Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So much worry and consternation from posters today. Hate it And it baffles the mind for me - It is coherent and obvious that there is an utter lack of deterministic/forecast verification value inherent in this chaotic and weird pattern anomaly ( an anomaly that is really Hemispheric/planetary in scale frankly - ) ... Yet, the new run comes out = consternation ? Y'allz be persecutin' yo asses 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: And it baffles the mind for me - It is coherent and obvious that there is an utter lack of deterministic/forecast verification value inherent in this chaotic and weird pattern anomaly ( that is really Hemispheric/planetary in scale frankly - ) ... Yet, the new run comes out = consternation - People want snow...we have no idea if it will snow and won't for a while=consternation. Is it that complicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LES stream on roids into Windsor Locks? Streaming right into my fanny 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm not likely very factorable - never zero, of course... but just not weighted heavily enough to be substantial in the integration of all forces guiding the outcomes .. Like, the last 2,000 years of isolated fossil fuel profligate consumption in combustion and the conversion of it's exhaust into atmospheric gaseous and aerosol fluxing - now THAT is a major player ... I think though the s/w or low has to like directly pass over one of the Lakes, no? I remember we had a few clippers that went over the Lakes perfectly and it aided quite a bit in moisture availability. There was one...I think late 2000's I think this was a huge factor and we ended up getting smoked. 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s been rare lately for a big lake freeze. We’re heading to Chicago today...should get there by tomorrow evening. Looks wintry there as well for the next few weeks. I hope so for your sake! But I think I actually saw a tweet last night...the percentage of lakes frozen over (Great Lakes) and snow depth across the country is very abnormally low. The snow depth map was putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Clipper pattern on the GFS next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Streaming right into my fanny I think though the s/w or low has to like directly pass over one of the Lakes, no? I remember we had a few clippers that went over the Lakes perfectly and it aided quite a bit in moisture availability. There was one...I think late 2000's I think this was a huge factor and we ended up getting smoked. I hope so for your sake! But I think I actually saw a tweet last night...the percentage of lakes frozen over (Great Lakes) and snow depth across the country is very abnormally low. The snow depth map was putrid. Never heard of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Clipper pattern on the GFS next week. Yea, still lame as hell holding that energy back. Zzzzzzzzzzz run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, still lame as hell holding that energy back. Zzzzzzzzzzz run Blocking is way too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Blocking is way too strong The problem is not the blocking...its that energy staying over SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The SW energy will pork the 20th just by existing, then the 23rd by not ejecting lol Could be the Chris Davis pattern unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The problem is not the blocking...its that energy staying over SW. blocking it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: blocking it lol N stream energy traverses the country just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 There’s a real chance of no snow next week . Probably 50/50. Until you can see the whites of its eyes.. can’t get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Never heard of that. I'm pretty certain it is a thing. I think though it goes unnoticed because our greatest moisture sources are obviously the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, but in situations where you get a system traversing over one of the Great Lakes...it could certainly supply it with a "moisture boost". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People want snow...we have no idea if it will snow and won't for a whole=consternation. Is it that complicated? mm... If it were all just about 'snow' ? Of course it wouldn't be complicated. It's more than that - it's missing an endorphin fix - sorry. Absolutely it is.. Similar to that psychotropic e-addiction expose' 60 minutes did earlier last year, where there's a smoldering epidemic in how modernity/technology's influenced humanity. And it was done deliberately by the earlier Internet sciences.. Fascinating story and how you can see evidences it everywhere ... 'blue light' pop and art drives reaction, which is satisfactorily addictive. The flavor of all that, in this social media, is the 'rush' from a big storm depiction in the models, and the cinema of it therein - Snow is hoped? absolutely...of course dude. That evades what is probably more "problematic" - although there are worse concerns facing the world, true LOL - about this yo-yoing psycho-babble bs that goes on based on a single output cycles like that which is undeniable for those of us who have long years of experience. I mean of course winter and the underpinning interests therein are certainly integral in that... But it's patently obvious, there's more than just 'snow' about the whole 'drug' when exposure to guidance when things are parlaying more dystopic - beating a dead horse. Forget all that ... even if one's sole and singular intent for this is snow snow snow...? It doesn't invalidate the point: there's no reason to = consternation over model runs and allowing a single positive return guide elation, vs a negative cycle output guiding one to despair. That is not a healthy preoccupation - I don't care what anyone says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm pretty certain it is a thing. I think though it goes unnoticed because our greatest moisture sources are obviously the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, but in situations where you get a system traversing over one of the Great Lakes...it could certainly supply it with a "moisture boost". Sounds like chapter 3 in Awakening Dawn: The Lakes are Hungry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking is way too strong Not really. Southern energy keeps digging into the SW as the northern stream swings thru. You can see clearly when you loop h5 height/dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: N stream energy traverses the country just fine. was joking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... If it were all just about 'snow' ? Of course it wouldn't be complicated. It's more than that - it's missing an endorphin fix - sorry. Absolutely it is.. Similar to that psychotropic e-addiction expose' 60 minutes did earlier last year, where there's a smoldering epidemic in how modernity/technology's influenced humanity. And it was done deliberately by the earlier Internet sciences.. Fascinating story and how you can see evidences it everywhere ... 