MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Eps has a nice signal for the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS showing the miller B potential on Jan 21-22....they are liking Jan 25-26 too. It looks like the NAO block progresses in a favorable trend for us with the block becoming a bit more West-based. Also looks like the NAO may head towards a more positive state (or less negative around the 25/26) which isn't necessarily a bad thing...especially with a prospective storm around. Looks like the flow may relax a bit too which could open some room for amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Eps has a nice signal for the 26th you're like the person who shows up to the party with 100 pong balls hours after someone already bought some 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, RedSky said: 2020-2021 the Whack-a-mole winter I like it yeah yeah yeah... ha ha ha... 'Whack-a-mole' ...fudge, couldn't remember that when typing - but right. far as I'm concerned, it's the atmospheric modeled equivalent of the Whack-a-mole winter' nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps has a nice signal for the 26th Nice. Just 11 more days. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not to nitpick, but I think the storm you are referring to was 1987. It was 1/2/87. That storm matches your description of both being during SYZGZY and also a 1-2 foot paste bomb back in the 495 belt. I do think you have also mentioned a "little critter" from earlier that winter on several occasions. November 19, 1986 had a fast moving clipper-esque system that redeveloped off NJ and blasted us with 6-10" when the forecast was for only an inch or two. yeah...I recall events vividly, right down to the f'n dendrite counts ... when they happened? not so much lol... Oh I'm usually within like 2 years of nailing the dates! Yeah, but the November 1986 ...honestly, it may not have actually been a bust. Little critter perhaps - It was a flat wave. Man, up at college some year later I found that in the archives... had a 50 v-max, dude. Flat wave potency ftw! ... That wrought thunder snow to Cleveland with 6" of snow in like 20 minutes earlier that afternoon ( not really but you know..). I recall vividly watching Jim Cant'containhimself'glory all excited reporting that around 3:30 pm ... and he was saying that people from southern PA to southern New England should be watching as this potent fast moving disturbance moves through and literally, just then, 'ping ping p'ping-ping, ping ping p'ping-ping' the ticker space pops along the bottom of the screen and, "THE NATION WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ..." scrolls by I mean, kinda yeah...? it was very short notice like that... but they got the watch which should have been a warning really.. in under the wire. The day was actually 50 F with those macro mid level clouds... light or no wind. Pleasant. Didn't really lend to anything like that. But you turn on the TWC, back when it was a solid worthy diversion ( ha! ..although I think it's been better as of late with special programming...), and what the f ! Harv came on the air around 5pm with a winter storm watch and did a cut in for it. He was excited. You could tell. He had his hand splayed as he stepped in a little closer and said, "...But it appears just enough cold air will filter down from Northern New England to potentially flip this to snow overnight, and it may come down quite hard for several hours around or just prior to dawn..." I really remember that pretty close to verbatim. I guess anytime your swimming along in a current and suddenly the current changes...that's technically a bust - ... man that's tough one. lol ... although with only 12 hours to go, I guess that was "kind of" by the modeling standards of that era, ...hard to say. Not like Dec 23 1997 - not THAT is a bust. I mean, I think the official weather forecast accessible on the primitive ( by today's standards ..) web at NWS BOS web site even still read, "...A mix or rain and snow, acculations around an inch. High of 37" You look out the window 8" into it, it's 24 F and you cant see the curb of the road in front of your house! I wonder if that scale and degree of blind-siding is even still possible. Like the storm has to be over before they change the forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Nice. Just 11 more days. ...for now. In 11 days you will be saying the same thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: you're like the person who shows up to the party with 100 pong balls hours after someone already bought some Arresting bad guys with one hand while looking at models on the phone with another...is no easy task. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Arresting bad guys with one hand while looking at models on the phone with another...is no easy task. I'd just hate to be the bad guy when Ant is about to arrest someone at the same time he views the weeklies which show an all out torch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah...I recall events vividly, right down to the f'n dendrite counts ... when they happened? not so much lol... Oh I'm usually within like 2 years of nailing the dates! Yeah, but the November 1986 ...honestly, it may not have actually been a bust. Little critter perhaps - It was a flat wave. Man, up at college some year later I found that in the archives... had a 50 v-max, dude. Flat wave potency ftw! ... That wrought thunder snow to Cleveland with 6" of snow in like 20 minutes earlier that afternoon ( not really but you know..). I recall vividly watching Jim Cant'containhimself'glory all excited reporting that around 3:30 pm ... and he was saying that people from southern PA to southern New England should be watching as this potent fast moving disturbance moves through and literally, just then, 'ping ping ping-ping, ping ping ping-ping' the space pops along the bottom of the screen and it's, "THE NATION WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ..." I