

Thank you. I wanted to say something about the wavelengths to Will, but abandoned the attempt because I was at a loss for the exact conceptualization.

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