January 2021

[MJO812]

First half of January is over

 

The PV is taking a beaten right now.  Hopefully the 2nd half is better. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

First half of January is over

 

The PV is taking a beaten right now.  Hopefully the 2nd half is better. 

Dam...the next 18 days gone just like that.  Sad when you write off 3 weeks at a clip. 

[Cold Miser]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dam...the next 18 days gone just like that.  Sad when you write off 3 weeks at a clip. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Every model stinks in the long range

The point is that the pattern sucks despite a negative AO and NAO.

Its not unusual at all to see a fairly crappy pattern in December and sometimes in early Jan with the AO/NAO negative.  It becomes increasingly difficult on an exponential level for that to happen though once you progressive through January

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice signal on the GEF members for the Jan 7 -11 period.   Most members carry 'some'thing .. ranging from baroclinic wall to a deep phasing constructs and coastal cryo -

I think as soon as the CPC   ensemble system rights its self we'll get better confidence in a blocking motif out there into the first half of the month.  Recent CPC mean has parted company with the verification indicating it has been vastly too negative going back a week to 10 days with increasing error leading to the present time.  In fact, the mean initialized about a whole SD lower than the verification curve in last nights output - ugh... The warm rain on Xmas actually WAS  good fit for the AO/NAO ...but anyone CPC -reliant may have been nonplussed..

oops.

But, forgetting the indices, the individual GEF members look stormy and it's not a bad look for those needing this excitement. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

First half of January is over

 

The PV is taking a beaten right now.  Hopefully the 2nd half is better. 

LOL “patience” remember?

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL “patience” remember?

Not with the latest models

[Typhoon Tip]

God bless Pivotal for existing ...

But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives -

Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared -

green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11   lol... Probably the opposite

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

God bless Pivotal for existing ...

But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives -

Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared -

green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11   lol... Probably the opposite

Just no massive cutters please. Normal NNE pattern of upslope and FROPAs is fine. 

[78Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

God bless Pivotal for existing ...

But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives -

Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared -

green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11   lol... Probably the opposite

If Canada is going to have much warmer than normal temps over the next couple of weeks, we're finished.  Is there such a thing as a back door cold front in January, lol?

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just no massive cutters please. Normal NNE pattern of upslope and FROPAs is fine. 

it might almost be worse than that, in the operational 00z/12z blend of those two cycles ... yeesh.

I mean, cutters tend to have back side upslopeCAA tho..   cold advection instability squalls .. It's just maddening to the enthusiast that they have to scrape by on that in wait of the rollout and next warm intrusion. 

What the Euro is doing reminds me of December 2006 frankly - getting dated at 14 years ago... but that was the year that was in danger of going down as a like an unworldly statistical warm outlier freak winter.  I don't think I even saw a snow flurry prior to January 10 that year...  It was a weirdly Pacific dominated flow so violently extreme that +30 850 mb temperatures washed over the Canadian shield at times/in plumes and the places like Tower MN failed to registery a 32 F before Xmas... I remember as the satire publication, "The Onion" remarked about the dangerous perils of the punishing Great Lakes winter in defiant mockery over 52 F frostbite sarcasm - ... it was surreal.

I don't know... I'm spit ballin' there but the Onion did joke about that winter.. .and it was ongoing unprecedented badness ... Just there was no such thing as winter ... period... on this side of the hemisphere.  The AO that autumn, unlike recently ... was NOT in error, and it was putting up two towers to +6 SD!!!!   intermediated by a relaxation to +4 in between.   Every day was 47 to 62 range for highs until mid January...

Then, it all changed     yeah..the AO crashed actually in early January and plummeted some 7 SD from +6 to -1 or -2... At first the cold dumped over in Eurasion but the wave number rotated around 10 days later and NP popped the AB phase /-EPO and we started getting cold... I think we snowed at the end of the month and then February made up some ground. I remember almost being disappointed at that point ( almost ) ...because when we got to mid point and it was exotic, it felt like tarnishing a Monet' art work and I wanted the painting to finish that way... I mean christ, if could have only made another month of it - .. .But where the hell was I going .. oh yeah, the Euro and EPS' flow is uncanny similar to that mean look of that Dec 2006.  I don't know what or why they are - but I don't have any confidence in them necessarily for now either.

[CoastalWx]

Full blown +PUK oscillation on the EPS. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

If Canada is going to have much warmer than normal temps over the next couple of weeks, we're finished.  Is there such a thing as a back door cold front in January, lol?

You need to look at what temps +2 is in Canada in Jan

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/will-real-nao-please-stand-up.html

 Will the Real NAO Please Stand Up

January 2021 Positions to Deliver the Blow That Latter December 2020 Did Not

Generalizations: The Cardinal Sin of Sociology and Meteorology

One of the most fundamental traits inherent of all human beings is that we love to be appreciated for all of our unique and innate abilities. Indeed, to generalize any individual as part of an indistinguishable larger group is to gloss over the qualities and abilities that define us as human beings, and provide us with our own sense of identity. Suffice to say, generalizations make it exceedingly difficult if not impossible to adequately characterize any human being, or anything else for that matter. We  must treat the atmosphere the same way. Generalizations breed contempt, indifference, laziness and complacency. A generalization is an antonym of exhaustive, which is a term that should describe any forecaster worth reading. This is because in forecasting it is the aforementioned, minute idiosyncrasies that often differentiate between a mundane rainstorm and a paralyzing blizzard. Thus a forecasting approach fraught with generalizations can blind any prospective forecaster to the atmospheric nuances that are responsible for such tremendous variation in resultant sensible weather. This is the essence of why these generalizations are so inimical to making friends. Not only are those around you insulted, but they are ill prepared for the weather due to a shitty and tremendously flawed forecast that did not accurately and exhaustively assess all of the data at hand. This is a principle that Eastern Mass Weather warned against prior to the severe la nina winter of 2017-2018, as well as prior to the current season. The consensus was very mild in both instances due to a generalization of the respective la nina events, which is silly because one was east based and one mixed type. Central-based events are usually most mild and benign across the eastern US. Many of us are guilty of committing the same cardinal sin with respect to the characterization of teleconnections, and namely the NAO.

