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January 2021


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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro develops a legit Davis Strait block in clown range around 1/7. We'll see if that can help keep things underneath us until the PAC improves. We will need it so hopefully it has the right idea.

You know ... if you glide your mouse over the 20 some odd members of the GEFs ... you can ' kind of tell ' how they want to build the actual Z depth height structure...but for some reason, most ( but not all..) settle for 'COL' ( or absence of pattern at all ..) ...

That gives the allusion if you will, of a 'placeholder' ?  Kind of like on stand-by in case they need to build one lol...

I don't know...this last 10 years of management up there over that surface area of the Globe is intriguingly ill-performed and problematic if you ask me.   The Pacific should be where the research is focused... sure, as the primary cold and S/W ejecta loading pattern(s) obviously begin there... But, when the flow is fast between Hawai'i and California ..then slows nearing the OV at mid latitudes over N/A ...I have come to find that precedes the N. Atlantic ridging - not sure if that's also useful up in the NAO domain ( D. Str. and Greenland and so forth...) but I bet there's a larger wave mechanical/Rosby argument for that.  hm ...and once it is there.. .that "backwardly" fold the flow ...blah blah. 

Anyway, the flow has been fast - gee ya tink... - along said axis so ...

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not to dig into this, but if you have a big Bering Sea trough, forget it. You want the lower height anomalies more near or especially south of Aleutians. Can even have a GOAK trough. 

Ideally yes. The near record cyclone that blasts in there this week is a killer. But I’m referencing where the vortex has been centered most of winter so far and where long range guidance suggests it pulls back to after the next 10-12 days.  We can do ok with lower heights near the Bering so long as a massive vortex isn’t centered there. 
 

the look mid January across guidance right now is pretty close to the composite of our biggest snow years and some of our big dog storms.  But if you’re talking about why it’s warm the next 12 days or so yes!  I was looking ahead.  Btw miss your input in the mid Atlantic thread. Please pop in when we have a threat worth talking about. 
2D65D87D-CE41-46CC-B39A-51F17417A94E.png.c49e0327411507efdef9d5f4ab3a9a43.png

BAC4F5C0-3957-47DC-BD28-D2F1C8402D26.thumb.png.f69acdb6e65d2e8b4f59bcbd187955fe.png

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That GGEM run actually has three distinct Pac impulse rippling along in succession right out to the end of the run.  Any one of those could do it ...

It's an interesting look by the Euro, GGEM .. .the flow is 'relaxed' in the sense of height gradient - so the velocity saturation is alleviating for a change!  Yet, the wave spaces them selves remain in a rapid progression..  It's an odd behavior..

That Euro block looks dubious up there...  It almost looks like a 'latent heat landfill'  ... The whole region between NF and England is like the land the atmospheric patternization forgot...  So, It's formulating a soft gradient NAO black out of western Atlantic cyclongen exhaust.. mm okay... think about that. you go 564 to 570 dm height node with only three standard isohypses surrounding it before we find any kind of nadir ...that's a little dubious for a core winter month. 

It just seems everything is 'what the f' these days - man

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ideally yes. The near record cyclone that blasts in there this week is a killer. But I’m referencing where the vortex has been centered most of winter so far and where long range guidance suggests it pulls back to after the next 10-12 days.  We can do ok with lower heights near the Bering so long as a massive vortex isn’t centered there. 
 

the look mid January across guidance right now is pretty close to the composite of our biggest snow years and some of our big dog storms.  But if you’re talking about why it’s warm the next 12 days or so yes!  I was looking ahead.  Btw miss your input in the mid Atlantic thread. Please pop in when we have a threat worth talking about. 
2D65D87D-CE41-46CC-B39A-51F17417A94E.png.c49e0327411507efdef9d5f4ab3a9a43.png

BAC4F5C0-3957-47DC-BD28-D2F1C8402D26.thumb.png.f69acdb6e65d2e8b4f59bcbd187955fe.png

Yeah you can see on that composite it’s mostly south. That’s all I mean. Also, you’d need a massive west -NAO with that or else you’d be toast. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you can see on that composite it’s mostly south. That’s all I mean. Also, you’d need a massive west -NAO with that or else you’d be toast. 

Oh yea but I’m sort of hoping we pull that card. I said back in the fall I expected this winter to be pretty awful and the only thing I saw that could save us was if we got blocking. I still feel that way.  For my area. You have a lot more ways to make things work up here.  I’m just pointing out “if” we do get a west -NAO regime the general pac look we’ve had and look to have can work out. Lots of ifs and buts in there though. 

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heh...devil's in the details on those ending Euro frames..   yuck -...

It's raining in NF on a long shore easterly beach eroder flow, with a low pinned under that block,

                                                                                       ... in January

Meanwhile, late March 850 mb thermal tapestry for every S of 50 N everywhere... 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Put a snowstorm on the models and it’s amazing how fast the vibe changes in here...

Scooter went from farting in everyone’s face this morning to posting about snowstorms in mid Atlantic. Absolutely stunning turn of events in a few short hours. Antonio Davis to Paul Kocin ... in the blink of an eye.

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