Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

image.thumb.gif.bb6fcfeb9b7417af7ecf3eef0a4a7b35.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.a3d31f1d389d11f0c2ebc5943408ebd7.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.7d3b383ea35ff8f44a5b69bbc0b2e529.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.1b2f04eda23864f8340a62cc23d98b47.gif

It’s not a good pattern though unless it snows. Maybe on paper the hemisphere looks good, but it’s not favorable unless it delivers . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Doubt that will ever happen, I'm married....lol, I'm heading north this weekend but i hear its a shi tshow because your putting a lot of people in a small area because of lack of snow statewide so everyone and his brother are flocking NW.

Head for the county...never seems crowded up there..cuz nobody wants to drive that far lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a good pattern though unless it snows. Maybe on paper the hemisphere looks good, but it’s not favorable unless it delivers . 

There’s the longwave pattern and there’s the shortwaves embedded in it. 

We know what favorable longwave patterns look like. We have a good history of them. Longwave patterns are more predictable in advance. We have no idea what shortwaves will do until  we get closer. There are examples of favorable longwave patterns that didn’t deliver (See January 1985). There are also examples of unfavorable longwave patterns that did. (See January 2006 for interior SNE) 

When meta discuss the “pattern”, they are almost always talking about the hemispheric long wave pattern. Usually we will specify when we’re talking scales smaller than that. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

image.thumb.gif.bb6fcfeb9b7417af7ecf3eef0a4a7b35.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.a3d31f1d389d11f0c2ebc5943408ebd7.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.7d3b383ea35ff8f44a5b69bbc0b2e529.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.1b2f04eda23864f8340a62cc23d98b47.gif

Good illustration of how these little s/w features just mucking things up. That cutoff near CA is effing us in the near term. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a good pattern though unless it snows. Maybe on paper the hemisphere looks good, but it’s not favorable unless it delivers . 

But all we have is paper when you’re over 10 days out. We don’t have the skill to break down those that produce and those that don’t. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

But going into February, it seems like the EPO craps out badly based on nearly all the latest ensembles means. Meanwhile the NAO seems surprisingly persistent, but I don't know how much that helps with the MJO at the very worst phase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But all we have is paper when you’re over 10 days out. We don’t have the skill to break down those that produce and those that don’t. 

You would think models or at least ensembles would at least get one correct. If they can model the hemisphere correctly they should be able to forecast a snow event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah we’re finally hitting some longwave line drives, but they’re right at someone. The other extreme is a bloop hit in a lousy pattern. Yeah, we’d rather get a hit than an out, but going forward you’d rather take your chances with Ortiz liners over Cesar Crespo weak flares.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You would think models or at least ensembles would at least get one correct. If they can model the hemisphere correctly they should be able to forecast a snow event.

The whole pattern is modeled correctly. But within large scale patterns are details you can just really narrow down. Especially with models that have 30-50 members in them. They will smooth out those details. I will say the gfs op runs have shown the details fairly accurately, but I would Never weigh op runs much past a week out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s the longwave pattern and there’s the shortwaves embedded in it. 

We know what favorable longwave patterns look like. We have a good history of them. Longwave patterns are more predictable in advance. We have no idea what shortwaves will do until  we get closer. There are examples of favorable longwave patterns that didn’t deliver (See January 1985). There are also examples of unfavorable longwave patterns that did. (See January 2006 for interior SNE) 

When meta discuss the “pattern”, they are almost always talking about the hemispheric long wave pattern. Usually we will specify when we’re talking scales smaller than that. 

I try to rationalize weather conditions down here in S FL to see if there are any correlation to weather in New England. In 7 years this is by far the coldest winter I have had so not sure how a cold SE impacts weather for New England?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January .

Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin  models can't even get a storm right a week out.

