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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can't be because its hit comical levels now.

i got lucky in the 12/16 storm, with just over 20". take that out of the season totals, and I would be sitting at 14". i had more snow in Jan '12, Jan '16, and Jan '20 than I have had this Jan

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now in addition to the Hadley Cell devouring mankind, the -NAO is the mid latitude snowfall antichrist.

John loves to latch onto a kernel of truth and just beat you over the head with it until you promise to agree. 'Cmon, dude.....I'll go to war with a neg NAO every time from SNE points south. This winter is merely an illustration of the fact that it is overhyped, like the SSW and everything else, and no meteorological phenomenon operates in a vacuum.

"Kernel of truth"  - haha -  okay         dude

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4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i got lucky in the 12/16 storm, with just over 20". take that out of the season totals, and I would be sitting at 14". i had more snow in Jan '12, Jan '16, and Jan '20 than I have had this Jan

Yea, you guys that got into that band had the season saved. That was everyone's shot at a big one this season, and some of us missed out.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If blocking ends up further north we may be able to sneak a few in if it returns, Where we are right now, I have very little confidence we see anything, Storms that try to move NNE are getting shredded and shunted south, Other then maybe some clipper snows with a weak northern stream starved low, I don't see much happening.

Yea, I am really letting go of much hope this week. Looks like more of the same crap...at least I've moved beyond the frustration stage. Hopefully if we lose the blocking in February and March, we can steal a few SWFEs, or something.

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two responses leap to mind ... if interesting - 

1 ... no one should have been in a state of 'good vibes' if/when said vibes are aroused by yesterday's guidance images. They should have been wise, thus stone-faced and unmoved.  It's venturing off into a separate arena of discussion why they do .. But keeping things to point: nothing changed going into yesterday and coming out ... The hemisphere is still in a circumstance that is highly unpredictable, relative to any range beyond 120 hours.  Take the normal performance of any guidance, and jam a rack of M80s down their circuitry - that's what they are worth.  Even the most advanced guidance tools available can't do it - I said this 33.4 times in the last week, when the blocking nodes are inconsistently placed on the map every other guidance cycle, or guidance type, at the same time pervades hyper fast progressive flow along and S of 40 N, that is just beyond the state-of-the-art of the technology.  Think of it this way: blocking usually comes along with enhanced error; at the other end, progression comes along with enhanced error in its own right.  Now  add those two together, divide by 2 =   ...ever heard the saying, 'two wrongs don't make a right'  ?   There is an emergent aspect though, that kills the rest - and that has to do with the fact that at all scales, the hemisphere is in a destructive mayhem.  Nothing is positively enhancing anything else, because of these ongoing super structures.  So... it's just the realistic rub of this era, of this winter, is that not only is model uncertainty a bounty of riches right now, whatever remains of that uncertainty is not supported to bounce or 'get lucky' in a positive direction, either.  The 00z Euro hit my eyes this morning...no reaction except, yup -

2 ... personally I am not a huge fan of -NAO's and there is plenty of evidence and empirical data, both anecdotal and hard ..., that evinces it as over-assess and frankly, a fallacy of importance in enhancing winter storms in a favorable way .  Not saying its zero...but, it is in fact the Pacific that actually controls whether the NAO does its things - it does so via "non-linearity" of wave dispersion mechanics...blah blah... folks just have to realize that the flat high speed -PNA sends robust ridge into 90 W, but then the flow relaxes in the Atlantic, and that causes latent heat to flux/dump off into the NAO domain...block ..with a PV pinned over Ontario... That whole integration is a west--> east forcing and is a manifestation of that transitive relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic. It's non-linear, because wave A ( Pacific...) creates wave C ( NAO ) ... while wave B ( in between...) may or may not even seem to perturb as the energy of A passes through its domain.  That's really what's always been happening - in principle. 

   Having said all that... the forces and the NAO/ blocking up there is not really the culprit.  We were getting boned before the NAO emerged.  In fact, setting the records straight, the -NAO is really only three or so days into its (finally!) realization on the charts.  We are four weeks and counting, passing through three patterns now, ...no results.  Neither of those patterns were really conducive since the Dec event.  

Yeah we do not want or need - NAO in NE. They do more harm than good and unfortunately we have one the next 4 years 

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21 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i got lucky in the 12/16 storm, with just over 20". take that out of the season totals, and I would be sitting at 14". i had more snow in Jan '12, Jan '16, and Jan '20 than I have had this Jan

I thought Manchester got 10.1" based on the Coop.




 

 
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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm being sarcastic, but all I mean is that I feel like you sometimes take salient points and embellish a bit...that's all.

Well of course I do ... Jesus - I'm a science fiction author.... 

No but I don't think in this case there's embellishment in that sense ?   I'm not after 'affectation' or gaslighting to incite a reaction or anything. 

As a sociologist ... obviously you know that compensating momentum has to be established in order to move a consensus, one that is by weight of historical convention and traditional points of views, all but immutable.  That takes a bit of a blunt approach - 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well of course I do ... Jesus - I'm a science fiction author.... 

No but I don't think in this case there's embellishment in that sense ?   I'm not after 'affectation' or gaslighting to incite a reaction or anything. 

As a sociologist ... obviously you know that compensating momentum has to be established in order to move a consensus, one that is by weight of historical convention and traditional points of views, all but immutable.  That takes a bit of a blunt approach - 

 

 

I would actually like to view some of your work.....how would I do about doing that?

I just disagree that the NAO is more harmful than it is helpful at this latitude....NNE, sure...no argument. But I still feel that in SNE, you want it more often than not. But a huge trough on the west coast can make a lot of otherwise favorable set ups look bad.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Skies gray here and NWS' brilliant move to boo-yoo 1974 P.O.S. Series 2021 radar "technology" shows light snow ( ...I guess that's what that is...) spreading in so, cheers -

Yeah...is there someone at the NWS that we can email to file a complaint with about the new radar technology?  It's awful.  How did that pass user testing?  Did someone's nephew win the contract to upgrade it?  It's beyond awful.  It's unusable.

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pac flow will improve as we head into Feb. 

Climo, and guidance suggests otherwise....lower heights developing around AK, as that trough retrogrades, as per climo, guidance and my outlook....small window around the turn of the month, when the PNA neutralizes, but that is hardly a "favorable Pacific".

Good luck, dude. Climo snowfall second half? Sure, maybe....I am saying a big second half is likely not in the cards.

 

EPO.png

PNA.png

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not saying a big second half but we could get a big system up the coast once the noa relaxes and the pac helps. Weeklies kinda hinted at it. 

If we get a big event, its probably going to be at the turn of the month...like I said, there is a window when the PNA neutralizes for a bit...it would have to be that 1/29 system, or the next one after it, I think.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Once that rises it will be cutter season. I don't see a happy medium. Just hope PAC just gets less + tilted.

Exactly. The NAO isn't the problem....its just that the way the PAC is aligned...pick your poison. You can either have events shred to shit and compress underneath us, like now....or you can have them track through the great lakes.

Personally? I'm ready to ditch the NAO if the PAC is going to remain aligned like that and just take my chances with snow to rain events.

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