SJonesWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: You can't be because its hit comical levels now. i got lucky in the 12/16 storm, with just over 20". take that out of the season totals, and I would be sitting at 14". i had more snow in Jan '12, Jan '16, and Jan '20 than I have had this Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Stuff entering the Berkshires looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Now in addition to the Hadley Cell devouring mankind, the -NAO is the mid latitude snowfall antichrist. John loves to latch onto a kernel of truth and just beat you over the head with it until you promise to agree. 'Cmon, dude.....I'll go to war with a neg NAO every time from SNE points south. This winter is merely an illustration of the fact that it is overhyped, like the SSW and everything else, and no meteorological phenomenon operates in a vacuum. "Kernel of truth" - haha - okay dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: "Kernel of truth" - haha - okay dude I'm being sarcastic, but all I mean is that I feel like you sometimes take salient points and embellish a bit...that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i got lucky in the 12/16 storm, with just over 20". take that out of the season totals, and I would be sitting at 14". i had more snow in Jan '12, Jan '16, and Jan '20 than I have had this Jan Yea, you guys that got into that band had the season saved. That was everyone's shot at a big one this season, and some of us missed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: If blocking ends up further north we may be able to sneak a few in if it returns, Where we are right now, I have very little confidence we see anything, Storms that try to move NNE are getting shredded and shunted south, Other then maybe some clipper snows with a weak northern stream starved low, I don't see much happening. Yea, I am really letting go of much hope this week. Looks like more of the same crap...at least I've moved beyond the frustration stage. Hopefully if we lose the blocking in February and March, we can steal a few SWFEs, or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: The semi rich get richer. Only semi rich in New England is VT and far N NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Two responses leap to mind ... if interesting - 1 ... no one should have been in a state of 'good vibes' if/when said vibes are aroused by yesterday's guidance images. They should have been wise, thus stone-faced and unmoved. It's venturing off into a separate arena of discussion why they do .. But keeping things to point: nothing changed going into yesterday and coming out ... The hemisphere is still in a circumstance that is highly unpredictable, relative to any range beyond 120 hours. Take the normal performance of any guidance, and jam a rack of M80s down their circuitry - that's what they are worth. Even the most advanced guidance tools available can't do it - I said this 33.4 times in the last week, when the blocking nodes are inconsistently placed on the map every other guidance cycle, or guidance type, at the same time pervades hyper fast progressive flow along and S of 40 N, that is just beyond the state-of-the-art of the technology. Think of it this way: blocking usually comes along with enhanced error; at the other end, progression comes along with enhanced error in its own right. Now add those two together, divide by 2 = ...ever heard the saying, 'two wrongs don't make a right' ? There is an emergent aspect though, that kills the rest - and that has to do with the fact that at all scales, the hemisphere is in a destructive mayhem. Nothing is positively enhancing anything else, because of these ongoing super structures. So... it's just the realistic rub of this era, of this winter, is that not only is model uncertainty a bounty of riches right now, whatever remains of that uncertainty is not supported to bounce or 'get lucky' in a positive direction, either. The 00z Euro hit my eyes this morning...no reaction except, yup - 2 ... personally I am not a huge fan of -NAO's and there is plenty of evidence and empirical data, both anecdotal and hard ..., that evinces it as over-assess and frankly, a fallacy of importance in enhancing winter storms in a favorable way . Not saying its zero...but, it is in fact the Pacific that actually controls whether the NAO does its things - it does so via "non-linearity" of wave dispersion mechanics...blah blah... folks just have to realize that the flat high speed -PNA sends robust ridge into 90 W, but then the flow relaxes in the Atlantic, and that causes latent heat to flux/dump off into the NAO domain...block ..with a PV pinned over Ontario... That whole integration is a west--> east forcing and is a manifestation of that transitive relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic. It's non-linear, because wave A ( Pacific...) creates wave C ( NAO ) ... while wave B ( in between...) may or may not even seem to perturb as the energy of A passes through its domain. That's really what's always been happening - in principle. Having said all that... the forces and the NAO/ blocking up there is not really the culprit. We were getting boned before the NAO emerged. In fact, setting the records straight, the -NAO is really only three or so days into its (finally!) realization on the charts. We are four weeks and counting, passing through three patterns now, ...no results. Neither of those patterns were really conducive since the Dec event. Yeah we do not want or need - NAO in NE. They do more harm than good and unfortunately we have one the next 4 years 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck in a moderate la nina during back half of winter. Good luck forecasting purely based on enso states. