Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I have to admit, that would send Kevin on an MLK-2010 style melt Lol 5 days left in the period...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Ray mini melting right on time to crush him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Look at the 12+ over scooters house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even if the 4th happens it’s a Morch type snow and starts melting 20 minutes before ending Nope and its plenty cold after 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Look at the 12+ over scooters house... Oh how we pray. I mean he won't see it as his shades will be closed but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Look at the 12+ over scooters house... Probably way out in left field, but this sort of feels like 1/23?/2015...the Sat 6” appetizer before the big show a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Euro develops a legit Davis Strait block in clown range around 1/7. We'll see if that can help keep things underneath us until the PAC improves. We will need it so hopefully it has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Massive block on the Euro in the long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Look at the 12+ over scooters house... I would be po'd to the extreme if it went down like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Yeah that’s a block. Big pokey ridge into Davis Straits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Tip, lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Decent signal on the EPS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Decent signal on the EPS too. Tick tock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro develops a legit Davis Strait block in clown range around 1/7. We'll see if that can help keep things underneath us until the PAC improves. We will need it so hopefully it has the right idea. You know ... if you glide your mouse over the 20 some odd members of the GEFs ... you can ' kind of tell ' how they want to build the actual Z depth height structure...but for some reason, most ( but not all..) settle for 'COL' ( or absence of pattern at all ..) ... That gives the allusion if you will, of a 'placeholder' ? Kind of like on stand-by in case they need to build one lol... I don't know...this last 10 years of management up there over that surface area of the Globe is intriguingly ill-performed and problematic if you ask me. The Pacific should be where the research is focused... sure, as the primary cold and S/W ejecta loading pattern(s) obviously begin there... But, when the flow is fast between Hawai'i and California ..then slows nearing the OV at mid latitudes over N/A ...I have come to find that precedes the N. Atlantic ridging - not sure if that's also useful up in the NAO domain ( D. Str. and Greenland and so forth...) but I bet there's a larger wave mechanical/Rosby argument for that. hm ...and once it is there.. .that "backwardly" fold the flow ...blah blah. Anyway, the flow has been fast - gee ya tink... - along said axis so ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Tick tock Shades open squinting in between blinds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would be po'd to the extreme if it went down like that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shades open squinting in between blinds? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not to dig into this, but if you have a big Bering Sea trough, forget it. You want the lower height anomalies more near or especially south of Aleutians. Can even have a GOAK trough. Ideally yes. The near record cyclone that blasts in there this week is a killer. But I’m referencing where the vortex has been centered most of winter so far and where long range guidance suggests it pulls back to after the next 10-12 days. We can do ok with lower heights near the Bering so long as a massive vortex isn’t centered there. the look mid January across guidance right now is pretty close to the composite of our biggest snow years and some of our big dog storms. But if you’re talking about why it’s warm the next 12 days or so yes! I was looking ahead. Btw miss your input in the mid Atlantic thread. Please pop in when we have a threat worth talking about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shades open squinting in between blinds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 That GGEM run actually has three distinct Pac impulse rippling along in succession right out to the end of the run. Any one of those could do it ... It's an interesting look by the Euro, GGEM .. .the flow is 'relaxed' in the sense of height gradient - so the velocity saturation is alleviating for a change! Yet, the wave spaces them selves remain in a rapid progression.. It's an odd behavior.. That Euro block looks dubious up there... It almost looks like a 'latent heat landfill' ... The whole region between NF and England is like the land the atmospheric patternization forgot... So, It's formulating a soft gradient NAO black out of western Atlantic cyclongen exhaust.. mm okay... think about that. you go 564 to 570 dm height node with only three standard isohypses surrounding it before we find any kind of nadir ...that's a little dubious for a core winter month. It just seems everything is 'what the f' these days - man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ideally yes. The near record cyclone that blasts in there this week is a killer. But I’m referencing where the vortex has been centered most of winter so far and where long range guidance suggests it pulls back to after the next 10-12 days. We can do ok with lower heights near the Bering so long as a massive vortex isn’t centered there. the look mid January across guidance right now is pretty close to the composite of our biggest snow years and some of our big dog storms. But if you’re talking about why it’s warm the next 12 days or so yes! I was looking ahead. Btw miss your input in the mid Atlantic thread. Please pop in when we have a threat worth talking about. Yeah you can see on that composite it’s mostly south. That’s all I mean. Also, you’d need a massive west -NAO with that or else you’d be toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Time to hover around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah you can see on that composite it’s mostly south. That’s all I mean. Also, you’d need a massive west -NAO with that or else you’d be toast. Oh yea but I’m sort of hoping we pull that card. I said back in the fall I expected this winter to be pretty awful and the only thing I saw that could save us was if we got blocking. I still feel that way. For my area. You have a lot more ways to make things work up here. I’m just pointing out “if” we do get a west -NAO regime the general pac look we’ve had and look to have can work out. Lots of ifs and buts in there though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 heh...devil's in the details on those ending Euro frames.. yuck -... It's raining in NF on a long shore easterly beach eroder flow, with a low pinned under that block, ... in January Meanwhile, late March 850 mb thermal tapestry for every S of 50 N everywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Put a snowstorm on the models and it’s amazing how fast the vibe changes in here... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 it looks like the Major SSW is trying to couple with the 500mb pattern as it improves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Put a snowstorm on the models and it’s amazing how fast the vibe changes in here... Scooter went from farting in everyone’s face this morning to posting about snowstorms in mid Atlantic. Absolutely stunning turn of events in a few short hours. Antonio Davis to Paul Kocin ... in the blink of an eye. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would be po'd to the extreme if it went down like that Expect it man. our time comes later in the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, leo2000 said: it looks like the Major SSW is trying to couple with the 500mb pattern as it improves. Where is this warming event being observed - what source. How is it being defined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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