RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, still enough time that we might see a slight relaxation in the press to let it come N a bit. I know what @dryslot means though, at my location I'd rather flirt with a cutter than a shunt. A Dec17 like north shift with the mid level goodies would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z euro went back north again. Can only see out to 90h though but clearly north of 12z through that time. Hopefully EPS bumps north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro went back north again. Can only see out to 90h though but clearly north of 12z through that time. Hopefully EPS bumps north too. Will, the orientation of the surface high over the central US and Canada could lead to a trend northwest with the Day 7 system down the road. It is not in the notorious north of the low track position that keeps it shunted out to sea, but instead over central US and Canada and bananas over towards Quebec. It isn't centered over Maine. Also the GFS is leaning towards a potential trend northwest in the latest run as the low is captured by the closed H5 low and tracks northward once out to sea. Just need it captured closer. I mean that low is a bomb, do not want to waste a system like that in the winter with a high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 hours ago, SJonesWX said: i've been running all seasons for over 20 years with no issues. it's not the equipment, it's the humans. Not always. There are some better all seasons, however some that are labeled that way are totally useless in the snow. See it all the time in the valley on the sports cars. But yeah, the lack of driving skill is alarming also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro went back north again. Can only see out to 90h though but clearly north of 12z through that time. Hopefully EPS bumps north too. I thought 12z was strange when everything else came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will, the orientation of the surface high over the central US and Canada could lead to a trend northwest with the Day 7 system down the road. It is not in the notorious north of the low track position that keeps it shunted out to sea, but instead over central US and Canada and bananas over towards Quebec. It isn't centered over Maine. Also the GFS is leaning towards a potential trend northwest in the latest run as the low is captured by the closed H5 low and tracks northward once out to sea. Just need it captured closer. I mean that low is a bomb, do not want to waste a system like that in the winter with a high to the north. Surface Highs have about as much to do with the track of surface low pressure as Awakening Dawn does with the Pulitzer Prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought 12z was strange when everything else came north. It was a good sign when the 12z EPS didn’t go south after the OP did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was a good sign when the 12z EPS didn’t go south after the OP did. That 8H into the lakes at 12Z indicated to me that this was coming further North. Now we need the Scooter shit streak to pull out to ease shrederolla 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro went back north again. Can only see out to 90h though but clearly north of 12z through that time. Hopefully EPS bumps north too. Good snow up into NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 It’s been so strange this winter with all the heavy snow west of New England. Typically we see the heavier snow axis into SNE on north with less as you get into NY state / PA. This year the heaviest amounts have been out there and Peter out as they head east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surface Highs have about as much to do with the track of surface low pressure as Awakening Dawn does with the Pulitzer Prize. That wasn't what I was saying Ray, I have been on this forum long enough to realize that, and tracking weather since 2004, as a sophomore in High School, I know better. I just meant, that whatever pattern at H5 owning to the more west and northwest positioning of the surface high means a chance for a short term trend to the northwest with our day 7 system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Not always. There are some better all seasons, however some that are labeled that way are totally useless in the snow. See it all the time in the valley on the sports cars. But yeah, the lack of driving skill is alarming also I run on Michelin Defenders all seasons. Great tire. Haven’t really tested them in the snow yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been so strange this winter with all the heavy snow west of New England. Typically we see the heavier snow axis into SNE on north with less as you get into NY state / PA. This year the heaviest amounts have been out there and Peter out as they head east Its bc of the meat grinder block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That wasn't what I was saying Ray, I have been on this forum long enough to realize that, and tracking weather since 2004, as a sophomore in High School, I know better. I just meant, that whatever pattern at H5 owning to the more west and northwest positioning of the surface high means a chance for a short term trend to the northwest with our day 7 system! I know....just a joke. I'm actually going to order a copy. You should be proud of seeing something like that through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know....just a joke. I'm actually going to order a copy. You should be proud of seeing something like that through. Oh thanks Ray. Nah I was just saying that is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z EPS north of 12z. Still would like to see the primary get basically into CLE. Right now it’s getting almost to PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh thanks Ray. Nah I was just saying that is why. I think the odds of 1/29 nailing us are really fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its bc of the meat grinder block. Which is why IMO neggy NAO hurt us more than help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Which is why IMO neggy NAO hurt us more than help No arguments from me on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Which is why IMO neggy NAO hurt us more than help Gimme blocking in Davis straits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: No arguments from me on this. I know there’s sentiments here that + PNA and - NAO is great here, but I’ll disagree. We do best with -AO and +PNA with neutral or slightly positive NAO. It’s iron clad over historical review Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know there’s sentiments here that + PNA and - NAO is great here, but I’ll disagree. We do best with -AO and +PNA with neutral or slightly positive NAO. It’s iron clad over historical review I think we can do ok with a slightly neg west based NAO, East base is no good for here, And i would rather have a +PNA and a neutral to slight neg west based NAO, Of course i have more to battle with with cold highs to the north to with confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Now if we can just orient those isobars in the same direction as that system to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been so strange this winter with all the heavy snow west of New England. Typically we see the heavier snow axis into SNE on north with less as you get into NY state / PA. This year the heaviest amounts have been out there and Peter out as they head east Waaaaaay west. Most of us in Upstate New York haven't gotten squat...unless you live on the Chautauqua Ridge, Tug Hill, or Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Which is why IMO neggy NAO hurt us more than help This season, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z EPS north of 12z. Still would like to see the primary get basically into CLE. Right now it’s getting almost to PIT. Not bad at all Will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Mean clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mean clown maps? Here ya go. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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