January 2021

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies went wild with the -AO/NAO well into February. If that is correct, we’re either in for more torture or a lot of fun. Can’t punt with that look. (Well I guess you can but it’s like punting on 4th and 2 at your opponent 40 down by 7 with 4 min to go)

What needs to change out west to work with that -NAO/AO combo?  Better ridging out west/Rockies Ridge/+PNA?  

[The 4 Seasons]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If end up with climo snowfall, and get 80% of it in a two week stretch, that is pissah IMO.

Sounds like 14-15. Though that was about 3 weeks and 250% of climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What needs to change out west to work with that -NAO/AO combo?  Better ridging out west/Rockies Ridge/+PNA?  

Exactly.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’m just hedging this is a delayed but not denied favorable 20-30 day stretch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m just hedging this is a delayed but not denied favorable 20-30 day stretch 

I could def. see that.....looking more hopeful we can hold a decent pattern into a significant portion of Feb. I think 30 is too aggressive, but maybe 15-20.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Sounds like 14-15. Though that was about 3 weeks and 250% of climo.

Here's the breakdown of that:

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What needs to change out west to work with that -NAO/AO combo?  Better ridging out west/Rockies Ridge/+PNA?  

Doesn’t look like we’re getting a +PNA again any time soon but a bit of Rockies ridging would help. Looks like that happens the last several days of the month which may help those threats a little more after the 1/26 one. The 1/26 threat itself is still on the table but the upside seems somewhat limited due to a lack of ridging in the Rockies. Not that most people here would even turn down an advisory event if offered, lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn’t look like we’re getting a +PNA again any time soon but a bit of Rockies ridging would help. Looks like that happens the last several days of the month which may help those threats a little more after the 1/26 one. The 1/26 threat itself is still on the table but the upside seems somewhat limited due to a lack of ridging in the Rockies. Not that most people here would even turn down an advisory event if offered, lol. 

Yea, PNA is still negative circa 1/29, but it nears neutral and it looks as though what ridging there is will be very well positioned. I'll bet  the big Feb 1969 and Jan 2011 events had something similar.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Here's the breakdown of that:

 

What’s the reference point on those dates? They definitely aren’t the “max snow in a 30 day period” that winter because BOS had 90.2” between 1/24 and 2/15 which is just over 3 weeks. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could def. see that.....looking more hopeful we can hold a decent pattern into a significant portion of Feb.

What was once a favorable Jan with a sketchy Feb seems to have been pushed back. Hopefully we won’t keep kicking the can all the way into April and ruin it lol. But I’ve always thought the atmosphere changes slowly and slower than any computer simulation wants to spit out. 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s the reference point on those dates? They definitely aren’t the “max snow in a 30 day period” that winter because BOS had 90.2” between 1/24 and 2/15 which is just over 3 weeks. 

You are correct Will.  That was from a blog posted by Met Dave Epstein on Feb 10, 2015, and as his blog stated, more snow was on the way before the 15th.  So that was probably accurate at that date, but the next storm just added to the totals.

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2015/02/10/the_great_snow_of_2015

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

You are correct Will.  That was from a blog posted by Met Dave Epstein on Feb 10, 2015, and as his blog stated, more snow was on the way before the 15th.  So that was probably accurate at that date, but the next storm just added to the totals.

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2015/02/10/the_great_snow_of_2015

Ahh ok makes sense...yeah that’s how ridiculous that winter was, lol...we already had smashed 30 day snowfall records just over 2 weeks into the blitz and another major storm was on the way. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Wintry here in Chicagoland.  Temps where we’re staying in the upper 20s this afternoon with about an inch or so of snow otg.  Makes a big difference having wintry appeal.   

No fries, chips

[DavisStraight]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What was once a favorable Jan with a sketchy Feb seems to have been pushed back. Hopefully we won’t keep kicking the can all the way into April and ruin it lol. But I’ve always thought the atmosphere changes slowly and slower than any computer simulation wants to spit out. 

Give me a good second half of Jan and most of Feb and I'm good with that.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What was once a favorable Jan with a sketchy Feb seems to have been pushed back. Hopefully we won’t keep kicking the can all the way into April and ruin it lol. But I’ve always thought the atmosphere changes slowly and slower than any computer simulation wants to spit out. 

You would’ve thought we could score at least 1 or 2 half-decent events out of this. 

 

 

I’ll consider us fortunate that the NAO isn’t going away any time soon and we’ll get to take some more hacks at it with a better cold source. 

[TalcottWx]

I need more us weather airforce and mjo posts, that is what I come on here to read. Jimmy and ant's unique analysis

[Henry's Weather]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You would’ve thought we could score at least 1 or 2 half-decent events out of this. 