'blue light' pop and art drives reaction, which is satisfactorily addictive. The flavor of all that, in this social media, is the 'rush' from a big storm depiction in the models, and the cinema of it therein - Snow is hoped? absolutely...of course dude. That evades what is probably more "problematic" - although there are worse concerns facing the world, true LOL - about this yo-yoing psycho-babble bs that goes on based on a single output cycles like that which is undeniable for those of us who have long years of experience. I mean of course winter and the underpinning interests therein are certainly integral in that... But it's patently obvious, there's more than just 'snow' about the whole 'drug' when exposure to guidance when things are parlaying more dystopic - beating a dead horse. I loved snow before social media and model output, but of course you get excited when you see a BECS on the models, if you don't you should go see a Dr. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 God, I hope it snows next week.....or else post content will be relegated to a blend of endless bitching, and Tip telling us how we need snow because we didn't suck mom's tit long enough as infants. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sounds like chapter 3 in Awakening Dawn: The Lakes are Hungry "I was relaxing in my hammock at my newly purchased home on the Tug hill Plateau. All of a sudden the sky became filled with a blanket of white and dry clouds. Boom, it was puking snow like I had never seen. Before I could escape the hammock the snow was up to my knees. I ran inside to my computer, threw up the GFS, and saw this monster shortwave traversing Lake Eerie. Lake Eerie was NOT frozen, the delta T was through the roof. This lake was giving this monster shortwave a great meal of moisture and it was dumping it's load on me". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 If one week from today we are looking out our collective windows at green (not brown this winter for some reason) grass , I think most folks are going to pack it in and move onto things that make them happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... If it were all just about 'snow' ? Of course it wouldn't be complicated. It's more than that - it's missing an endorphin fix - sorry. Absolutely it is.. Similar to that psychotropic e-addiction expose' 60 minutes did earlier last year, where there's a smoldering epidemic in how modernity/technology's influenced humanity. And it was done deliberately by the earlier Internet sciences.. Fascinating story and how you can see evidences it everywhere ... 'blue light' pop and art drives reaction, which is satisfactorily addictive. The flavor of all that, in this social media, is the 'rush' from a big storm depiction in the models, and the cinema of it therein - Snow is hoped? absolutely...of course dude. That evades what is probably more "problematic" - although there are worse concerns facing the world, true LOL - about this yo-yoing psycho-babble bs that goes on based on a single output cycles like that which is undeniable for those of us who have long years of experience. I mean of course winter and the underpinning interests therein are certainly integral in that... But it's patently obvious, there's more than just 'snow' about the whole 'drug' when exposure to guidance when things are parlaying more dystopic - beating a dead horse. Forget all that ... even if one's sole and singular intent for this is snow snow snow...? It doesn't invalidate the point: there's no reason to = consternation over model runs and allowing a single positive return guide elation, vs a negative cycle output guiding one to despair. That is not a healthy preoccupation - I don't care what anyone says. Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Heh... Tip is Hannibal Lecter to dead horses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: If one week from today we are looking out our collective windows at green (not brown this winter for some reason) grass , I think most folks are going to pack it in and move onto things that make them happy Regardless if there is snow or no snow shouldn't people already be doing things that they enjoy doing? I'm not going to dwell on the weather because I have no control over the weather. I'd much prefer it to be a cold and snowy winter but it has not been. I had very low expectations for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a real chance of no snow next week . Probably 50/50. Until you can see the whites of its eyes.. can’t get excited Snow showers next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 TPV shreds and squashes every storm on the 12z runs. We are left with a cold and dry pattern with snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Golden showers next week In the cruiser or out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Snow showers next week Will doesn’t like this , but persistence wins until proven otherwise . Seem appropriate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: TPV shreds and squashes every storm on the 12z runs. We are left with a cold and dry pattern with snow showers. Not sure I'd use "cold" to describe the pattern. It's more like moderated junk or just meh. Outside of some brief cold shots there doesn't look to be any true cold and certainly nothing sustaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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