January 2021

[78Blizzard]

All that arctic cold that the GFS was pushing just 24 hours ago has evaporated into thin air.  Lately these models are about as useful as the groundhog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

All that arctic cold that the GFS was pushing just 24 hours ago has evaporated into thin air.  Lately these models are about as useful as the groundhog.

Personally, if the N stream can't dig, I'd just assume recover the PV and be done with it. I don't think anyone yearns for Jan 2004 with bare ground. Pack it up, and take my chances next season after four consecutive years with below avg snowfall. I like my odds next year in that case, statistically speaking.

[Fozz]

This winter is testing my patience, especially after last year. In the middle of January, I shouldn’t have to go all the way to northern NH to see a nice storm and decent skiing conditions.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Fozz said:

This winter is testing my patience, especially after last year. In the middle of January, I shouldn’t have to go all the way to northern NH to see a nice storm and decent skiing conditions.

You could always go visit Jaime in WV

 

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You could always go visit Jaime in WV

 

Canaan is a nice little ski area. I’m glad they’re getting some real snow for a change after several lousy seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's a frustrating catch 22....we need the N stream energy to phase w the Pac energy, but the N stream can't dig enough to hit us bc of all the energy out west. Yea, can do it with all N stream, but it still needs to dig...otherwise we just see that strange cat in New Foundland making more nude youtube videos.

[codfishsnowman]

On 1/15/2021 at 1:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Lets just do a repeat of Jan '05....we get the 2-4" clipper appetizer 2 days before the next clipper detonates into a nuke that forever lives in James Nichols' lore.

Let's also get the big snows back to at least the New York border

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Personally, if the N stream can't dig, I'd just assume recover the PV and be done with it. I don't think anyone yearns for Jan 2004 with bare ground. Pack it up, and take my chances next season after four consecutive years with below avg snowfall. I like my odds next year in that case, statistically speaking.

“Regression is a bitch”. 

[Henry's Weather]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Personally, if the N stream can't dig, I'd just assume recover the PV and be done with it. I don't think anyone yearns for Jan 2004 with bare ground. Pack it up, and take my chances next season after four consecutive years with below avg snowfall. I like my odds next year in that case, statistically speaking.

gambler's fallacy

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

gambler's fallacy

I only have one stretch of four consecutive below avg snowfall seasons on record, so call it whatever the hell you want.

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Yeah I was in southern ct for Feb 2006 . There was a legendary gradient near Springfield, MA  My parents house had 19 near the East Longmeadow line and the northwest side of the city got like 6.  

 

I had 16 to 17 and brief 3/hr rates and a couple claps of thunder....when I went downtown to work two miles nw they had 8 or so...and eastern East longmeadow out to Hampden two feet plus

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Ray I kind of liked Jan 94. I would take it over this Jan any way any day

[raindancewx]

The early January warmth in 2021 in your region is something that occurred in 2008 as well. Not guaranteeing Maine gets a lot of snow later on like that year, but given that the pattern nationally is a decent match to January 2008 so far, I wouldn't completely write off a modified 2008 solution. 

This is Caribou in Jan 2021 (high/low, anomaly):

28.6/17.8 +12.5 for 1/1 to 1/16

This is Caribou in Jan 2008:

27.6/12.2 +9.3 for 1/1 to 1/16

[Henry's Weather]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I only have one stretch of four consecutive below avg snowfall seasons on record, so call it whatever the hell you want

fallacious

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Personally, if the N stream can't dig, I'd just assume recover the PV and be done with it. I don't think anyone yearns for Jan 2004 with bare ground. Pack it up, and take my chances next season after four consecutive years with below avg snowfall. I like my odds next year in that case, statistically speaking.

God can roll snake eyes for a long time.  Longer than any of us can hold out!  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

If the lack of snow wasn't bad enough it has been constant clouds in WNE.  Weeks of gray and mid-30's isn't great for the morale. 

[CoastalWx]

Even with CAA it’s AN temps lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

More quiet times ahead for at least the next week, I fear, as an active N branch continues to be inhibited by the lower heights out west.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/active-northern-stream-pattern.html

[MJO812]

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I had as much in 1 storm as Buffalo has had on the season. I wonder if that’s ever happened for this date.

 

edit...obviously 2011-12 is another year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

God can roll snake eyes for a long time.  Longer than any of us can hold out!  

Yes, and your uncle can sprout a vag, but odds are against it without surgical assist.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even with CAA it’s AN temps lol. 

I hope that continues....no storms, I have no use for bitter cold.

[78Blizzard]

Interesting that DC has had only a trace of snow thus far this winter.  I recall quite a few model runs showing them in the bullseye for double digit snows.  But we've had our share of those as well.  Tells you the state of modelology this winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

fallacious

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. There is a reason we average what we do.....odds are against sub par seasons several years in a row.

Fact, not opinion.

[TalcottWx]

7 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Some of you guys need medication. Lol

  

Some would benefit from Xanax 

[CoastalWx]

Oh Henry.

[powderfreak]

What a weenie 00z GFS run for this week at the ski areas.

It snows almost daily, bringing another 1” QPF to the mountains over about 4 events in 7 days... at cold temperatures.

850mb temps are in the sweet spot for fluffy orographic snows, probably the one time the Kuchie maps should be closer to reality.

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a weenie 00z GFS run for this week at the ski areas.

It snows almost daily, bringing another 1” QPF to the mountains over about 4 events in 7 days... at cold temperatures.

850mb temps are in the sweet spot for fluffy orographic snows, probably the one time the Kuchie maps should be closer to reality.

Lol. You sure they aren’t counting the amount of qpf shot out of snow guns once the temps are optimal?

[Kbosch]

These threads are high comedy. I thank you all, especially the regulars, on behalf of those who mostly lurk and laugh. 

We're struggling. Even a swing and a miss would be welcome at this point - something, anything, to track and ponder. As many have mentioned in the last few weeks, vaporizing our cover on Christmas was the most devastating component of this awful stretch. It'd been a lot different around these parts if we were clinging to that well into 2021.

It's particularly painful to me to have watched the coastal Connecticut sky spitting out snow last May, and then again in October, only to leave us with this purgatory in prime time. We all know what February can do. We got this. Stay sane.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS looks decent for the 26th, albeit still a bit suppressed. I really like the last week of January post 1/25, after the pattern peaks, for several inches of snow. Both 1/26 and especially 1/29 viable threats.

Sell this week-