MJO812 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Para was also further north. Gfs is trash. Euro has also brought back the 29th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes...loosen that confluence just a touch more and I think you'd see the WCB slam right into SNE as it runs into the block....this run sort of shunts the WCB south of us as everything runs into a brick wall and we get mostly the currier and ives ML goodies that are weakening after a moderate WAA burst. This could become more consolidated as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This could become more consolidated as we get closer. i think this becomes a good storm for the Cape and Islands, perhaps our first real all snow threat since last year. Again, still too early to say with any sort of confidence. We need a consistent consensus to develop before I am jumping onto said solution. Learned my lesson with the lack of snow the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Para was also further north. Gfs is trash. Euro has also brought back the 29th storm Yea, brought it back to Hatteras lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, brought it back to Hatteras lol No matter how many times we remind him, he still thinks most of us are in the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, brought it back to Hatteras lol Its a start Huge storm offshore and hits SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No matter how many times we remind him, he still thinks most of us are in the mid-atlantic. No I'm just posting because the euro brought the storm back. Who the hell cares where it is hitting right now. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: No matter how many times we remind him, he still thinks most of us are in the mid-atlantic. I get what he means....storm is on the map at day 9...still funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: No I'm just posting because the euro brought the storm back. Who the hell cares where it is hitting right now. It was there last night too. It was just a lot weaker and up south of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Lol, "not gonna happen" might as well keep perpetuating that this storm will not happen, like Scott N said for the Blizzard of Jan 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Lol, "not gonna happen" might as well keep perpetuating that this storm will not happen, like Scott N said for the Blizzard of Jan 15. I could see a light event like the Euro....actually mod in SW NE....I think that is totally possible. I just doubt like widespread warning for all of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definitely good trends today....wouldn't take much to get that into warning amounts. Obviously being 5.5-6 days out along with that block means this can easily go back south too. But the Euro trend is good over the past 24 hours. Yesterday at 12z it took it to Bermuda. Then last night it moved it north about 250 mi, and today another 200 mi N. So we might still get another smaller move north at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Cool, let's keep the low off Wilmington DE so I get the 30" freak deform this go round instead of Dendy. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Another 10 days here-we take! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Cool, let's keep the low off Wilmington DE so I get the 30" freak deform this go round instead of Dendy. More like a 6" deform band in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS really likes 1/31. Pretty luke warm on 1/29. For 1/26 they are a touch south of the OP run, but keeping us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS really likes 1/31. Pretty luke warm on 1/29. For 1/26 they are a touch south of the OP run, but keeping us in the game. Still say 1/26 is a sell for me....but maybe not for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still say 1/26 is a sell for me....but maybe not for the whole region. Yeah you are probably in the least favorable spot in all of SNE for 1/26....further NE is bad in that setup. But trend it north another tick and it s a moot point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you are probably in the least favorable spot in all of SNE for 1/26....further NE is bad in that setup. But trend it north another tick and it s a moot point. You would think going in that this would be the kind of winter that I would be favored relative to the rest of the region, but it just hasn't worked out....yet. The meat of every event is either in SNE or NNE...been that way since I moved here, save for 12/4/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Ah... sorry, but it'd have to be an anomaly nested inside another anomaly to get either one of those two Euro depictions to transpire. Which, is compounding the odds against - it can happen though. And I'm not numb to the notion that other guidance are showing more interest. That does lend something of confidence.. That said, we are still stuck with greater than average uncertainty beyond D 4 .. 