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January 2021


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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. 
At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon.

It's over. Nature has always been a solid indicator of what's coming....

 

 

Screenshot_20210117-144612_Gallery_50.jpg

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

How did Jan69 end in your memory bank?

One of the least snowiest Januarys on record....pattern wasn’t even that bad either kind of like this year. It wasn’t as torchy but slightly above average temps. 

Of course we all know that things turned around in Feb ‘69. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't see Feb69 walking in the door, And this is going to go down as one of if not the most anemic Jan for snow.

In ‘69 they didn’t see it coming either lol. Nobody sees that coming.  It just lines up and happens ever once in a great while.  Of course I’m not predicting that to happen this year...but I think you know what I mean.  But Ya, it sucks currently..big time. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January .

Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin  models can't even get a storm right a week out.

I don't know how long you've been around here, but you should know to not pay Twitter Mets any attention anyway. Also watching the SSW for a pattern change is usually useless as tits on a bull as far as I've seen since its been a thing talked about on this forum.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. I’d ask this question first....how many times have you had 3 subpar seasons in a row? 

I’ll bet the answer is very few. For ORH I can only think of 4 times going back to 1950. (Btw I defined “subpar” as anything below the 40th percentile...so if ORH had 64” in a season, that is considered “normal” in my classification...even though technically it is slightly below the long term mean of 69”)

1. ‘97-98 through ‘99-‘00

2 ‘88-89 through ‘91-‘92 (this is 4 consecutive...the only time)

4. ‘78-‘79 through ‘80-‘81

3. ‘52-‘53 through ‘54-‘55

So our sample size here is actually 4. If you took it at face value, that means we’d have a 1 in 4 chance of getting 4 in a row. However, we know small sample sizes aren’t representative of the longer term probability, and the chances of getting 4 in a row are actually close to 50/50 unless there is some meteorological reason to believe that the 4th season is biased toward above normal snowfall after 3 subpar seasons. I certainly cannot come to that conclusion statistically with a mere sample size of 4 trials. 

 

We first need to reach 3 seasons in a row. That’s far from a done deal considering many spots are actually above normal still. 

Yes, and while keeping in mind that in a hockey-sticking CC world ( for those who embrace reality )  it is logical to consider the coin as steadily more weighted on one side.

I realize your just conveying a statistical concept there ... but, applying this to the real world now requires a deeper look.

Reiterating a talking point from autumn ... our 'flop directions' seem to less and less be favoring frozen verification types. Best to describe 'flop direction' via a description.

Suppose one is looking at a middle -range modeled cyclone with +1 C swathed amid the NW quadrant of it's QPF layout:  In 1995, that's a blue snow; in 2021, that's cat paws.  And analyzing the two events may not demonstratively reveal very many differences - its part of the insidiously slow nature in which CC expresses. 

I do critique that idea, however ... advances in modeling over the last 25 years could certainly atone for that.  Yet, climate migration is real - that paragon is sensitive to decimal-worth of change, because of the quantum nature of molecular phase-change physics.  Because we are in fact in a polar migration wrt the climate banding around the hemisphere, that brings these disparate explanations into competition.  It's subtle... It's insidious, but CC could very well be claiming these events. 

We are also event wealthy in recent decades. So, we are getting more snow in the aggregate purely by virtue of having more opportunities.  That obfuscates and buries truths ...

So the governing point of this example is that ...maybe just maybe stringing 3 or 4 years of "bad" winters while, say, every half decade we get a Feb 2015 ... is more common now. ... All of which is also buried in 'virtual climate' provided by the cinema age of weather modeling and the Internet engagement aspect - there's that too. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes, and while keeping in mind that in a hockey-sticking CC world ( for those who embrace reality )  it is logical to consider the coin as steadily more weighted on one side.

I realize your just conveying a statistical concept there ... but, applying this to the real world now requires another a deeper look.

Reiterating a talking point from autumn ... our 'flop directions' seem to less and less favoring frozen verification types.  Best to describe 'flop direction' via a description.

Suppose one is looking at a middle -range modeled cyclone with +1 C swathed amid the NW quadrant of it's QPF layout:  In 1995, that's a blue snow; in 2021, that's cat paws.  And analyzing the two events may not demonstratively any differences - its part of the insidiously slow nature in which CC expresses. 

I do critique that idea, however ... advances in modeling over the last 25 years could certainly atone for that.  Yet, climate migration is real - that paragon is sensitive to decimal because of the phase-change physics.  Because we are at in a polar migration in the climate banding around the hemisphere, that brings these explanations into competition.  It's subtle... It's insidious, but CC could very well be claiming these events. 

We are also event wealthy in recent decades. So, we are getting more snow in the aggregate purely by virtue of having more opportunities.  

Agreed that we’re not static, however I’d push back on assuming that CC means less snow here, at least in terms of where we are now on the timeline. The empirical evidence thus far actually points to the opposite conclusion. 

Eventually the warming would reach a point where it becomes more dominant than the “higher precipitation” signal which is driving the increased snowfall in the past couple decades. 

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26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January .

Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin  models can't even get a storm right a week out.

Stop listening to twitter weenie mets like JB, Henry Margusity, etc., and unfollow Eric Webb. He’s an arrogant, know it all little shit. Epic bust after epic bust from him since November. Dude sucks and he’s pompous as hell, hasn’t gotten a damn thing right

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Been some awful calls here too by a bunch of weenies.

I would be happy if I was you looking long term. As far as the rest of the SNE forum goes, everyone here is a 2 hour drive from deep snow. You need an immediate fix take a ride. I just last night was able to read the Dec snow thread. Obvious some people here will never be happy. Hopefully some day you will be able to relocate to a region high in elevation that has snow OTG November to May

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Stop listening to twitter weenie mets like JB, Henry Margusity, etc., and unfollow Eric Webb. He’s an arrogant, know it all little shit. Epic bust after epic bust from him since November. Dude sucks and he’s pompous as hell, hasn’t gotten a damn thing right

He does hype alot. Even DT was calling for a good pattern.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Starting to wonder if this is the third year in a row where the best "winter" pattern for the reach doesn't emerge until March/April. I'm remembering correctly that March/April last two years were best pattern of respective season right?

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

image.thumb.gif.bb6fcfeb9b7417af7ecf3eef0a4a7b35.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.a3d31f1d389d11f0c2ebc5943408ebd7.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.7d3b383ea35ff8f44a5b69bbc0b2e529.gif

 

image.thumb.gif.1b2f04eda23864f8340a62cc23d98b47.gif

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I would be happy if I was you looking long term. As far as the rest of the SNE forum goes, everyone here is a 2 hour drive from deep snow. You need aN immediate fix take a ride. I just last night was able to read the Dec snow thread. Obvious some people here will never be happy. Hopefully some day you will be able to relocate to a region high in elevation that has snow OTG November to May

Doubt that will ever happen, I'm married....lol, I'm heading north this weekend but i hear its a shi tshow because your putting a lot of people in a small area because of lack of snow statewide so everyone and his brother are flocking NW.

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11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He does hype alot. Even DT was calling for a good pattern.

Nobody can say...they’ve all been wrong.  Just wait and see.  It’s really that simple.  Why would anybody believe any long term modeling  this year...cuz as you’ve stated they can’t get anything right outside 5-7 days. 

At some point you’d have to think something has to break favorable...being were only two days past mid January, right? 

Or it’ll be worse than ‘12 and go down in infamy. That’d be extreme, just not in the way we’d all like.  

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