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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Worry anyway... as in 'already,' if one is concerned with determinism and accuracy. 

I hit on this hard the last couple of days - not sinking in?   ( not you per se but to the general audience in here...)

"- its probably a red herring anyway. I think that error is going to be ginormous in that time frame.  We're probably going to be looking a different cinema at different time intervals on every run... "

That's one rendition of the same sentiment peppered throughout a couple pages back in the aught-teens of this thread's century - which... anyone want to start a new January part dieux ??  

But ... people don't seem to allow good advice in here ...actually modulate their thinking LOL   

In this case, not having believe any storm set up beyond 4 days at all would have been the appropriate recourse imho - so much so that it even ( technically ...) should preclude even worry.  As in, there was nothing to invest in.  It's like the pattern and reality of it is trying to change people's hobbies and drive them away from this engagement because the purpose of being here ... the cinema joy circuitry shit ?   Cannot be achieved at all - zero ability to get y'all to those highs.   Unless one is moved by delusion - okay.

All I mean is its fruitless at this lead because of exactly what you are alluding to about guidance struggling.

Agree.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We appreciate your honesty but you would be a brutal kid to play with at the playground. Remember what Elmo said and try to pass it on to your children...sharing is caring. 

That would make sense if we were referring to me sharing a cup cake on the playground, when we were both late to lunch. I'm not going to pretend to have the desire to share a damn shortwave lol

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Just now, 512high said:

If we can't get a storm to produce by next weekend, shut this thread down! Gosh!!! we will have 200 pages of what ifs and could haves

Congrats North country,

i think most of the talk has been leading to the 2H of January,  now we need the non-luck related random events of the atmosphere to play nice.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I mean is its fruitless at this lead because of exactly what you are alluding to about guidance struggling.

Agree.

I'm almost wondering ... heh, could this whole white-noise disarray of incalculable shit dapplet destinations, spraying upon the cromakeys of computer enhanced hellucination ...  might have something pop with only three days notice ? 

I mean hell... lack of foresight does mean lack of crap happening - it just mean the 'super agency' that runs the cosmic lubing is coming at us in the dark.  I'm being double dirty entendre'  here..

Seriously, look at the 00z GFS operational run.  No interest in that Euro run, that the Euro had on its 12z depiction ... for the 22nd.  Meanwhile, the 00z Euro, also completely fowl swooped it off the charts like falcon of misfortune upon the fragility of trying to manage anything at all on D9 in this godforsaken maelstrom.  And while all that is happening ...?  Curiously, that same GFS run sneaks one of those rarer ALB-Logan transit narrow cyclogenesis scenarios and brings snow for the 20th...    The 20th?  Never was in the previous deck of cards - 

So, ...the 06z is less interested... par for the course.  Really what is going on is that the occupation/engagement in here, in so far as satisfying the 'fun' of model cycle released products is specifically and singularly being diminished.  But there could still be stuff precipitating out of a hurried, highly complex ( too much so for guidance it is proving...) hemisphere.   Short notice may be the way to go... 

Lord, would I love to see unfold a top 10 historical bomb with only like 54 hours notice,  during modern conceit of technology - ho man... This may be a dream pattern come true for that sort of weird fetish

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm almost wondering ... heh, could this whole white-noise disarray of incalculable shit dapplet destinations, spraying upon the cromakeys of computer enhanced hellucination ...  might have something pop with only three days notice ? 

I mean hell... lack of foresight does mean lack of crap happening - it just mean the 'super agency' that runs the cosmic lubing is coming at us in the dark.  I'm being double dirty entendre'  here..

Seriously, look at the 00z GFS operational run.  No interest in that Euro run, that the Euro had on its 12z depiction ... for the 22nd.  Meanwhile, the 00z Euro, also completely fowl swooped it off the charts like falcon of misfortune upon the fragility of trying to manage anything at all on D9 in this godforsaken maelstrom.  And while all that is happening ...?  Curiously, that same GFS run sneaks one of those rarer ALB-Logan transit narrow cyclogenesis scenarios and brings snow for the 20th...    The 20th?  Never was in the previous deck of cards - 

So, ...the 06z is less interested... par for the course.  Really what is going on is that the occupation/engagement in here, in so far as satisfying the 'fun' of model cycle released products is specifically and singularly being diminished.  But there could still be stuff precipitating out of a hurried, highly complex ( too much so for guidance it is proving...) hemisphere.   Short notice may be the way to go... 

Lord, would I love to see unfold a top 10 historical bomb with only like 54 hours notice,  during modern conceit of technology - ho man... This may be a dream pattern come true for that sort of weird fetish

Heh...that's kind of what happened in the 1/26-27/15 blizzard. Thing was cooked and in Bermuda at 72h lead.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm almost wondering ... heh, could this whole white-noise disarray of incalculable shit dapplet destinations, spraying upon the cromakeys of computer enhanced hellucination ...  might have something pop with only three days notice ? 

I mean hell... lack of foresight does mean lack of crap happening - it just mean the 'super agency' that runs the cosmic lubing is coming at us in the dark.  I'm being double dirty entendre'  here..

Seriously, look at the 00z GFS operational run.  No interest in that Euro run, that the Euro had on its 12z depiction ... for the 22nd.  Meanwhile, the 00z Euro, also completely fowl swooped it off the charts like falcon of misfortune upon the fragility of trying to manage anything at all on D9 in this godforsaken maelstrom.  And while all that is happening ...?  Curiously, that same GFS run sneaks one of those rarer ALB-Logan transit narrow cyclogenesis scenarios and brings snow for the 20th...    The 20th?  Never was in the previous deck of cards - 

So, ...the 06z is less interested... par for the course.  Really what is going on is that the occupation/engagement in here, in so far as satisfying the 'fun' of model cycle released products is specifically and singularly being diminished.  But there could still be stuff precipitating out of a hurried, highly complex ( too much so for guidance it is proving...) hemisphere.   Short notice may be the way to go... 

Lord, would I love to see unfold a top 10 historical bomb with only like 54 hours notice,  during modern conceit of technology - ho man... This may be a dream pattern come true for that sort of weird fetish

That is what I have been asserting once it became apparent that we were entering into this pattern...N stream dominant regimes offer large impacts at relatively short leads.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is not the NNE thread, its the January thread.

So sad to see you so confused and disoriented....hate to see that, but happens to all of us, at some point.

Hating on others cuz they get snow and you don't is as juvenile as it gets , but to each his own. Enjoy the rain it's the only rain you got

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