CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m starting to give up like Scooter . This is just not our winter . Really down I will say the 26th does have some factors in it’s place. More than this upcoming week ever had. The flow overall sucks. Too much nrn stream garbage flying around. It would work better without pieces of that ridge out west breaking off, ULL diving SSW into CA.......there’s just too much crap everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 But if you throw enough crap at the wall, eventually it sticks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I am so close to cancelling winter you don't even know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Winter: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But if you throw enough crap at the wall, eventually it sticks? It’s been a river of rhea since Christmas. This is why you enjoy the good seasons when they happen. When it’s sucks, it really sucks. I’m trying to be hopeful, but at some point it feels like you’re just fooling yourself. Anyways, 6z EPS gives hope for some light snows later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been a river of rhea since Christmas. This is why you enjoy the good seasons when they happen. When it’s sucks, it really sucks. I’m trying to be hopeful, but at some point it feels like you’re just fooling yourself. Anyways, 6z EPS gives hope for some light snows later this week. Well, we’ll take whatever we can get. Whatever the season wants to give us? Even some Crumbs would be nice at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Morning runs taking the primary wayyyy west for the 26th, like Lake Michigan and trying for some redevelopment but in some instances sends it due East, almost ESE off southern Jersey. Not really a KU look, but as discussed this isn’t a KU pattern really. I’ll be happy to freeze the mud and cover the grass at this point. Just make it look like winter FFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Morning runs taking the primary wayyyy west for the 26th, like Lake Michigan and trying for some redevelopment but in some instances sends it due East, almost ESE off southern Jersey. Not really a KU look, but as discussed this isn’t a KU pattern really. I’ll be happy to freeze the mud and cover the grass at this point. Just make it look like winter FFS. I mean 9 days out...we all know there’s gonna be many other developments to that potential system on either end of the spectrum. If it even materializes at all? We wait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thought we had a shot at a couple light accumulating events this week. The tenor of the season since Dec 17th has been for models to lose all snow as you get in close, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. Next up to get disappointed on is the one on the 25th. After that it’s Feb and at that point winter is more than half over . The whole month of Jan just lost The smart ones punted a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: The smart ones punted a long time ago. To be fair. You punt on 1st and 10 quite often. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The smart ones punted a long time ago. As soon as it snowed in October the kicking unit was warming up on the sidelines. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: To be fair. You punt on 1st and 10 quite often. Lmao I was just gonna say something along those lines. He doesn’t even bother taking the ball period most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As soon as it snowed in October the kicking unit was warming up on the sidelines. We tried to tell em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been a river of rhea since Christmas. This is why you enjoy the good seasons when they happen. When it’s sucks, it really sucks. I’m trying to be hopeful, but at some point it feels like you’re just fooling yourself. Anyways, 6z EPS gives hope for some light snows later this week. Good example of how the chaos within the larger longwave flow can easily work against you. 1/4, 1/12.... Even yesterday was an example...we really weren’t far from a big region-wide event. But we had just enough weakness in downstream blocking and of course the antecedent airmass was just bad enough that we got skunked down here while NNE had to go to elevation to see good snows (minus further north into Maine). I still haven’t given up on 1/22 being ok...doesn’t look like it will be the Miller B we hoped for, but still could trend better into maybe an advisory system. But we haven’t caught any of those breaks yet this winter. The one good system we had was locked into place like a week out. We weren’t hoping for some sort of break to get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: All downhill from here. LOL but you know what I was thinking would be interesting ? what if that 00z Jan 26 12 hour 15"-20" scenario verifiied: all told, we would not exactly be terribly off average snow totals for the year. Get another doze like that later on Feb 20 and then again on March 25th, and we would be fine - in fact .. perhaps modestly above normal. No one 'sane' would have any room to complain - right? wah wah waaaaaah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good example of how the chaos within the larger longwave flow can easily work against you. 1/4, 1/12.... Even yesterday was an example...we really weren’t far from a big region-wide event. But we had just enough weakness in downstream blocking and of course the antecedent airmass was just bad enough that we got skunked down here while NNE had to go to elevation to see good snows (minus further north into Maine). I still haven’t given up on 1/22 being ok...doesn’t look like it will be the Miller B we hoped for, but still could trend better into maybe an advisory system. But we haven’t caught any of those breaks yet this winter. The one good system was locked into place like a week out. We weren’t hoping for some sort of break to get it. 6z eps kind of looked interesting. Would do wonders for the soul to get a 2-4” deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: LOL but you know what I was thinking would be interesting ? what if that 00z Jan 26 12 hour 15"-20" scenario verifiied: all told, we would not exactly be terribly off average snow totals for the year. Get another doze like that later on Feb 20 and then again on March 25th, and we would be fine - in fact .. perhaps modestly above normal. No would 'sane' has any room to complain. wah wah waaaaaah Here’s a good mind-bender....BOS/ORH/BDL are all still above average for snowfall to date. Granted, BOS is only 0.3” above normal, so they will fall behind after today, but it still supports your point to an even greater extent than you were making. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Jan 26: the Yawn Awakens? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Here’s a good mind-bender....BOS/ORH/BDL are all still above average for snowfall to date. Granted, BOS is only 0.3” above normal, so they will fall behind after today, but it still supports your point to an even greater extent than you were making. Ya, I mean one warning event and we’re substantially above. Hopefully something can break right for us soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z eps kind of looked interesting. Would do wonders for the soul to get a 2-4” deal. Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here’s a good mind-bender....BOS/ORH/BDL are all still above average for snowfall to date. Granted, BOS is only 0.3” above normal, so they will fall behind after today, but it still supports your point to an even greater extent than you were making. I know ..it's hilarious - I wonder ... the last 20 years ( we've had this conversation before - I'll keep it comparatively brief ...) we have had not only more snow than any other 20 year period probably dating back 300 years of climo ( check that; it just seems so), more importantly: It was also 20 years of constant cinema. The excitement quotient was concomitantly ...exceptionally dosing! Perhaps we are just conditioned to expect more drama now, and that "euphoria" drug we joke about, when opening the models and seeing 8 to 10 isobars closed off over ACK becomes ...almost 'entitled' ? We're talking years bombs and over-achieving SWFE and Katrina's and Maria's and Sumatran subduction thrust events...my god. Hell hath no fury like entitlement "unjustly" unrealized. Lol. Like, the sin of god himself to impose normalcy. just sayn' Afterthought: I realize we may not have actually had more 20-year totals than other 20-year blocks of time in the past... I do know that when it's on, we over-achieved more frequently per features and season. Btw, folks,..that is/was modeled by climate change science - fwiw... A metric was proposed all along by guidance and science therein, that the atmosphere holds more WV in a warming world. Mechanisms that release that WV will increase proficiency ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As soon as it snowed in October the kicking unit was warming up on the sidelines. Exactly. I think it was Will who went through that last year. I warned my snow plowing buds way back then the averages could be against lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Exactly. I think it was Will who went through that last year. I warned my snow plowing buds way back then the averages could be against lots of snow But again, have to remember still, it’s 1/17. Long way to go here. I wouldn’t be spiking any footballs on a below average season on Jan 17th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Sigh. The October snow myth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Sigh. The October snow myth. Ya I’m over that BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 18 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: We flipped the pattern today my man. Baby steps So the NW CT Hills didn't get 6-10"? 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sigh. The October snow myth. Starting to think its December snow that porks winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao I was just gonna say something along those lines. He doesn’t even bother taking the ball period most times. MPM is the baseball player who says he has a perfect batting average until you look at his box score to see he’s 0 for 0 because never steps into the batter’s box...sitting in the dugout scared to hit himself while critiquing those who do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 So, anyway, my take on the the 26th for anyone less guided by resentment and frustration: The 00z GEFs members clearly show the majority as carrying a significant system through the east between the 25th and 27th. In fact, ~ 2/3rd did so on the 12z suite, yesterday, 00z that improved to ~ 8/10. Question? to whom they avail, what is the EPS, PNA index right now ? If it were up to the GEF's PNA alone ( with no over-arching -AO/-NAO ) one might hunch we are heading for a whopper January thaw. ( Ha, did we ever truly freeze ). The teleconnector complex is burying any 26th signal though. Intense -PNA doesn't at first lend too well. I suspect this is a rareness that may materialize out of a rare hemisphere - frankly. It is rare to sustain blocking in a fast, velocity saturated circumstance. The blocking is real. The -AO is antecedent and trended heavily, and is getting that ancillary support from the SSW stuff ( tho I'm a bit about that for other reasons ). Technically, the NAO has not yet manifested on the charts, but is literally doing so today - as this thing is decaying in situ into a quasi 50/50 smear. The forces(ing) that is/has been driving the -AO along, is probably helping to ignite the NAO limb of the total NAO domain space. It's super complex - I'll try to make it brief. I really believe that the -AO from early December through last/this week, was an artifact of the hyper intense ( probably historically so ) +WPO, which by virtue of its depth more so than the polar region z-coordinate heights, caused the EOF calculations to consistently register a negative total AO index value. Math does not 'personalize' these values - it only deals with absolute values of D(z). If there's 150 dm of gradient, an index gets rather large. Doesn't matter 'how' it situates that gradient. In this case, we have a modestly high polar cap heights next to a super-massive, multi-nodal hole in the atmosphere between midriff eastern Asia and Japan! Then, the SSW takes place during; here we are the lag 3 weeks in time, and we see that the SSW is ?propagated? ( so it seems ) down to where it ?might? be coupling with the upper tropopause. This ( rather fascinatingly ) suggests two disparate forcing sources on the AO may describe the total. The former planetary wave mechanical variant ...effectively relays into an era that is SSW driven. Anyway, the -AO is real ...and it probably more so than not parlays a successful -NAO favorably. It's setting up a look that doesn't really lend to idealized structures. The 26th is a squeeze play because of all this. Those GEF members and off and on operational et al or injecting Pacific potency into the field, and then idiosyncratic handling of the western limb of the NAO domain will dictate whether that cuts or shears ... or even maintains enough mechanical presence along 40 N to pull off a narrow conduit Miller B. These are all on the table - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sigh. The October snow myth. mm... that already empirically got torpedoed by December - sorry for the grousers ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now