 

Much like ENSO Events, Location Crucial for Blocks

The month of December was not quite as active in terms of winter weather across the area as implied, in large part because the large Christmas event this past week was entirely rainfall across the region. The easy first guess would be because the NAO was not predominately negative, as expected, but this is not true.

 

A more exhaustive review of the data reveals why.

Latter December has been characterized by a "thumb ridge" of higher heights across the north atlantic to the south of Greenland, as opposed to a true block over Greenland.

 

Although technically registering as a negative NAO due to higher heights in the southern periphery of the NAO domain, this is not a block because it does nothing to "block" a storm from cutting inland. This was evidenced by the inland track of the Christmas low, and this same regime looks to plague the next event.

 

New Year's Storm Potential

Note that as a deep trough carves out in the center of the county later this week, we have yet to establish the block over Greenland.

 

While the initial instinct if to forecast a repeat of the Christmas storm, remember that it is important to consider each and every subtle nuance to the pattern.

 

Note that a subtle RNA signature briefly emerges:

 

 

 

Which is evidenced by the lower heights in the Pacific North West:

 

 

 

 

The lower heights in the PNW act to mute the amplification of the downstream trough due to the development of higher heights in the SE US.

 

This creates a delicate balance between how much the SW can retain its integrity, which will promote a more inland track, and how much it is attenuated by the fast flow of a compressed geopotential medium due to the fleeting SE ridge. The latter promotes a more seaward track and albeit a weaker system, a possible colder solution.

 

 

 

Whatever happens later this week, the plot then thickens by the second week of January.

Major Potential Looms Toward Mid January Due to Stratospheric Evolution

Currently, the stratosphere remains fairly weak, which creates the opportunity for cold to escape into the mid latitudes. However, that does not necessarily mean that it will escape into north America. In fact, currently the vast majority of the cold is focused in Asia.

Remember not to generalize all weakening PV episodes.

 

 

 

However there is now growing confidence that the balance of cold will begin to shift toward North America as we enter the new year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This sets the stage for what currently looks to be a classic pattern for a major east coast snow storm during the second week of January.

 

While a true Sudden Stratospheric Warming is unlikely for reasons specified in the winter outlook, there does exist strong multi cluster support among ensemble guidance for such a a pattern to materialize.

GFS Ensemble agree with the aforementioned ECMWF mean:

 

Canadien Ensemble also concurs:

 

 

 

 

 

Should this fail to materialize, then there will not be a major east coast winter storm. While it may be overstated to a degree, which is often the case with respect to extended ensemble projections, there was some support for west-based NAO blocking during the first half of January in the analog composite.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Said blocking should begin to abate in latter January, potentially setting the stage for a significant late winter reprieve.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You need to look at what temps +2 is in Canada in Jan

Yea, plenty cold enough for us.

[alex]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Just no massive cutters please. Normal NNE pattern of upslope and FROPAs is fine. 

How about a few week of moist NNW flow? 

[alex]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Full blown +PUK oscillation on the EPS. 

Is that "Definite Puke" status? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Full blown +PUK oscillation on the EPS. 

Puke usually works at peak climo....at least at this latirude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, alex said:

Is that "Definite Puke" status? 

He just means that there is no true arctic air due to Pac jet.

[MJO812]

H5 looks interesting on the gfs for the storm after NYE .

 

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He just means that there is no true arctic air due to Pac jet.

It’s not due to the pacific jet.  The main PV is on the wrong side of the NHEM in the longer range.   Ironically the jet buckles as it enters NOAM as we start to get the semblance of PNA on the long range EPS but for the time being cold is limited.  However limited doesn’t mean we can’t snow-we can as you know.  But to get a really favorable pattern we need the PV on our side but not sitting on our face.

[Torch Tiger]

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He just means that there is no true arctic air due to Pac jet.

I mean it’s pretty bad even for peak Climo. Looked cutter prone. Some improvements at the end. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

It’s not due to the pacific jet.  The main PV is on the wrong side of the NHEM in the longer range.   Ironically the jet buckles as it enters NOAM as we start to get the semblance of PNA on the long range EPS but for the time being cold is limited.  However limited doesn’t mean we can’t snow-we can as you know.  But to get a really favorable pattern we need the PV on our side but not sitting on our face.

I don't agree in the longer rage...things shift over to our side. Initially, yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it’s pretty bad even for peak Climo. Looked cutter prone. Some improvements at the end. 

I don't think January week 2 is cutter prone...marginal cold, sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

You don't need to prove that the first week of January is mild. No one is debating that.

[78Blizzard]

Natural gas futures are down over 9% tonight.  Looking ahead, that's as good a tell as any of the models' indications.  Of course, they probably looked at the models and sold, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Grasshoppers...

 

[MJO812]

Wow the west will be a winter wonderland with the roaring jet

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow the west will be a winter wonderland with the roaring jet

That's the sort of atmospheric river we need.