mean, kinda yeah...? it was very short notice like that... but they got the watch which should have been a warning really.. in under the wire. The day was actually 50 F with those macro mid level clouds... light or no wind. Pleasant. Didn't really lend to anything like that. But you turn on the TWC, back when it was a solid worth diversion ( ha! ..although I think it's been better as of late with special programming...), and what the f ! Harv came on the air around 5pm with a winter storm watch and did a cut in for it. He was excited. You could tell. He had his hand splayed as he stepped in a little closer and said, "...But it appears just enough cold air will filter down from Northern New England to potentially flip this to snow overnight, and it may come down quite hard for several hours around or just prior to dawn..." I really remember that pretty close to verbatim. I guess anything your swimming along in a current and suddenly the current changes...that's technically a bust - ... man that's tough one. lol ... although with only 12 hours to go, I guess that was "kind of" by the modeling standards of that era, ...hard to say. Heh, you are right about that...when you look at the loop of 11/18 the day before, you can see SNE is kind of straddling the 0C 850 isothemr with little gradient on the sfc plot....so yeah prob that upper 40s to near 50F type calm day that conceals what is merely 18 hours away to the west. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us1118.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah...I recall events vividly, right down to the f'n dendrite counts ... when they happened? not so much lol... Oh I'm usually within like 2 years of nailing the dates! Yeah, but the November 1986 ...honestly, it may not have actually been a bust. Little critter perhaps - It was a flat wave. Man, up at college some year later I found that in the archives... had a 50 v-max, dude. Flat wave potency ftw! ... That wrought thunder snow to Cleveland with 6" of snow in like 20 minutes earlier that afternoon ( not really but you know..). I recall vividly watching Jim Cant'containhimself'glory all excited reporting that around 3:30 pm ... and he was saying that people from southern PA to southern New England should be watching as this potent fast moving disturbance moves through and literally, just then, 'ping ping p'ping-ping, ping ping p'ping-ping' the space pops along the bottom of the screen and it's, "THE NATION WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ..." I mean, kinda yeah...? it was very short notice like that... but they got the watch which should have been a warning really.. in under the wire. The day was actually 50 F with those macro mid level clouds... light or no wind. Pleasant. Didn't really lend to anything like that. But you turn on the TWC, back when it was a solid worthy diversion ( ha! ..although I think it's been better as of late with special programming...), and what the f ! Harv came on the air around 5pm with a winter storm watch and did a cut in for it. He was excited. You could tell. He had his hand splayed as he stepped in a little closer and said, "...But it appears just enough cold air will filter down from Northern New England to potentially flip this to snow overnight, and it may come down quite hard for several hours around or just prior to dawn..." I really remember that pretty close to verbatim. I guess anything your swimming along in a current and suddenly the current changes...that's technically a bust - ... man that's tough one. lol ... although with only 12 hours to go, I guess that was "kind of" by the modeling standards of that era, ...hard to say. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It looks like the NAO block progresses in a favorable trend for us with the block becoming a bit more West-based. Also looks like the NAO may head towards a more positive state (or less negative around the 25/26) which isn't necessarily a bad thing...especially with a prospective storm around. Looks like the flow may relax a bit too which could open some room for amplification Block definitely seem to start breaking down around 1/25-1/26 which could perhaps lend to something larger....NAO doesn't totally go positive in the days following that, there is still a lot of weakness up in the Davis Strait, but the actual mega block is gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 I know full well the risks, and I won't go back on this....but this is a pattern moving forward that I will go to war with. N stream dominant-late bloomers. Figured to get a pattern like this in a la nina with a neg NAO, and its finally here. Not perfect with neg PNA, but it can still work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'd just hate to be the bad guy when Ant is about to arrest someone at the same time he views the weeklies which show an all out torch Police brutality... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Block definitely seem to start breaking down around 1/25-1/26 which could perhaps lend to something larger....NAO doesn't totally go positive in the days following that, there is still a lot of weakness up in the Davis Strait, but the actual mega block is gone by then. I'm kinda glad the mega block is breaking down. They can certainly help us but they can also royally screw us. You almost need to have an active pattern with hits right when the mega block develops and you can just kinda ride that train (like we have with some of the mega blocks in the past) but if you end up with a major block and it's not producing right away...chances are it won't. Like Ray said just below your post...we can certainly ride with what is being projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I'm kinda glad the mega block is breaking down. They can certainly help us but they can also royally screw us. You almost need to have an active pattern with hits right when the mega block develops and you can just kinda ride that train (like we have with some of the