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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's hard to remove one's humanity from this involvement - if we were as unmoved, and un-emotively guided as computers, there would have been no posts in the past 10 days due to overwhelming logical influence of low probability of returns in this overall set up. 

We've been pining and posting truth-evasive spin ...while troughs through California transit en route to Arizona...have downwind stretched ridging ... in the means, extending from the front range of the Rockies' longitudes, with some 10 or 12 isohypses rising over the bulge... 

and what?  did we actually think there was hope in getting a S/W amplitude in the east ??    

this is commiseration - not trolling ... but, all the erstwhile the PNA has technically been positive at CPC ( oh, btw - )   yikes.  What happens (then) when next week it plumbs to some -2.5 SD nadir, at the same time....  the NAO relaxes ( thank heaven for that much ..).  A rising NAO that in fact goes to +1 at GEFs-CPC, with a 7 to 10 day neggie PNA ...usually lifts the westerlies, and since the exertion comes from the S in the expansion shit's always exerting, that's a constructive interference for warmth I'm afraid. 

So, the problem I have is that it smacks to me as a huge warm up ...just like when I see a chance of a big storm way out there, the other way ... Sort of synergistically inferred, where the models merely have yet to depict it - I almost sense similarly, that when the NAO decays and the PNA is still passing through that nadir ... we could see the model start doing a February 2018 ridge ...  I've been toying with that the past several days - haven't said anything because I'm sure such an insight will garners a captive audience in this social media'sphere  LOL  

 

Totally agree if the NAO goes bye, bye....which I honestly hope for, regardless.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's hard to remove one's humanity from this involvement - if we were as unmoved, and un-emotively guided as computers, there would have been no posts in the past 10 days due to overwhelming logical influence of low probability of returns in this overall set up. 

Harsh, but true

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

I can do 70s to 80F next month for a time. Then sign me up for March 2018. 

I still think the block will go in Feb.....hope for it to redevelop in March, sure.....but Feb should be warm, overall. Like you, I'm fine with that....warm, SWFE....anything over this purgatory....and that is exactly what it is.

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21 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I can do 70s to 80F next month for a time. Then sign me up for March 2018. 

That's sort of what I'm thinking, in principle   :)    ...I mean, only the bat-shit crazed fantasies of an obsessive 22 year-old woman's crush would ever 'count' on 70s and 80s occurring twice in the same decade, in February - 

( although this GW ..and we are on a metaphoric 'hockey stick' change ) 

But the gist of it.  A warm up ...perhaps a lagged 'thaw' not atypical to mid winter lore is viable ... But in this day and age, yeah...good luck guessing how limited the extent of that is.  The thing is, the 2018 warm spell happened after February 10 and although that is not taken very seriously, it matters.  You need to have the solar input ... The sun is feebler prior to the ~ date, and it makes  huge difference passing that 'electromagnetic fluxing event horizon'...   

I remember that Dec 2006 and 1999, ...we had 70 F in SE ridge dominant pattern(s)... with 850 mbs to +12 or even 15C !!               70 F      ... On Feb 15, on the warm side of said virtual boundary? that's 80 - ...I mean, provided other circumstances with cloud and saturation are not skewing heating potential...etc..etc.. 

But I could see a warm up ... but the problem with the deep field notion of March 2018 walking through the door...  I don't think this is the same hemisphere frankly so that end of it ... well, I don't typically engage in seasonal outlooks.  Because I'm not good at it.. lol - but, I would surmise that an (HC + La Nina base-state )/2  ... probably doesn't = cold spring ?

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28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

NYC weenies should be encouraged by the 12z GFS.   @MJO812

The NAM was pretty scary though at 84 if you’re in SNE or especially NYC.  It’s flat as a pancake but basically on its own at this stage.  The NAM almost always has a south bias though beyond 48 with any sort of event that resembles a SWFE.  It’s been that way since it’s inception or switch over from the ETA 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's sort of what I'm thinking, in principle   :)    ...I mean, only a bat-shit crazed fantasies of an obsessive 22 year-olds woman's crush would ever 'count' on 70s and 80s occuring twice in the same decade, in February - 

( although this GW ..and we are on a metaphoric 'hockey stick' change ) 

But the gist of it.  A warm up ...perhaps a lagged 'thaw' not atypical to mid winter lore ... but in this day and age, yeah...good guess as to how limited the extent of that is.  The thing is, the 2018 warm spell happened after February 10 and although that is not taken very seriously, it matters.  You need to have the solar input ... The sun is feebler prior to the ~ date, and it makes  huge difference passing that 'electromagnetic fluxing event horizon'...   

I remember that Dec 2006 and 1999, ...we had 70 F in SE ridge dominant pattern(s)... with 850 mbs to +12 or even 15C !!               70 F      ... On Feb 15, on the warm side of said virtual boundary? that's 80 - ...I mean, provided other circumstances with cloud and saturation are not skewing heating potential...etc..etc.. 

But I could see a warm up ... but the problem with the deep field notion of March 2018 walking through the door...  I don't think this is the same hemisphere frankly so that end of it ... well, I don't typically engage in seasonal outlooks.  Because I'm not good at it.. lol - but, I would surmise that an (HC + La Nina base-state )/2  ... probably doesn't = cold spring ?

Yup....same page, again. I think it will be a warm spring, and although blocking may reappear again in March, you aren't getting that 2018 result in a mod la nina peak season IMO....not to mention a W QBO.

That happened in 2018 because it was a weak la nina and easterly QBO.

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

One decent EURO run would lift spirits immensely...string a few decent runs in...and we'd be rocking and forget all about this period.   

I would settle for some runs that bring 1/29 close to the south coast, at this range,  but they all hit Hateras and go ene.

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

One decent EURO run would lift spirits immensely...string a few decent runs in...and we'd be rocking and forget all about this period.   

The pattern moving forward is pretty good. Yea there are some features we have to fight off but it can be done. Just have to break the damn open and we can string together some good events. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would settle for some runs that bring 1/29 close to the south coast, at this range,  but they all hit Hateras and go ene.

 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know peoples don’t want to hear how close we are until they are sticking their weenie into the snow...but a break here or there and they will. 

 

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Also, that first week of February is pretty interesting to me still. You have more of an east based -NAO and some ridging out west. 2/1 looks kind of cutter-ish, but after that one looks more favorable....2/1 is still pretty close to the west-based blocking breaking down though, so it could end up flatter too.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The one that we all thought 4-8” and you got 2” and I had 1”

Oh that was Jan 3rd and 4th....you kept saying New Years Day.

4-8" wasn't forecasted ever in that one though. We were hoping it might turn into that type of storm a couple days out, but it never got better.

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You know what this period reminds me of, not synoptically speaking, but emotional feeling and somewhat storm positioning is the last week of Jan 16 after Jonas and before FEB 08, 2016 struck the region.  Remember how intense that system was and how large the circulation was that it got snow into the I95 corridor and points west when the center was 100 miles plus southeast of the benchmark?  I got like a foot of snow!

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