TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I work exclusively outside now. It's been great weather in that respect. But I do look forward to working in snowy conditions. I like a challenge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I thought it was a nina thing to get strewn-out shortwaves, no? Niña is fast flow gradient with shortwaves getting sheared. Thats happening in the upcoming pattern but December and first half of this month had a lot of slow blocky flow...we actually had too many shortwaves at times starting to pile up on each other causing destructive interference which screwed us out of a couple events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s why I haven’t been down on the first half of Feb. It looks like we may have festering -NAO for a time. Also, another 50mb warm nose punch develops near the dateline and side swings on the vortex from the dateline. yeah ...I'm in Will's camp ...I don't see that there's any forcing on the AO registering at present. It's still "invisible" to the models et al until that tropopause /// coupling. If it does, and the -AO patterning favors Eurasian/Siberian conveyors ... fine - but utterly a blind dice roll for about a week to 10 days ... maybe 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. I’d ask this question first....how many times have you had 3 subpar seasons in a row? I’ll bet the answer is very few. For ORH I can only think of 4 times going back to 1950. (Btw I defined “subpar” as anything below the 40th percentile...so if ORH had 64” in a season, that is considered “normal” in my classification...even though technically it is slightly below the long term mean of 69”) 1. ‘97-98 through ‘99-‘00 2 ‘88-89 through ‘91-‘92 (this is 4 consecutive...the only time) 4. ‘78-‘79 through ‘80-‘81 3. ‘52-‘53 through ‘54-‘55 So our sample size here is actually 4. If you took it at face value, that means we’d have a 1 in 4 chance of getting 4 in a row. However, we know small sample sizes aren’t representative of the longer term probability, and the chances of getting 4 in a row are actually close to 50/50 unless there is some meteorological reason to believe that the 4th season is biased toward above normal snowfall after 3 subpar seasons. I certainly cannot come to that conclusion statistically with a mere sample size of 4 trials. We first need to reach 3 seasons in a row. That’s far from a done deal considering many spots are actually above normal still. Frankly, I don't even care to read through this, but that fact that you are agreeing with him is good enough for me. I'll defer to the fact that he is mathematically correct, but it has been a rare climatological feat over the past century or so. That is good enough for me. I'm not saying to base an outlook on that, but if there is no overwhelming signal, then it would tip the scale for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon. This is why I said last month that I would pass on the SSW. If it doesn't evolve in a favorable manner, then it can ruin the entire season by bottling cold on the other side of the globe and stagnating the MJO on the worse phases....this also happened in 2019. The spontaneous ejaculations of winter enthusiasts at the mere mention of this poorly understood phenomenon needs to stop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Amazing how much Jan ‘69 is showing up on the objective analogs these days...you hate to see it. Lets hope the season follows the same progression as that one did. I mentioned Jan '69 to you and Scott via text this wknd ha. RNA, baby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why I said last month that I would pass on the SSW. If it doesn't evolve in a favorable manner, then it can ruin the entire season by bottling cold on the other side of the globe and stagnating the MJO on the worse phases. The spontaneous ejaculations of winter enthusiasts at the mere mention of this poorly understood phenomenon needs to stop. Lol...there’s a few of those poorly understood phenomena floating around the meteorological world, that some of these Twitter METS seem to hype. So glad I’m not on any of that sh*t, and don’t see any of that garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...there’s a few of those poorly understood phenomena floating around the meteorological world, that some of these Twitter METS seem to hype. So glad I’m not on any of that sh*t, and don’t see any of that garbage. Not that it can't still work out...part of me feels like February will invent ways to snow even if the pattern fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 51 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Another run, another result... With that look and block modeled, I would put my money on that being a Mid Atlantic special...I bet we get ours (nothing huge) when the pattern reshuffles toward February. Then who knows what happens.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not that it can't still work out...part of me feels like February will invent ways to snow even if the pattern fades. One would hope. I agree though. Something should pop at some point. It’s not easy to get a shut out. Obviously it can happen, but it’s not easy to do in SNE at peak climo time coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 I def. wouldn't expect Feb 1969 in a mod la nina, though....that was a weak el nino. I don't know that we have ever had a "big" second half in a mod-strong la nina peak season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 There are signs of another SSWE at the end of this month/early Feb too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 My hope for this season is to grab two mod events the last week of January, maybe 12" in Feb and 12" in March...call it a season. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: There are signs of another SSWE at the end of this month/early Feb too. I just wish the heat flux would stop propagating into MBY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just wish the heat flux would stop propagating into MBY. Heat Flux propagating into my fanny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 We need Scott to fully bottom out and then something will pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Heat Flux propagating into my fanny Its usually out of mine....then folks downwell through the stairs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Heat Flux propagating into my fanny Ayo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My hope for this season is to grab two mod events the last week of January, maybe 12" in Feb and 12" in March...call it a season. 12" in Feb would destroy my soul... but it fits with your long term outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...there’s a few of those poorly understood phenomena floating around the meteorological world, that some of these Twitter METS seem to hype. So glad I’m not on any of that sh*t, and don’t see any of that garbage. I'm with you on that. Tip just gave me some reinforcement for never having joined the Twit idiocracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: We need Scott to fully bottom out and then something will pop Ha, at some point you just shrug and say nothing you can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming in further south for the 26th lol - two runs ago the primary was wound up and running up through Michigan, with some decent overrunning potential for us. Now it's sheared and south of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ha, at some point you just shrug and say nothing you can do. Or maybe you just say “it’s not happening “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Another 7-10 days of spotless vehicles with nothing coming. Just washed the truck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, PWMan said: lol - two runs ago the primary was wound up and running up through Michigan, with some decent overrunning potential for us. Now it's sheared and south of NE. The GGEM did the same thing yesterday, and now today's 12z run has it over Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 OP runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not that it can't still work out...part of me feels like February will invent ways to snow even if the pattern fades. I hope so, I guess I got a little excited by the twitter mets talking up this supposed blockbuster February, I know to come here for the common sense information... I just want to make the $1k of work i put in my snowmobile to have some fruits of my labor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: OP runs. The ensembles haven't been very accurate lately, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, 78Blizzard said: The ensembles haven't been very accurate lately, either. It’s not a perfect science, true. But this signal has been there, that’s all I care about. Get it to like d5 then I’ll start taking any op run more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, PWMan said: lol - two runs ago the primary was wound up and running up through Michigan, with some decent overrunning potential for us. Now it's sheared and south of NE. Looks like the Euro has joined the southern route bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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