mega blocks in the past) but if you end up with a major block and it's not producing right away...chances are it won't. Like Ray said just below your post...we can certainly ride with what is being projected. Yea. We don’t need huge anomalies there. Just enough so there isn’t a black hole there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Block definitely seem to start breaking down around 1/25-1/26 which could perhaps lend to something larger....NAO doesn't totally go positive in the days following that, there is still a lot of weakness up in the Davis Strait, but the actual mega block is gone by then. Not to start an SSW rage again .. but, it's not even clear if this event the world has been tracking is even part of this suppression in the polarward indexes. I mean, the AO was negative big time all along...and looks to remain that way through week two. We should be a week away from the AO dropping like anchor from the SSW ... if going by climo inference on the causal/correlated lags ... but if it's already negative like this... Seems it's a wash? right - The other thing, this -AO is sort of inordinately constructed to me. Just looking/eye-balling the coarser layout at PSU for the D7-10 means... only until very recently did this AO appear more evenly distributed. Prior, the +WPO was so exotic it was like lying about the AO being negative by virtue of its own monstrosity in height chasm over the N. sea of Japan. weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 So many of us in SNE should wake up to snow OTG Sunday morning with some 1” amounts and a bit more in spots. Then a couple 1-4” events next week. Better than what we’ve had since Dec 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm kinda glad the mega block is breaking down. They can certainly help us but they can also royally screw us. You almost need to have an active pattern with hits right when the mega block develops and you can just kinda ride that train (like we have with some of the mega blocks in the past) but if you end up with a major block and it's not producing right away...chances are it won't. Like Ray said just below your post...we can certainly ride with what is being projected. well... folks - not you per se ... in general - probably need reminding that static patterns don't typically deliver bigger/satisfying events and 'cinema' therein. you need mass fields to be disrupted, and as the new signal passes through a domain, there's a correction events. Some times even subtle perturbations in the field will trigger, too - doesn't have to be a huge 4 SD jolt either. But unchanging patterns find equilibrium - that's just physics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So many of us in SNE should wake up to snow OTG Sunday morning with some 1” amounts and a bit more in spots. Then a couple 1-4” events next week. Better than what we’ve had since Dec 17th I’ll be happy to have flakes in the air this weekend at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Jeez that was the EPS run we've been waiting for. The heights out west trended higher, which may have given the Miller B look on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jeez that was the EPS run we've been waiting for. The heights out west trended higher, which may have given the Miller B look on this run. Retro that trough offshore of the PAC NW for 1/25....pops that little rockies ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to start an SSW rage again .. but, it's not even clear if this event the world has been tracking is even part of this suppression in the polarward indexes. I mean, the AO was negative big time all along...and looks to remain that way through week two. We should be a week away from the AO dropping like anchor from the SSW ... if going by climo inference on the causal/correlated lags ... but if it's already negative like this... Seems it's a wash? right - The other thing, this -AO is sort of inordinately constructed to me. Just looking/eye-balling the coarser layout at PSU for the D7-10 means... only until very recently did this AO appear more evenly distributed. Prior, the +WPO was so exotic it was like lying about the AO being negative by virtue of its own monstrosity in height chasm over the N. sea of Japan. weird Do you happen to know when the SSW became official? I'm guessing this was too early for it to really have an influence but the AO took a sharp plunge right around Christmas time...I think this is really before the SSW was taking shape, no? Heck...maybe this SSW event really only caused a disruption of the SPV and there was very little coupling between the stratosphere-troposphere? Heck, maybe the way the northern hemisphere was configured prior to the SSW vastly enhanced the screw job we've endured...seems like the SSW/pre-pattern has been much more favorable on the other side of the hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Throttlemonkey Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: Our lake house is just on the fringe of tug hill weather. May get close to a foot there over the next few days. Where? We are in Salisbury, hoping to get a little snowmobiling in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Haha, this afternoon everyone is lurching toward the optimistic side of the boat! I'm gonna get sea sick, or we're gonna capsize! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Haha, this afternoon everyone is lurching toward the optimistic side of the boat! I'm gonna get sea sick, or we're gonna capsize! People just want snow, myself included. I get it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 free yourselves from your ptype prisons 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I want a Jan 16 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Retro that trough offshore of the PAC NW for 1/25....pops that little rockies ridge. Those are the little breaks that yield a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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