January 2021

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Euro Op looks like December 1-3 last year.

Yea, that and 3-5-01 entered my mind...

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I wish we could get +7 departures and no precip for a month in the summer. 

Harder than one might think.  Neither BOS, BDL or the local co-op has recorded even a 6° departure (pos or neg) during met summer.  

P&C has 1-2 for me and 2-4 just 6 miles to my west.  Either one is more than what things looked like 24 hours ago.  Checked for GYX discussion 15 minutes ago and last update was before 11 AM - must be pondering the mess big time.  

Edit: Finally posted the update at 4:52.  Some fine (elevational) lines between nada and birch bender.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks good for Pete, Close to Hippy too.

Found the HREF link. It absolutely nailed Dec .

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/href_v2awips/18/main_conus.php

[HoarfrostHubb]

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Euro Op looks like December 1-3 last year.

I approve of this message

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that and 3-5-01 entered my mind...

Giddy up 

[HoarfrostHubb]

From Will in 2011

Here is my detailed recount of the March 4-6, 2001debacle. 

There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit. 

The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward. 

A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO. 

After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN.

Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z.

By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms. 

When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line. 

The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point. 

That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine. 

That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow. 

Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and models.

[MaineJayhawk]

42 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Models have been hitting there and the berks and not a mention of it for several runs..........lol

Probably why

[GCWarrior]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Will in 2011

 

Here is my detailed recount of the March 4-6, 2001debacle. 

There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit. 

The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward. 

A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO. 

After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN.

Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z.

By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms. 

When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line. 

The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point. 

That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine. 

That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow. 

Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and models.

Just read that when I searched for the storm on google!  

That may have been the greatest winter ever!  The early February storm was very impressive as well!

[Damage In Tolland]

LFG!!

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I approve of this message

I second that.  18.5 down here in the valley. 

[Ginx snewx]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Clown maps are embellishing IMO.

 

[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was a storm exactly like that a few years ago. Models had it and Mets called all rain . I remember places like Goshen to Colebrook ended up getting like 3-6. Don’t remember what year

There might be 3 ppl who care. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There might be 3 ppl who care. 

City folk

[KoalaBeer]

20 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Probably why

Funny map, but calling Lawrence MA the Midwest is the funniest thing I’ve ever heard haha. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

City folk

He has been angry and close to unreadable on here since early month. Brutal 

[MJO812]

Gfs and Para have waves after waves and very cold  in the long range.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Clown maps are embellishing IMO.

I think if some have elevation, They could see snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and Para have waves after waves and very cold  in the long range.

Waves of these on you

https://i.imgur.com/joZr3qX.gifv

[ORH_wxman]

A lot of guidance has the midlevels too warm out in the Berkshires and NW CT. So you have to reconcile that difference before going gung ho. It’s not a situation where one model is like 0C and another is +1C at 925 with 850s of -2C. It’s legit like 850 temps being +2 on some guidance and near 0C on others. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of guidance has the midlevels too warm out in the Berkshires and NW CT. So you have to reconcile that difference before going gung ho. It’s not a situation where one model is like 0C and another is +1C at 925 with 850s of -2C. It’s legit like 850 temps being +2 on some guidance and near 0C on others. 

Tomorrow's HREF should have a good grasp

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

City folk

Coastal dwellers.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He has been angry and close to unreadable on here since early month. Brutal 

You hate to see it really.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You hate to see it really.

You just feel bad for the family . You know if it’s this bad here, how bad it must be in person. Don’t like when this happens to good families. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You just feel bad for the family . You know if it’s this bad here, how bad it must be in person. Don’t like when this happens to good families. 

The boy probably bearing the brunt of it too when the wife's not looking.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The boy probably bearing the brunt of it too when the wife's not looking.

Hopefully it doesn’t get as bad as Mothman did on Xmas and start attacking innocent folks on sacred holidays. That’s when you know things have spiraled out of control. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully it doesn’t get as bad as Mothman did on Xmas and start attacking innocent folks on sacred holidays. That’s when you know things have spiraled out of control. 

Around the same time the pope had a bad episode too, It must of been some tainted holy water.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Around the same time the pope had a bad episode too, It must of been some tainted holy water.

When his wife logged onto his phone and saw he had over 200,000 posts on here, that was the final straw 

[greenmtnwx]

Will any thoughts on this system here in S VT? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good stuff lol. 

[78Blizzard]

The 18z GFS and Para couldn't be further apart at h5.  Model chaos.