Any Meteorologist that called for an epic January based upon an SSW that didn't materialize until the first week of January ... does/did not understand thetotal model of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming gestation -

TIME LAG!   20 days ( as illustrated in the annotation farther below )

For the general user/reader of this weather-related hobby/social media: You could do yourself a favor if you understanding that lag. If you had back in December, might have known better and been protected from the beguiling turns excitement-intending phrases by Twits  ;)

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

Will and I mused about this a month ago ...and yup, that's been the best prediction leveled this winter thus far.  We literally discussed in no uncertain terms how the -AO (erstwhile) would be mistaken and falsely connected to the advent of the SSW.  

Here we are ...... NAILED it... lol,.  Heh, wasn't exactly a tricky foresight, no. 

image.png.f9394a81185eeec5c736928cb4ab644a.png

Having displayed this and explain that ...

Yeah, it's even possible that a -AO won't pay cold and snowy dividends, either.   This one didn't - why should any future -AO be required to. 

So, part of the problem with the Twit toxicology of the Sociological dilemma is that no way does a Twit stupified dumb down idiocracy have enough space to elucidate a complex field of study and environmental problem solving required to understand the SSW...

So, no Met should even push any vision of what one should mean to weather patterns and storm this or cold that - ... Maybe advertise one as imminent ? sure - but then direct the reader to a real study.  Irresponsible informatica is going to doom Humanity. 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Any Meteorologist that called for an epic January based upon an SSW that didn't materialize until the first week of January ... does/did not understand thetotal model of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming gestation -

TIME LAG!   20 days ( as illustrated in the annotation farther below )

For the general user/reader of this weather-related hobby/social media: You could do yourself a favor if you understanding that lag. If you had back in December, might have known better and been protected from the beguiling turns excitement-intending phrases by Twits  ;)

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

Will and I mused about this a month ago ...and yup, that's been the best prediction leveled this winter thus far.  We literally discussed in no uncertain terms how the -AO (erstwhile) would be mistaken and falsely connected to the advent of the SSW.  

Here we are ...... NAILED it... lol,.  Heh, wasn't exactly a tricky foresight, no. 

image.thumb.png.118d388f5b85bd99220aebdaed6439bb.png

 

This is actually what keeps me somewhat skeptical of the resignation by many that February will be bad for snow lovers. Sure, I admit it might, but this SSW hasn’t manifested yet in the troposphere and it still could throw a wrench into February. Some of the longer term guidance shows the AO/NAO region starting to act a bit stubborn as we head deeper into February so maybe we we get something like a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/-NAO/-AO pattern....those can be good (See February 1969) or they could still suck but I think we still have to wait and see what happens with that SSW impact. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is actually what keeps me somewhat skeptical of the resignation by many that February will be bad for snow lovers. Sure, I admit it might, but this SSW hasn’t manifested yet in the troposphere and it still could throw a wrench into February. Some of the longer term guidance shows the AO/NAO region starting to act a bit stubborn as we head deeper into February so maybe we we get something like a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/-NAO/-AO pattern....those can be good (See February 1969) or they could still suck but I think we still have to wait and see what happens with that SSW impact. 

This should be a required banner at the top of all log -ins for the next two weeks, just like the "no politics" reminder -

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I try to rationalize weather conditions down here in S FL to see if there are any correlation to weather in New England. In 7 years this is by far the coldest winter I have had so not sure how a cold SE impacts weather for New England?

Usually cold FL happens in El Niño though there are exceptions like 2010-2011. We talked about how much this past 6 weeks has looked like El Niño and not La Niña so the cold FL makes sense in that regard. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Usually cold FL happens in El Niño though there are exceptions like 2010-2011. We talked about how much this past 6 weeks has looked like El Niño and not La Niña so the cold FL makes sense in that regard. 

 

I thought it was a nina thing to get strewn-out shortwaves, no?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This should be a required banner at the top of all log -ins for the next two weeks, just like the "no politics" reminder -

 

That’s why I haven’t been down on the first half of Feb. It looks like we may have festering -NAO for a time. Also, another 50mb warm nose punch develops near the dateline and side swings on the vortex from the dateline.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...