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2 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

Bouchard hyping the 26th so there's that...

There's something there...

The GEFs individual members are 2/3rds nodding in favor, and we've seen it off and on for three days at this point depending on which cycle/model in question.  So, not consistent but in this regime...  as I've hammered ( and nothing's changed ) predictive skill at even D5 ( let alone 10!) is unusual poor.  In fact I'd almost say it's N/S entirely by D10... The signal fights thru in a symbolic sense ...but there's something too that in terms of numerical presence in the circulation totality.

Still, seeing that many members ... ( and the Euro has some semblance there too...), denies the weight of that assumption of N/S ( no skill)... blah blah..

The 12z GFS was subsume phasing.   Phasing could take place, but at this range and inherent synoptic limitations/predictive faulting ( abv), probably means that the GFS would be right for the wrong reason in this case.   Be that as it may, the Euro lacks an N/ stream ..and backside western NA/ ridge bulge like the 12z GFS.   That ridge drove the N/ stream of the GFS solution S, to meet with the interloping S /stream and the love-making gets going.  But, ... the Euro keeps the flow flow... as does this 18z run too... 

Meanwhile, hemispheric Pro is that we are in a blocking signal that will pervade through that era ..probably into the first week of February.  I agree whomever said that the blocking tendencies may vanquish from extended ranges, but prove premature - these sort of large -scoped planetary drives tend to take geologic time spans to breakdown ( no really geo kidding) ..

That said, retrograde along the 60th parallel ...even if just a tendency, means there is an implied cyclonic rotation wrt the 40N westerlies... that intrinsically favors phasing of subsume variety/or phasing in general. 

Con is the exceptionally fast hemisphere @ and astride the 40th parallel.  It is possible that these intermediate and/or S/waves simply move too fast ... these features bi-pass.   That's sort of what we are seeing as the predominate depiction out there in time..  What needs to happen is the ridge in the west to amp more ( 12z GFS ).  Sometimes you can draw a N /stream wave down purely by lowering resistance ( 'torque attraction' ) as the S /wave lowers heights S of the SPV fragment in wait... and since overarching block exerts, and you don't need to force the N/ stream into action  - these are enough the S /wave is 'harmonic' in the sense that it's not moving by too fast to allow the physics of wave energy synergy  .. But now isn't that time ... when the flow is too fast, you almost can't do it that way..  The western ridge has slow the field down so that the union can take place. 

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's something there...

The GEFs individual members are 2/3rds nodding in favor, and we've seen it off and on for three days at this point depending on which cycle/model in question.  So, not consistent but in this regime...  as I've hammered ( and nothing's changed ) predictive skill at even D5 ( let alone 10!) is unusual poor.  In fact I'd almost say it's N/S entirely by D10... The signal fights thru in a symbolic sense ...but there's something too that in terms of numerical presence in the circulation totality.

Still, seeing that many members ... ( and the Euro has some semblance there too...), denies the weight of that assumption of N/S ( no skill)... blah blah..

The 12z GFS was subsume phasing.   Phasing could take place, but at this range and inherent synoptic limitations/predictive faulting ( abv), probably means that the GFS would be right for the wrong reason in this case.   Be that as it may, the Euro lacks an N/ stream ..and backside western NA/ ridge bulge like the 12z GFS.   That ridge drove the N/ stream of the GFS solution S, to meet with the interloping S /stream and the love-making gets going.  But, ... the Euro keeps the flow flow... as does this 18z run too... 

Meanwhile, hemispheric Pro is that we are in a blocking signal that will pervade through that era ..probably into the first week of February.  I agree whomever said that the blocking tendencies may vanquish from extended ranges, but prove premature - these sort of large -scoped planetary drives tend to take geologic time spans to breakdown ( no really geo kidding) ..

That said, retrograde along the 60th parallel ...even if just a tendency, means there is an implied cyclonic rotation wrt the 40N westerlies... that intrinsically favors phasing of subsume variety/or phasing in general. 

Con is the exceptionally fast hemisphere @ and astride the 40th parallel.  It is possible that these intermediate and/or S/waves simply move too fast ... these features bi-pass.   That's sort of what we are seeing as the predominate depiction out there in time..  What needs to happen is the ridge in the west to amp more ( 12z GFS ).  Sometimes you can draw a N /stream wave down purely by lowering resistance ( 'torque attraction' ) as the S /wave lowers heights S of the SPV fragment in wait... and since overarching block exerts, and you don't need to force the N/ stream into action  - these are enough the S /wave is 'harmonic' in the sense that it's not moving by too fast to allow the physics of wave energy synergy  .. But now isn't that time ... when the flow is too fast, you almost can't do it that way..  The western ridge has slow the field down so that the union can take place. 

Yeah Bouchard said the same thing. :lol:

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