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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro went back north again. Can only see out to 90h though but clearly north of 12z through that time. Hopefully EPS bumps north too. 

Will, the orientation of the surface high over the central US and Canada could lead to a trend northwest with the Day 7 system down the road.  It is not in the notorious north of the low track position that keeps it shunted out to sea, but instead over central US and Canada and bananas over towards Quebec.  It isn't centered over Maine.  Also the GFS is leaning towards a potential trend northwest in the latest run as the low is captured by the closed H5 low and tracks northward once out to sea.  Just need it captured closer.  I mean that low is a bomb, do not want to waste a system like that in the winter with a high to the north.

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5 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

i've been running all seasons for over 20 years with no issues. 

it's not the equipment, it's the humans.

Not always. There are some better all seasons, however some that are labeled that way are totally useless in the snow. See it all the time in the valley on the sports cars. But yeah, the lack of driving skill is alarming also

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16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Will, the orientation of the surface high over the central US and Canada could lead to a trend northwest with the Day 7 system down the road.  It is not in the notorious north of the low track position that keeps it shunted out to sea, but instead over central US and Canada and bananas over towards Quebec.  It isn't centered over Maine.  Also the GFS is leaning towards a potential trend northwest in the latest run as the low is captured by the closed H5 low and tracks northward once out to sea.  Just need it captured closer.  I mean that low is a bomb, do not want to waste a system like that in the winter with a high to the north.

Surface Highs have about as much to do with the track of surface low pressure as Awakening Dawn does with the Pulitzer Prize.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Surface Highs have about as much to do with the track of surface low pressure as Awakening Dawn does with the Pulitzer Prize.

That wasn't what I was saying Ray, I have been on this forum long enough to realize that, and tracking weather since 2004, as a sophomore in High School, I know better.  I just meant, that whatever pattern at H5 owning to the more west and northwest positioning of the surface high means a chance for a short term trend to the northwest with our day 7 system!

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20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Not always. There are some better all seasons, however some that are labeled that way are totally useless in the snow. See it all the time in the valley on the sports cars. But yeah, the lack of driving skill is alarming also

I run on Michelin Defenders all seasons. Great tire. Haven’t really tested them in the snow yet. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been so strange this winter with all the heavy snow west of New England. Typically we see the heavier snow axis into SNE on north with less as you get into NY state / PA. This year the heaviest amounts have been out there and Peter out as they head east 

Its bc of the meat grinder block. 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That wasn't what I was saying Ray, I have been on this forum long enough to realize that, and tracking weather since 2004, as a sophomore in High School, I know better.  I just meant, that whatever pattern at H5 owning to the more west and northwest positioning of the surface high means a chance for a short term trend to the northwest with our day 7 system!

I know....just a joke. I'm actually going to order a copy. You should be proud of seeing something like that through.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know there’s sentiments here that + PNA and - NAO is great here, but I’ll disagree. We do best with -AO and +PNA with neutral or slightly positive NAO. It’s iron clad over historical review 

I think we can do ok with a slightly neg west based NAO, East base is no good for here, And i would rather have a +PNA and a neutral to slight neg west based NAO, Of course i have more to battle with with cold highs to the north to with confluence.

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53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been so strange this winter with all the heavy snow west of New England. Typically we see the heavier snow axis into SNE on north with less as you get into NY state / PA. This year the heaviest amounts have been out there and Peter out as they head east 

Waaaaaay west. Most of us in Upstate New York haven't gotten squat...unless you live on the Chautauqua Ridge, Tug Hill, or Binghamton.

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