dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I'm holding out until 1st week in Feb for snow, I expect nothing until the blocking relaxes up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, Supernovice said: Good thing he didn’t. Hey snowflake . How are you today ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Hey snowflake . How are you today ? You should just admit your forecasting blunder. Use it as a teaching moment. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You should just admit your forecasting blunder. Use it as a teaching moment. No blunder here. Killing it so far with mild dry winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm holding out until 1st week in Feb for snow, I expect nothing until the blocking relaxes up here. Archie event incoming when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 A great cold storm south of the RT 2 area with blowing and drifting. Really nailed Scooters area. Southern New England was hit with a second very cold snowstorm in three weeks on January 21 into January 22, 2014. Snow began around midday on Tuesday, January 21 with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. The heaviest snow late in the day and during the evening was on a west to east line from NW RI to the South Shore of Boston. The snow continued through the night into Wednesday morning before tapering from west to east in RI and interior SE MA. The temperature dropped to the single digits to low teens by early Wednesday morning. The snow lingered well into the afternoon on Cape Cod where near-blizzard conditions were experienced. Below are unofficial snowfall reports sent into the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Archie event incoming when it does. That's when they usually occur, I like the first week of Feb, Couple chances possibly, Better chance then the 26th and 29th of Jan i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Archie event incoming when it does. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: A great cold storm south of the RT 2 area with blowing and drifting. Really nailed Scooters area. Southern New England was hit with a second very cold snowstorm in three weeks on January 21 into January 22, 2014. Snow began around midday on Tuesday, January 21 with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. The heaviest snow late in the day and during the evening was on a west to east line from NW RI to the South Shore of Boston. The snow continued through the night into Wednesday morning before tapering from west to east in RI and interior SE MA. The temperature dropped to the single digits to low teens by early Wednesday morning. The snow lingered well into the afternoon on Cape Cod where near-blizzard conditions were experienced. Below are unofficial snowfall reports sent into the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA. 10" difference in about 10 miles as the crow flies. That was a deformation dandy with some OES, especially just to my SE. 40:1 fluff that made me realize how annoying fluff is 12 hrs after it falls and compacts in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 10" difference in about 10 miles as the crow flies. That was a deformation dandy with some OES, especially just to my SE. 40:1 fluff that made me realize how annoying fluff is 12 hrs after it falls and compacts in half. 20 to 1 stuff. The drifting was epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: So what went right during the 04/05 season..I remember there being a consistent Greenland block/-NAO from late Jan on. The PAC must have been more cooperative? Although, it did favor the coast still so maybe those further inland would curse that season Something happened for NNE (Maine at least) in early Feb. Prior to the big dump on 2/10-11 we'd not had even a 4" event here. Then the period Fe. 10-Mar. 12 brought 61". Tough winter. Here we are at/near climo's lowest temps of the season and some haven't seen even one storm over 6". Second half has got to be better than the first, right? Revised for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6z EPS looks good for an advisory event. Lots of members more than that. Still 4 to 5 days out. Hopefully the Scooter shit streak pulls out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Archie event incoming when it does. Good luck in a moderate la nina during back half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Epic show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not the version Raymond uses . The bigger concern was the EPS Euro actually does looks nice for you guys down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Epic show. I'm sure Archie would be a real hit in today's world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Sinking feeling the blocking persists and we south trend for two clean whiffs sending the board into oblivion. #winter20/21vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro actually does looks nice for you guys down there. The semi rich get richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: The semi rich get richer. I'm honestly not even mad at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm honestly not even mad at this point. You can't be because its hit comical levels now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You can't be because its hit comical levels now. They can keep the 4" of sand.....if it were 24", then I'd be melting away. This winter is crap...every SW that you get is being sheared to shit and staggers into the area, before wilting away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: They can keep the 4".....if it were 24", then I'd be melting away. I don't see any 24's in anybody's future anytime soon unless your including upslope in the areas that get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I don't see any 24's in anybody's future anytime soon. No, its over as far as that is concerned. Ship has sailed, JMHO....but maybe mod nina will rally during the back half of winter for the second time in the past century, you never know- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All