40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some nice snows on the bridges of the Cape there. Should be a thread for that IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 RAP/HRRR are actually pretty nice looking later on for eastern areas....yes, I know some of you don't give a crap.....but for those who do, worth watching for some decent squalls. TTs near 60 are no joke. Obscene lapse rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of the pattern or state of any index, at the end of the day you need the shortwave dust to settle favorably, and it has not. This pattern has been flawed, but it very easily could have been a good stretch with one break or two. I don't think the NAO had anything to do with the fact that the southwest energy has always ejected at the most inopportune times, and the shortwave spacing has always been unfavorable. Everything out west is tilted. EPO ridge, and thus now the -PNA trough. All + tilted and folding over each other. That's never good. 6z EPS tried to change that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Snowing at Otis ANGB right now, visibility within 3 sm stay safe. hunker down in a hanger with the fighter pilots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RAP/HRRR are actually pretty nice looking later on for eastern areas....yes, I know some of you don't give a crap.....but for those who do, worth watching for some decent squalls. TTs near 60 are no joke. Obscene lapse rates. Yeah was looking at that. Someone will get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Everything out west is tilted. EPO ridge, and thus now the -PNA trough. All + tilted and folding over each other. That's never good. 6z EPS tried to change that. Yea, that just exacerbates the aforementioned issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RAP/HRRR are actually pretty nice looking later on for eastern areas....yes, I know some of you don't give a crap.....but for those who do, worth watching for some decent squalls. TTs near 60 are no joke. Obscene lapse rates. Start a thread for those who give a crap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 It goes both ways.....people over attribute successful regimes to the NAO, and assign too much culpability when things go awry. At the end of the day, the atmosphere is a fluid system and nothing is independent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You were a -NAO Worshipper, and As I said yesterday...be careful what you wish for. You won’t wish for a -NAO Ever again. It isn’t abd was never the holy grail. You need other things to go along with it...a marriage of sorts. We haven’t had those other things. Years of chasing a -NAO in the cruiser every night and after a couple weeks of failure he beats it down with the billy club. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Obs thread for snow showers today https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54401-snow-shower-obs-120/ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Obviously the inherent caveats with the extended lead, blah, blah, blah, but all three ensemble packages are pretty insistent that everything through the first week of February misses south....if that has wavered at all, then I missed it. I could't care any less about a NYC n edge, as opposed to Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the elevating heights in the vicinity of the rockies could make a diff. for 1/29..if that verifies. Its been consistent. well yeah... that's part in parcel -forcing by the Pacific pattern relay into N/A providing that, yup - bingo. Agreed. I'm just focused west personally ... I'm trying to figure out if: this is all La Nina driven ... or HC masquerading as La Nina by virtue of both having the ability to enhance easterly trades/pile warm water west of the Dateline... OR ( if that were not enough - ) some impossible to parse out quantities of either working in irregular tandemization - Here's the thing, the la Nina is not more than moderate in strength. Plus, the total flow characteristic is not very La Nina like over the Americas. I read the MJO publication weekly by CPC and I they keep saying the circulation identifies with the La Nina base-state. Do to the impossibility of parsing issue ( mentioned abv) I'm forced to agree - I mean there's no way to know what is caused in bulk weight for HC or Nina... Again, stressing the point that they mimic - and probably - constructively wave interfere with one another. But that base-line resembling of La Nina is not true over the Americas, either. So there's got to be other things systemically undefined here - In fact ...it's not a huge hypothetical leap to suggest that the oddities and idiosyncrasies that have been so distracting all along ... maybe it is something like a Nina being so super charge by the favorable HC ( and vice versa ) they've gone so as to "click" into the next gears up the transmission - so the waves end up aligning this way. It's sci-fi, hence the word "hypothesis" ..lol. But yeah. We also spent a lot of time in Novie through mid Dec complaining/opining/observing the apparent lack of Nina signature to the on-going maelstrom ... Then, as the cold season got thick, this has evolved... with this extraordinarily +WPO ...so violent that it's sending the inverted correlation state into the EPO ...by latent heat fluxing at an exceptionally