Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I had heated arguments about the NAO ...jesus, 12 years ago? holy hell - .. but those arguments were because posters would implicated -NAO = snow... wrong. Winter storm enthusiasts don't want a statically depressed NAO index... particularly one that is west based. That is actually true with any and all indexes though, not just the NAO. When the PNA or the EPO or the NAO ... etc, are unchanging, that means that they are in a state of equilibrium with respect to the other indexes, which represent conjoined regions that are influential back and forth ... mass exchange. Equilibrium = fair weather. That is simplest way to conceptualize the complexity of Index modulation there is. If the NAO...or PNA...or WPO...AO...etc., are changing, that means that the equilibrium is off... the 'stalemate' is broken - wars have begun that way ... And in this case, the war is a storm. Storms are simply what happens when the atmosphere is trying to get back to a state of equilibrium. Having said that ... the NAO is not our problem. Nope... This shit was going on last week when the NAO was not representing much of a quantifiable block up there. We have one now... And it arrived without a correction event - ... which for the indexes et al, we are on the western side of the NAO domain, pretty much on the boundary of where it terminates into the eastern end of the PNA really .. Since the prevailing weather ...wind, pattern, S/W ...L/W ...all of it, is west to east, an index change in the NAO can conceivably be observed without, because the forcing is heading east more readily. It's probably why Heather Archembaults statistical representation of these concepts also concluded that the correlation was much stronger with the PNA than it was in the NAO, which demo little skill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's the high temps for ORH....the only day that remotel sniffed 50F was the 47F high in the warm sector briefly on Saturday thi past weekend. Otherwise......total snoozefest way to run a torch month. I did see on the Channel 5 news this morning that this is now the second longest stretch of above normal days ever recorded for Boston. But a completely boring stretch except for the cutter torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: I did see on the Channel 5 news this morning that this is now the second longest stretch of above normal days ever recorded for Boston. But a completely boring stretch except for the cutter torches. Fraudulent torch....damn season can't even get that right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I am telling everyone on here, this clipper/miller B that was recently modeled to miss way too far to the east, is now impacting the Cape and Islands and parts of Eastern MA tomorrow. The 12z EURO and every piece of guidance is trending towards a faster tilt negative and a faster development to the surface system as it exits off the NJ coast and tracks south of Long Island. I think parts of SE MA will at least see an inverted trough develop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am telling everyone on here, this clipper/miller B that was recently modeled to miss way too far to the east, is now impacting the Cape and Islands and parts of Eastern MA tomorrow. The 12z EURO and every piece of guidance is trending towards a faster tilt negative and a faster development to the surface system as it exits off the NJ coast and tracks south of Long Island. I think parts of SE MA will at least see an inverted trough develop. Just stop......tell the Dawn to go back to sleep. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The negative NAO is really killing our chances . Just give me a positive PNA and negative epo instead of a negative NAO. You’ll never wish for that again, will you. You were a -NAO worshiper. Be careful what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Ray parts of central and southern CT, Ri and South Coast of MA including the Cape and Islands look to be in for a few inches tomorrow evening on the 18z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Perception is politics ... When 90% of civility sleeps when it is dark, and the ballast of the above normalness of it has been .... while it is dark, they are not readily perceiving the warmth. To say the least, it's truly is insidious ...because 34 F for a low ...no one considers that temperature comfortable regardless - I mean, this could not be a better elegantly calculated method for smashing records and hiding intents and purposes... hahaha. Seriously though ...the randomality of all has this going on while no one is looking - .. It's like last summer in some respects. I think we put up some pretty warm JJA numbers but it never felt particularly hot outside. I remember more memorable heat waves over the decades... Last year seems sort of tepid to very warm at times, before receding back - good convection though. I know it wasn't ubiquitously experienced but I clocked 8 severe warned events here in Ayer, and half verified with limbs and hail....wind. We had some really good lightning too, despite the U.S. lightning data saying the whole country was way down. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fraudulent torch....damn season can't even get that right. What's fraudulent about it? We're all sitting at close to +8 MTD. That's a torch by any definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray parts of central and southern CT, Ri and South Coast of MA including the Cape and Islands look to be in for a few inches tomorrow evening on the 18z HRRR Thanks. Most of us forecast for outside of our baby’s cribs. A few flakes will be nice to see for us southerners. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perception is politics ... When 90% of civility sleeps when it is dark, and the ballast of the above normalness of it has been .... while it is dark, they are not readily perceiving the warmth. To say the least, it's truly is insidious ...because 34 F for a low ...no one considers that temperature comfortable regardless - I mean, this could not be a better elegantly calculated method for smashing records and hiding intents and purposes... hahaha. Seriously though ...the randomality of all has this going on while no one is looking - .. It's like last summer in some respects. I think we put up some pretty warm JJA numbers but it never felt particularly hot outside. I remember more memorable heat waves over the decades... Last year seems sort of tepid to very warm at times, before receding back - good convection though. I know it wasn't ubiquitously experienced but I clocked 8 severe warned events here in Ayer, and half verified with limbs and hail....wind. We had some really good lightning too, despite the U.S. lightning data saying the whole country was way down. interesting. Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: What's fraudulent about it? We're all sitting at close to +8 MTD. That's a torch by any definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fraudulent torch....damn season can't even get that right. Agreed. If we're gonna torch, at least make it enjoyable and memorable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks. Most of us forecast for outside of our baby’s cribs. A few flakes will be nice to see for us southerners. No problem, I think the EURO is on to the event, but the QPF is paltry. The NAM seems to be less bullish then most of the guidance. The 18z NAM is coming in with a faster negative tilt. System seems a bit more north! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: What's fraudulent about it? We're all sitting at close to +8 MTD. That's a torch by any definition. Because it's never getting out of the 40s at best. Some 60s and some 0s would be far more enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks. Most of us forecast for outside of our baby’s cribs. A few flakes will be nice to see for us southerners. I really don't think the vast majority give a rat's ass....start a poll....secondly, I'll take the under on 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks. Most of us forecast for outside of our baby’s cribs. A few flakes will be nice to see for us southerners. I'm dusting off my yardstick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Technically, you are right, Bob...it still counts. I get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really don't think the vast majority give a rat's ass....start a poll....secondly, I'll take the under on 2". You’re melting more and more everyday. Just finish it off already...go big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Is there enough to sled today? 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It's not a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Is there enough to sled today? kevin your hood could see a few inches tomorrow afternoon/evening. This arctic air that is coming in is quite deep, 850mb temps near -12 to -18C, this will help spark cyclogenesis on a faster clip south of Long island as the negative tilting H5 shortwave reaches the ocean! Newest 18z models are showing a faster deepening, closer to New Jersey, like the last few cycles of the RGEM have been showing. Also the 18z HRRR is trending with a stronger initial band of snow moving through! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 You know ( or perhaps more apropos, 'don't wanna know' ), the climate reports, from observation to science/prediction and back ... all have been saying that the ballast of the global warming signal has been captured in fact by the nocturnal numbers. Last summer... now... I mean, this is all consistent with that, whether it is coincidental or not. It's probably some of both. I mean, GW happens in decimals... It took a century to go up 2 C or whatever it is... point being, we got to be +10 on the lows if we're +4 on highs or whatever in order to sustain a +7 at ORH ...that's not GW ... obviously .. ( man I'm bored today LOL ) .. else we be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kbosch said: Because it's never getting out of the 40s at best. Some 60s and some 0s would be far more enjoyable. 50s in January is not common. Plenty of days in the mid/upper 40s here though. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Technically, you are right, Bob...it still counts. I get that. Speaking from where I live, it's a pretty close split on the highs/lows. Within 2-3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: kevin your hood could see a few inches tomorrow afternoon/evening. This arctic air that is coming in is quite deep, 850mb temps near -12 to -18C, this will help spark cyclogenesis on a faster clip south of Long island as the negative tilting H5 shortwave reaches the ocean! Newest 18z models are showing a faster deepening, closer to New Jersey, like the last few cycles of the RGEM have been showing. Also the 18z HRRR is trending with a stronger initial band of snow moving through! If the Norlun we’ve been mentioning since Saturday happens , it’s possible. But I wouldn’t forecast it because it goes against persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If the Norlun we’ve been mentioning since Saturday happens , it’s possible. But I wouldn’t forecast it because it goes against persistence I don't know Kevin, persistence lasts only so long. The NAM has been struggling with this system still. It only takes a slightly faster negative tilt and our region sees more snow. the HRRR model keeps updating with a better scenario at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there enough to sled today? Ginx says grab the toboggan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If the Norlun we’ve been mentioning since Saturday happens , it’s possible. But I wouldn’t forecast it because it goes against persistence Sounds like you are referring to a Moron trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I'm going riding right inside this guys trailer, 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks. Most of us forecast for outside of our baby’s cribs. A few flakes will be nice to see for us southerners. I am on board. This is a very strong signal for an intense period of snow which could easily lay down a couple quick inches. The guy in Methuen isn't interested don't let that color your judgement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If the Norlun we’ve been mentioning since Saturday happens , it’s possible. But I wouldn’t forecast it because it goes against persistence One of the fraud fives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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