those good vibes on models and north trends yesterday totally gone. -NAO are no good for New England . Cold and dry now into early Feb. What in the sam hell happened last night? Op euro with a dusting to the pike is the wettest . EPS went way south Two responses leap to mind ... if interesting - 1 ... no one should have been in a state of 'good vibes' if/when said vibes are aroused by yesterday's guidance images. They should have been wise, thus stone-faced and unmoved. It's venturing off into a separate arena of discussion why they do .. But keeping things to point: nothing changed going into yesterday and coming out ... The hemisphere is still in a circumstance that is highly unpredictable, relative to any range beyond 120 hours. Take the normal performance of any guidance, and jam a rack of M80s down their circuitry - that's what they are worth. Even the most advanced guidance tools available can't do it - I said this 33.4 times in the last week, when the blocking nodes are inconsistently placed on the map every other guidance cycle, or guidance type, at the same time pervades hyper fast progressive flow along and S of 40 N, that is just beyond the state-of-the-art of the technology. Think of it this way: blocking usually comes along with enhanced error; at the other end, progression comes along with enhanced error in its own right. Now add those two together, divide by 2 = ...ever heard the saying, 'two wrongs don't make a right' ? There is an emergent aspect though, that kills the rest - and that has to do with the fact that at all scales, the hemisphere is in a destructive mayhem. Nothing is positively enhancing anything else, because of these ongoing super structures. So... it's just the realistic rub of this era, of this winter, is that not only is model uncertainty a bounty of riches right now, whatever remains of that uncertainty is not supported to bounce or 'get lucky' in a positive direction, either. The 00z Euro hit my eyes this morning...no reaction except, yup - 2 ... personally I am not a huge fan of -NAO's and there is plenty of evidence and empirical data, both anecdotal and hard ..., that evinces it as over-assess and frankly, a fallacy of importance in enhancing winter storms in a favorable way . Not saying its zero...but, it is in fact the Pacific that actually controls whether the NAO does its things - it does so via "non-linearity" of wave dispersion mechanics...blah blah... folks just have to realize that the flat high speed -PNA sends robust ridge into 90 W, but then the flow relaxes in the Atlantic, and that causes latent heat to flux/dump off into the NAO domain...block ..with a PV pinned over Ontario... That whole integration is a west--> east forcing and is a manifestation of that transitive relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic. It's non-linear, because wave A ( Pacific...) creates wave C ( NAO ) ... while wave B ( in between...) may or may not even seem to perturb as the energy of A passes through its domain. That's really what's always been happening - in principle. Having said all that... the forces and the NAO/ blocking up there is not really the culprit. We were getting boned before the NAO emerged. In fact, setting the records straight, the -NAO is really only three or so days into its (finally!) realization on the charts. We are four weeks and counting, passing through three patterns now, ...no results. Neither of those patterns were really conducive since the Dec event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, its over as far as that is concerned. Ship has sailed, JMHO....but maybe mod nina will rally during the back half of winter for the second time in the past century, you never know- I look back this fall when analogs were being mentioned for this upcoming winter and it was about 50/50 of being decent or a dud, We may be heading into breaking that tie in a negative way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I'm holding out until 1st week in Feb for snow, I expect nothing until the blocking relaxes up here. I think we sneak something small-moderate prior to Feb 1, then we get something with the relax, but it seems blocking may reassert for February. As long as it doesn't overwhelm it could be a good stretch. Do we finally get a little Nina northern stream pattern with swfe and clippers for a series of moderate events before this winter is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Now in addition to the Hadley Cell devouring mankind, the -NAO is the mid latitude snowfall antichrist. John loves to latch onto a kernel of truth and just beat you over the head with it until you promise to agree. 'Cmon, dude.....I'll go to war with a neg NAO every time from SNE points south. This winter is merely an illustration of the fact that it is overhyped, like the SSW and everything else, and no meteorological phenomenon operates in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Fwiw Matt Noyes thinks 26th is mostly snow showers and his ten day is cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I think we sneak something small-moderate prior to Feb 1, then we get something with the relax, but it seems blocking may reassert for February. As long as it doesn't overwhelm it could be a good stretch. Do we finally get a little Nina northern stream pattern with swfe and clippers for a series of moderate events before this winter is over? If blocking ends up further north we may be able to sneak a few in if it returns, Where we are right now, I have very little confidence we see anything, Storms that try to move NNE are getting shredded and shunted south, Other then maybe some clipper snows with a weak northern stream starved low, I don't see much happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I know Twitter bad etc... However would an east based NAO in FEB be better for us? 2nd tweet. https://mobile.twitter.com/simonleewx?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fsimonleewx%2fstatus%2f1352241685514883073 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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