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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, with a break or two we would have made out okay with respect to snowfall....there are worse patterns. I mean, its not 60 degrees with a death star over AK and Greenland.

Yep, we've had plenty of similar patterns that produce...I'm talking longwave patterns. Obviously the synoptics haven't worked out.

But nobody cares unless it's snowing, lol. It's like trying to convince people in northern CT or interior MA that January 2006 was a putrid pattern....2 feet of snowfall, lol.

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Never mind, the 12z EURO is just like the 12z GFS with the Day 7-8 (Jan 28-29th) threat as well.  A monster sub 980mb low that gets shoved out to sea because that PV lobe just sits over Southern Canada and the Northern USA border and shreds everything or shunts everything south of our region.  Good luck getting a KU with no PNA ridging, and no ridging over the Maritimes ahead of the trough!

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I'm not sure regression automagically dooms storm chances ...or entertaining value to model guidance .. or whatever's one's purpose for being here though. 

Why does that necessarily mean that ?   

..and don't say something of razor sharp cutting insight like, 'look around you...'    - that's myopic.  No, this pattern just sucks asshole - 

that's it.  Nothing less, probably something more. But it's sucking asshole manifests as other reasons ...fast flow is killing wave harmonics = 'negative interference' = no entertainment ... and that's it.  You can have a retrograde tendency and skulpt out history and parades.  This is just endemic to now,and won't do that.  

Regression isn't a bitch - the circumstance at hand, is.  I don't know, does it lend to comfort to nail down a silver bullet to blame ?  Nah...the pathway to salvation is admitting the suckness and then keeping eye on the future.   

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38 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Agreed. Part of the problem are "all season" tires that might as well be a racing slick. It amazes me how many drive on totally inappropriate tires in winter in New England. That and just terrible driving skills (cell phone)

i've been running all seasons for over 20 years with no issues. 

it's not the equipment, it's the humans.

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Cold the past couple of days.. nice to see some snow falling today,  we all likely to regress to cheering for 1-3" from now on, unlike a couple of years ago where we all expected 12"+ lol

Not all of us.

I'm content with moving on haha...whatever happens.....happens.

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Big issue with 1/29 on most recent iterations is that the main reason why I, along with some others, felt as though this threat offered a beacon of hope is because of a burgeoning Rockies ridge. However, today's 12z EURO now has that ridge over the great plains....this needs to change, and fast, or kiss that one good bye, too. The crucial kicker disturbance that I referenced in my blog now looks more like a trough.

I would wait on the EPS for that.

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