RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What you thinking for NE CT? D-1” seems possible I guess Higher Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Time to cover up the doggie doo? Yea, take pics of it now to savor, while he still can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I def want to keep the NAO negative this February....it's likely total garbage without it. I'll take my chances rolling the dice with it....shortening wavelengths might even help phase part of a PV lobe or something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can't wait for Cantore to be on the Outer Banks next week. The imagery of this on Cape Hatteras would add more gasoline to some of the biggest weenie meltdowns to date: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can do better than that...I'm pretty optimistic for like you and Steve points sw. I dunno. I’m picturing a radar looking like that NYD debacle. Models spit out 3-6” and most ended up 1-2” . I envision a fractured , shredded radar . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I dunno. I’m picturing a radar looking like that NYD debacle. Models spit out 3-6” and most ended up 1-2” . I envision a fractured , shredded radar . That’s certainly possible but I also think there could be some mid level enhancement s of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Maybe we can get a big storm during the 1st week of February when the PNA will be rising along with a rise in the NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I dunno. I’m picturing a radar looking like that NYD debacle. Models spit out 3-6” and most ended up 1-2” . I envision a fractured , shredded radar . I think it will have the more shredded look the further NE you go....hopefully about a mile NE of ORH to Holliston- N Weymouth line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I def want to keep the NAO negative this February....it's likely total garbage without it. I'll take my chances rolling the dice with it....shortening wavelengths might even help phase part of a PV lobe or something. I agree, but I'm ready for garbage...at least that's something....I mean, I'd sign for 4 SW events at 3" a pop for Feb and March, and call it a month. 24" more on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree, but I'm ready for garbage...at least that's something....I mean, I'd sign for 4 SW events at 3" a pop for Feb and March, and call it a month. 24" more on the season. Ha, if a garbage pattern would produce 4 SWFEs....that's an important assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree, but I'm ready for garbage...at least that's something....I mean, I'd sign for 4 SW events at 3" a pop for Feb and March, and call it a month. 24" more on the season. Realistically speaking, I feel like we will probably get that, plus a decent pure snow event...maybe like a another 30"+ to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ha, if a garbage pattern would produce 4 SWFEs....that's an important assumption. That is why I'd sign for it. PV lobe phasing in during neggy NAO of mod nina 2nd half isn't a shabby assumption, either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it will have the more shredded look the further NE you go....hopefully about a mile NE of ORH to Holliston- N Weymouth line. Will jacks in almost every event. Doesn’t matter if he’s in ORH or Holliston . Doesn’t matter if it’s snow or an icestorm. It’s uncanny how it happens. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Higher Bob. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that looks like my call...we'll see. It'll be 46/44 every day until May 1 in order to aggregate the warmest 60 days in history ...relative to climate - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 One of the few times I'm happy to live south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can't wait for Cantore to be on the Outer Banks next week. The Outer Banks might have a storm similar to Jan. 22-23 2003. Blizzard conditions and 10”-15” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, TheCloser24 said: The Outer Banks might have a storm similar to Jan. 22-23 2003. Blizzard conditions and 10”-15” of snow. Boing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Funny...the reason why I didn't skunk the lower mid atlantic in the forecast this season is because I anticipated an event like Jan 2000 in Jan or Feb...just more attributed to PNA spike, than NAO block. Shot and a score... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 This is like 99-00 with an NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is like 99-00 with an NAO. This is hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: This is hell. AKA....yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is why I'd sign for it. PV lobe phasing in during neggy NAO of mod nina 2nd half isn't a shabby assumption, either lol Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern. How much good is it doing of slowing down the Pac conveyor belt of energy in a -8SD RNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm sorry, neg NAO or not, monster phasers are hard to come by in mod/strong la nina.....sure they can happen, but the frequency is lower and it probably will not occur in the right spot. I took my chances all first half, and it hasn't really worked....I'm ready to gamble on high placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sorry, neg NAO or not, monster phasers are hard to come by in mod/strong la nina.....sure they can happen, but the frequency is lower and it probably will not occur in the right spot. Sure, nobody argued they weren't? But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sorry, neg NAO or not, monster phasers are hard to come by in mod/strong la nina.....sure they can happen, but the frequency is lower and it probably will not occur in the right spot. I took my chances all first half, and it hasn't really worked....I'm ready to gamble on high placement. I'm ready to gamble on basically any other pattern other than one-eyed pigs. That said, maybe nature is just warming up her lungs for the big kahuna in our near future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Sure, nobody argued they weren't? But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina. Normally, I agree....and I'm sure the wealth of data that monopolizes the vast majority of space on your laptop downstairs would corroborate this, but at what point do you pull the goalie, dude? This NAO configuration blows, and climo is getting worse......I'm ready to onside kick/pull the goalie. You would like to keep lubing up for the PV, and that's fine. I'm ready to see other people....maybe give the ugly SWFE cousin a try....she isn't as hot, but has a good heart and personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 You'd think that with this pattern would yield one nice event. Almost ideal block placement and strong Alaskan ridge. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Kidding aside ... -- teleconnector inference as an 'art,' and even to some extent a practicum .. have both become 'usefully blurred.' I don't know if anyone's noticed this - I have.. I've opined at times over the last couple of years - but one could more successfully 'flavor' their mid and extended range patterns accordingly, years ago ..more like decades, and their visions turn out charmed. It's getting harder to be reliant. A 1980 spread of indices ...does not seem to connote the same scenarios as they do in present era/years. I am not sure if the speed of the hemisphere's base-line velocity increasing has anything to do with it. But there is a seasonal lagged expansion of the HC ..intruding deeper into colder months and higher latitudes of the winter hemispheric states ( or, maybe it's just angels hating this social media's eclectic snow zealotry fan-base - lol..) But there has to be a reason why it snows in October and May so aberrantly compared to the 300 years of crunched climate numbers prior to the year 2000. Oh, we know it has snowed in October and May ... but that's also myopic. The point is increasing frequency ( as a metric indicator for change), combined with, not just 'may' or 'october'... Springs and autumns being apropos. It's only been five times in ten years, in a medium that's what, ... 500,000,000 years of geological consideration - So taken fwiw, those five years we've suffered dearthy midriff winters while introducing this book-ending futility phenomenon. Keep in mind, there is no northerly 'edge' to the HC. Ha, just like 'climate change' - it's invisible, so it has no direct advocate that appeals to the corporeal senses, and to 90% of human life...that of course means it can't exist .. It's an amorphous...virtually seamless transition terminating its cellular circulation eddy, rendering to the polar trade wind zones in a non-fixed latitude, no less, to really complex the hell out of the discussion... But it is all morphed(ing) and exerting - imho. A -2 NAO in 1980, even west based and similarly positioned blocking mass in space and time, probably should not imply the same over the eastern seaboard of the CONUS...due to morphologies in R-wave modulation, and the fact that tele's tend to break down and transition to new phase states faster in this modern era, too. The problem with phasing is because there is too much wind velocity ...because in the means, this is disrupting the critical x-coordinate wave motion with respect to the y-coordinate wave motion, when the S /streams are in the process of bi-passing the N /stream impulses. It really is wave harmonics vs inharmonic interaction/proficiency therein. And since the HC expansion started getting scienced by NASA and private think-tanks and f'ing math ... this velocity shit has arrived precisely in tandem. I dunno... quacks like a duck, we be f'ck'ed for standardized previous century models. I mean we'll get clocked eventually .. my guess ? it'll have some "air" of oddity in/of 'how in the hell did that happen' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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