long R-wave - causing heights to try and rise over the NE Pacific while the WPO remains positive. The warm water piling over the western Pac/ NINO 4 and west ...when the normal Asian/NW Pac Boreal heights fell during the autumn might have triggered this planetary jet response out around eastern China and Japan, so intense that it's lowered heights on the polarward side of that flow and pulled the PV off its kilter... That seems to be why the SSW emerged the more I'm looking at this. Not a standard model SSW ... ( and I like that too, because the QBO is technically anticorrelated in the westerly phase during the autumn leading the apparent SSW - doesn't lend to it truly being a top-down event, but one injected by unusual planetary wave dispersions - it did ...after all, manifest at the arc of the Pacific Basin ). But I'm not sure that matter really ... Whether the SSW is causing, or is caused, ...we're stuck with a weird western Pac jet anomaly,... failed NE Pac modeled height responses, and a whopper -AO that was already in place prior to the "SSW" - that's a red flag over what preceded and where the causality is located in my mind. I begin to suspect the La Nina works in tandem with HC is constructively causing this hemispheric emergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It goes both ways.....people over attribute successful regimes to the NAO, and assign too much culpability when things go awry. At the end of the day, the atmosphere is a fluid system and nothing is independent. Hence the marriage term..need things to work in concert...not just one single thing being the all encompassing factor. That’s what I was meaning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Some signs of a slightly more favorable pattern at the end of the month with the indices going the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see it perhaps impacting south of the pike, but I have a very hard time buying significant snowfall up my way from that. Like I said, I think she gone for siggy snow beyond s coast, LI and NYC, though. Yeah, I would feel better being pike south, It looks dry next 15 days up here, This is as bad as i have seen it in a long, Long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 This season is like the cold ENSO version of 1979-1980. That was my futility season....on paper, you would have never guessed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Raise your hand if you would have guessed that I had under 20" of snowfall this season.....sometimes shit just happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Start a thread for those who give a crap. Dick 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Dick Cranky old man. I'm not sure why that is such a ludicrous suggestion...."give a crap" was his word; not mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This season is like the cold ENSO version of 1979-1980. That was my futility season....on paper, you would have never guessed that. I was in 6thgrade that winter and remember it well. Nothing happened...it was a dud all the way through. Hope this year changes soon and doesn’t turn out like that one. But I fear it may :-(. It Doesn’t seem to want to change..it’s stubborn. But I guess we’ll see. Still a ways to go being 1/20 and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I was in 6thgrade that winter and remember it well. Nothing happened...it was a dud all the way through. Hope this year changes soon and doesn’t turn out like that one. But I fear it may :-(. It Doesn’t seem to want to change..it’s stubborn. But I guess we’ll see. Still a ways to go being 1/20 and all. We'll see......GFS seems pretty emphatic that the main vortex will settle in Canada after the second split, which is what took place in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raise your hand if you would have guessed that I had under 20" of snowfall this season.....sometimes shit just happens. I just explained why - ...and adding to it, notice in that very same image you've got very little if any Pacific help relaying any kind of constructive wave support - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just explained why - ...and adding to it, notice in that very same image you've got very little if any Pacific help relaying any kind of constructive wave support - You're smoking some potent shit if you would have guessed that is my worst winter on record. I suppose that you also would have guessed that the mid atl had above average snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raise your hand if you would have guessed that I had under 20" of snowfall this season.....sometimes shit just happens. Here's a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Here's a good one Which year is that? Couple issues I see are the east-based NAO and low SW heights. I can see why that would go awry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 And this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Times are tough when we resort to a game of "name that terd" at H5 in the main winter thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 You know its bad times when all i see when i come in here is reminiscing about past storms and the haves and have nots, Someone should start a nostalgia thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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