 

 

I’ll consider us fortunate that the NAO isn’t going away any time soon and we’ll get to take some more hacks at it with a better cold source. 

is that not a suppression look verbatim?

[78Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ahh ok makes sense...yeah that’s how ridiculous that winter was, lol...we already had smashed 30 day snowfall records just over 2 weeks into the blitz and another major storm was on the way. 

Other records that seemingly get lost in that memorable snow year of 2015 are that Boston recorded 28 consecutive days with lows 20 degrees or colder from Jan. 25 through Feb. 21, breaking the all-time record of 27 consecutive days set Jan. 12 through Feb. 7, 1881, and Boston also failed to reach 40 degrees from January 20 through March 3, a record streak of 43 consecutive days. The previous such record streak of 42 straight days was set in the winter of 1968-1969.

The snow never had a chance to melt before the next storm hit, lol.

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

is that not a suppression look verbatim?

Yeah it def favors storms staying south of us...of course the irony being when we needed it most (Friday night and early Saturday), we couldn’t get it to squeeze south of us and keep us snow. 

Usually you’ll get a storm or two that will try to run up into that block and produce for us...instead we just got skunked a few different ways. 

[Greg]

16 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Other records that seemingly get lost in that memorable snow year of 2015 are that Boston recorded 28 consecutive days with lows 20 degrees or colder from Jan. 25 through Feb. 21, breaking the all-time record of 27 consecutive days set Jan. 12 through Feb. 7, 1881, and Boston also failed to reach 40 degrees from January 20 through March 3, a record streak of 43 consecutive days. The previous such record streak of 42 straight days was set in the winter of 1968-1969.

The snow never had a chance to melt before the next storm hit, lol.

 

Actually, the snow took only a day or two to sublimate. Most of the storms we got that stretch were fluffy and dry. That type of snow is far less dense and usually compacts fairly quickly.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

Actually, the snow took only a day or two to sublimate. Most of the storms we got were fluffy and dry. That type of snow is far less dense and usually compacts fairly quickly.

I know down here the two storms that followed the SB had some more meat in them. It was never a wet snow but we got close to tipping over to sleet on 2/2/15 and the long duration one on Monday also got more juicy when we were on the other side of the CF. 

[Ginx snewx]

RGEM drops a couple of inches as well

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s the reference point on those dates? They definitely aren’t the “max snow in a 30 day period” that winter because BOS had 90.2” between 1/24 and 2/15 which is just over 3 weeks. 

 

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Here's the breakdown of that:

 

Something is seriously wrong with that graphic with so many metrics. 7 day snowfall 15.6 for ORH? or 3 day 14.4? ORH got 31.9 on 1/27 alone. Not to mention pretty much everything else is off.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s the reference point on those dates? They definitely aren’t the “max snow in a 30 day period” that winter because BOS had 90.2” between 1/24 and 2/15 which is just over 3 weeks. 

That still is mind blowing and I don’t think it will ever change.

The most I ever witnessed was back when I really skiing all day, every day.  2016-17 was something like 108” in around 3 weeks at the High Road 3kft board.  I checked it at least 5 days a week per winter in that stretch of years...morning and afternoon (~8-9am/4pm).

To witness that level in the Boston area, highly populated... is insane.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You would’ve thought we could score at least 1 or 2 half-decent events out of this. 

 

 

I’ll consider us fortunate that the NAO isn’t going away any time soon and we’ll get to take some more hacks at it with a better cold source. 

NAO south again.

[ineedsnow]

If it doesn't snow soon I'm going to build a snow gun and make it snow my damn self I'm over this snowless crap!  First covid makes it so we have nothing to do and then winter says screw all you winter lovers we'll just keep it snowless so you're even more depressed when you look out the window ugh!!!

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That still is mind blowing and I don’t think it will ever change.

The most I ever witnessed was back when I really skiing all day, every day.  2016-17 was something like 108” in around 3 weeks at the High Road 3kft board.  I checked it at least 5 days a week per winter in that stretch of years...morning and afternoon (~8-9am/4pm).

To witness that level in the Boston area, highly populated... is insane.

Yeah it’s still mind blowing to me too. There was easily over 100” in that same period just south or south-southwest of BOS. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s still mind blowing to me too. There was easily over 100” in that same period just south or south-southwest of BOS. 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The greatest time of our lives. It will never happen again 

[Greg]

I don't really know why many people just say south and southwest of Boston got over 100" of snow. The whole Boston area in general was in that years bullseye. The northwest suburbs and Northshore received very similar and even slightly more in a couple of places, especially the immediate Northshore with help of Ocean Effect Snow at times.