Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I dunno. I’m picturing a radar looking like that NYD debacle. Models spit out 3-6” and most ended up 1-2” . I envision a fractured , shredded radar .

I think it will have the more shredded look the further NE you go....hopefully about a mile NE of ORH to Holliston- N Weymouth line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I def want to keep the NAO negative this February....it's likely total garbage without it. I'll take my chances rolling the dice with it....shortening wavelengths might even help phase part of a PV lobe or something.

I agree, but I'm ready for garbage...at least that's something....I mean, I'd sign for 4 SW events at 3" a pop for Feb and March, and call it a month.

24" more on the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, but I'm ready for garbage...at least that's something....I mean, I'd sign for 4 SW events at 3" a pop for Feb and March, and call it a month.

24" more on the season.

Ha, if a garbage pattern would produce 4 SWFEs....that's an important assumption.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, but I'm ready for garbage...at least that's something....I mean, I'd sign for 4 SW events at 3" a pop for Feb and March, and call it a month.

24" more on the season.

Realistically speaking, I feel like we will probably get that, plus a decent pure snow event...maybe like a another 30"+ to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will have the more shredded look the further NE you go....hopefully about a mile NE of ORH to Holliston- N Weymouth line.

Will jacks in almost every event. Doesn’t matter if he’s in ORH or Holliston . Doesn’t matter if it’s snow or an icestorm. It’s uncanny how it happens.

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is why I'd sign for it. PV lobe phasing in during neggy NAO of mod nina 2nd half isn't a shabby assumption, either lol

Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern.

How much good is it doing of slowing down the Pac conveyor belt of energy in a -8SD RNA?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm sorry, neg NAO or not, monster phasers are hard to come by in mod/strong la nina.....sure they can happen, but the frequency is lower and it probably will not occur in the right spot. I took my chances all first half, and it hasn't really worked....I'm ready to gamble on high placement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sorry, neg NAO or not, monster phasers are hard to come by in mod/strong la nina.....sure they can happen, but the frequency is lower and it probably will not occur in the right spot.

Sure, nobody argued they weren't?

But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sorry, neg NAO or not, monster phasers are hard to come by in mod/strong la nina.....sure they can happen, but the frequency is lower and it probably will not occur in the right spot. I took my chances all first half, and it hasn't really worked....I'm ready to gamble on high placement.

I'm ready to gamble on basically any other pattern other than one-eyed pigs.  That said, maybe nature is just warming up her lungs for the big kahuna in our near future?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Sure, nobody argued they weren't?

But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina.

Normally, I agree....and I'm sure the wealth of data that monopolizes the vast majority of space on your laptop downstairs would corroborate this, but at what point do you pull the goalie, dude? This NAO configuration blows, and climo is getting worse......I'm ready to onside kick/pull the goalie. You would like to keep lubing up for the PV, and that's fine. I'm ready to see other people....maybe give the ugly SWFE cousin a try....she isn't as hot, but has a good heart and personality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kidding aside ... 

-- teleconnector inference as an 'art,' and even to some extent a practicum .. have both become 'usefully blurred.'  I don't know if anyone's noticed this - I have.. I've opined at times over the last couple of years - but one could more successfully 'flavor' their mid and extended range patterns accordingly, years ago ..more like decades, and their visions turn out charmed.  It's getting harder to be reliant.  A 1980 spread of indices ...does not seem to connote the same scenarios as they do in present era/years. 

I am not sure if the speed of the hemisphere's base-line velocity increasing has anything to do with it. But there is a seasonal lagged expansion of the HC ..intruding deeper into colder months and higher latitudes of the winter hemispheric states ( or, maybe it's just angels hating this social media's eclectic snow zealotry fan-base - lol..)  But there has to be a reason why it snows in October and May so aberrantly compared to the 300 years of crunched climate numbers prior to the year 2000.  Oh, we know it has snowed in October and May ... but that's also myopic.  The point is increasing frequency ( as a metric indicator for change), combined with, not just 'may' or 'october'...  Springs and autumns being apropos.   

It's only been five times in ten years, in a medium that's what, ... 500,000,000 years of geological consideration -  So taken fwiw, those five years we've suffered dearthy midriff winters while introducing this book-ending futility phenomenon. 

Keep in mind, there is no northerly 'edge' to the HC.   Ha, just like 'climate change' - it's invisible, so it has no direct advocate that appeals to the corporeal senses, and to 90% of human life...that of course means it can't exist ..  <_<  It's an amorphous...virtually seamless transition terminating its cellular circulation eddy, rendering to the polar trade wind zones in a non-fixed latitude, no less, to really complex the hell out of the discussion... But it is all morphed(ing) and exerting - imho.  A -2 NAO in 1980, even west based and similarly positioned blocking mass in space and time, probably should not imply the same over the eastern seaboard of the CONUS...due to morphologies in R-wave modulation, and the fact that tele's tend to break down and transition to new phase states faster in this modern era, too.

The problem with phasing is because there is too much wind velocity ...because in the means, this is disrupting the critical x-coordinate wave motion with respect to the y-coordinate wave motion, when the S /streams are in the process of bi-passing the N /stream impulses. It really is wave harmonics vs inharmonic interaction/proficiency therein.  And since the HC expansion started getting scienced by NASA and private think-tanks and f'ing math ... this velocity shit has arrived precisely in tandem.  I dunno... quacks like a duck, we be f'ck'ed for standardized previous century models.  I mean we'll get clocked eventually .. my guess ? it'll have some "air" of oddity in/of 'how in the hell did that happen'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...