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only semi rich in New England is VT and far N NH Logan11over in NY and Pete in the berks have done ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i got lucky in the 12/16 storm, with just over 20". take that out of the season totals, and I would be sitting at 14". i had more snow in Jan '12, Jan '16, and Jan '20 than I have had this Jan I thought Manchester got 10.1" based on the Coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good luck forecasting purely based on enso states. Good luck forecasting based on the pathetic hope of phasing two streams in a violent pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Getting the nao to relax while pumping the pna could lead to a big event. I don’t care if it’s el nino or la nina or la nada or el ray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck forecasting based on the pathetic hope of phasing two streams in a violent pacific flow. Pac flow will improve as we head into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm being sarcastic, but all I mean is that I feel like you sometimes take salient points and embellish a bit...that's all. Well of course I do ... Jesus - I'm a science fiction author.... No but I don't think in this case there's embellishment in that sense ? I'm not after 'affectation' or gaslighting to incite a reaction or anything. As a sociologist ... obviously you know that compensating momentum has to be established in order to move a consensus, one that is by weight of historical convention and traditional points of views, all but immutable. That takes a bit of a blunt approach - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Skies gray here and NWS' brilliant move to boo-yoo 1974 P.O.S. Series 2021 radar "technology" shows light snow ( ...I guess that's what that is...) spreading in so, cheers - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well of course I do ... Jesus - I'm a science fiction author.... No but I don't think in this case there's embellishment in that sense ? I'm not after 'affectation' or gaslighting to incite a reaction or anything. As a sociologist ... obviously you know that compensating momentum has to be established in order to move a consensus, one that is by weight of historical convention and traditional points of views, all but immutable. That takes a bit of a blunt approach - I would actually like to view some of your work.....how would I do about doing that? I just disagree that the NAO is more harmful than it is helpful at this latitude....NNE, sure...no argument. But I still feel that in SNE, you want it more often than not. But a huge trough on the west coast can make a lot of otherwise favorable set ups look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 If we had a huge PNA ridge right now, no one in SNE would be complaining about the NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Skies gray here and NWS' brilliant move to boo-yoo 1974 P.O.S. Series 2021 radar "technology" shows light snow ( ...I guess that's what that is...) spreading in so, cheers - Yeah...is there someone at the NWS that we can email to file a complaint with about the new radar technology? It's awful. How did that pass user testing? Did someone's nephew win the contract to upgrade it? It's beyond awful. It's unusable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pac flow will improve as we head into Feb. Climo, and guidance suggests otherwise....lower heights developing around AK, as that trough retrogrades, as per climo, guidance and my outlook....small window around the turn of the month, when the PNA neutralizes, but that is hardly a "favorable Pacific". Good luck, dude. Climo snowfall second half? Sure, maybe....I am saying a big second half is likely not in the cards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Not saying a big second half but we could get a big system up the coast once the noa relaxes and the pac helps. Weeklies kinda hinted at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not saying a big second half but we could get a big system up the coast once the noa relaxes and the pac helps. Weeklies kinda hinted at it. Agree It always happens. Most likely next week when the NAO and AO rises. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not saying a big second half but we could get a big system up the coast once the noa relaxes and the pac helps. Weeklies kinda hinted at it. If we get a big event, its probably going to be at the turn of the month...like I said, there is a window when the PNA neutralizes for a bit...it would have to be that 1/29 system, or the next one after it, I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree It always happens. Most likely next week when the NAO and AO rises. Once that rises it will be cutter season. I don't see a happy medium. Just hope PAC just gets less + tilted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Long range EPS already shows cutter pattern at 360 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Long range EPS already shows cutter pattern at 360 Pac shuffle, but I thought it was shuffling to something a little more favorable. You aren't going to go weeks without avoiding them. That's just how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Wait, what have we been in then? I’m pretty sure we’ve had equal to or more cutters than snow thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree It always happens. Most likely next week when the NAO and AO rises. Not always...we can cut right after a phase change 1980s style but we’ll have a window for a good shot at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Once that rises it will be cutter season. I don't see a happy medium. Just hope PAC just gets less + tilted. Exactly. The NAO isn't the problem....its just that the way the PAC is aligned...pick your poison. You can either have events shred to shit and compress underneath us, like now....or you can have them track through the great lakes. Personally? I'm ready to ditch the NAO if the PAC is going to remain aligned like that and just take my chances with snow to rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Mjo looks decent as we head into February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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