5 in any given guidance, to to the inherent limitations of fast flow under/30-50 N with inconsistently placed blocking above those latitudes every other cycle/model type... Those two aspect working together is beyond the state-of-the-art of the modeling ambit I'm afraid. I am also not numb to the crowd sensitivity in the matter, and that bruised backs don't need reminding of inherent limitations - I just figure/hope folks don't get carried away in those solutions. If we carry that look with several cycles ( more so than less...) and end up on 96 hours ...different ballgame perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Ah... sorry, but it'd have to be an anomaly nested inside another anomaly to get either one of those two Euro depictions to transpire. Which, is compounding the odds against - it can happen though. And I'm not numb to the notion that other guidance are showing more interest. That does lend something of confidence.. That said, we are still stuck with greater than average uncertainty beyond D 4 .. 5 in any given guidance, to to the inherent limitations of fast flow under/30-50 N with inconsistently placed blocking above those latitudes every other cycle/model type... Those two aspect working together is beyond the state-of-the-art of the modeling ambit I'm afraid. I am also not numb to the crowd sensitivity in the matter, and that bruised backs don't need reminding of inherent limitations - I just figure/hope folks don't get carried away in those solutions. If we carry that look with several cycles ( more so than less...) and end up on 96 hours ...different ballgame perhaps. I fully expect a tick back south next cycle....very low expectations here. I think someone like Luke should be optimistic, though, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 You can see how quickly the meteorological wheel of fortune can spin, though...envision grabbing a couple of inches on 1/26....couple more on 1/29.....than BANG on 1/31. Close it out with 15"........look back through history ten years from now and you wouldn't so much as bat an eyelash at this month, despite the 4-5 weeks of hell that we've all endured. You'd take a look at the 20"+ monthly tally that belies the hellish first 80% of it and think'..."decent month". "I'd take it". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: More like a 6" deform band in this one. I can work with that too. after a month of bare ground it'll feel like 30" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can see how quickly the meteorological wheel of fortune can spin, though...envision grabbing a couple of inches on 1/26....couple more on 1/29.....than BANG on 1/31. Close it out with 15"........look back through history ten years from now and you wouldn't so much as bat an eyelash at this month, despite the 4-5 weeks of hell that we've all endured. Nobody remembers the Jan 1969s or the 4 weeks of nothing after blizzard of '78 or the putrid stretch between the December 1992 storm and the next one in mid-Jan 1993.....those get forgotten easily when you cash in at some point. They only get remembered if the winter never recovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice LES event. Carol in the tug over 100 inches this year now Some big totals just SE of my location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I don't like the fact that those are riding over the top of a third trimester pregnancy in the deep south - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nobody remembers the Jan 1969s or the 4 weeks of nothing after blizzard of '78 or the putrid stretch between the December 1992 storm and the next one in mid-Jan 1993.....those get forgotten easily when you cash in at some point. They only get remembered if the winter never recovers. If 4 weeks ago we had on the ground what we did then, this forum would have looked a lot different this past month. Bare ground for an extended period can do that to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nobody remembers the Jan 1969s or the 4 weeks of nothing after blizzard of '78 or the putrid stretch between the December 1992 storm and the next one in mid-Jan 1993.....those get forgotten easily when you cash in at some point. They only get remembered if the winter never recovers. Nobody except us lol Problem that I have with that is that it will either need to happen quickly, or be quite an anomaly....as you pointed out, only one moderate la nina over the past 70+ years has rallied fiercely in the second half in this area. If this were an el nino, then I wouldn't sweat it. You can try to use Tip's Hadley Cell clause to wiggle off of the figurative hook that is this train of thought, but as you and I have discussed, theoretically, HC expansion should only serve to constructively interfere with the already normally unfavorable Feb la nina regime. Better pray to get lucky and have that next PV succeed at tempting that heffer of a sister to plant herself on a couch in Canada. If we end up with the anorexic twin again, its curtains, barring a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nobody remembers the Jan 1969s or the 4 weeks of nothing after blizzard of '78 or the putrid stretch between the December 1992 storm and the next one in mid-Jan 1993..... or the entire decade of the 1980s CD violation unrelenting ... those get forgotten easily when you cash in at some point. They only get remembered if the winter never recovers. right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't like the fact that those are riding over the top of a third trimester pregnancy in the deep south - I think that is aptly resolved in the medium range on the EURO...that is why it ends up a light event up here. Its shredded between the block, and 602DM heights over Biscayne Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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