512high Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 You know Ray, You ,Scott are saying FEB looks serviceable , great! But crap, that's weeks out , we are all waiting for the "change in January " and I know, it got pushed back, It would be awesome if the next few weeks and beyond deliver, I just keep getting sucked back in, and then pissed off(lol) hope your right...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, 512high said: You know Ray, You ,Scott are saying FEB looks serviceable , great! But crap, that's weeks out , we are all waiting for the "change in January " and I know, it got pushed back, It would be awesome if the next few weeks and beyond deliver, I just keep getting sucked back in, and then pissed off(lol) hope your right...... I think the NAO holding into at least the first week of Feb is probably a pretty good bet. Not sure about PD, but.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been ready since Labor Day. Good. Then you’re prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I wish we could get +7 departures and no precip for a month in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Continued theme on EPS 50mb temps and PV displacement. Current guidance too fast to break it down. That's a good thing into early Feb. 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look more favorable into first half of Feb. I figured that would happen. Looks near to just AN temps with a nice -NAO. Yeah that is much better looking than Monday. NAO exerting more influence. Hopefully the break down of the blocking keeps getting pushed out.....you'd expect that to be a theme as guidance starts to "see" the SSW better as it downwells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Looks like she may hold longer than first thought...We Take for sure. Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though. Likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is much better looking than Monday. NAO exerting more influence. Hopefully the break down of the blocking keeps getting pushed out.....you'd expect that to be a theme as guidance starts to "see" the SSW better as it downwells. Just an example. It's more noticeable when you compare the same date 4 or 5 days ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just looking at the 12z EPS that has over running events written all over it, We could make up some ground with a few of these working out going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though. Delayed not denied. Patience grasshoppers. If we bang 30 to 40 in the next 4 weeks I will be near climo . I remain confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just an example. It's more noticeable when you compare the same date 4 or 5 days ago. Yeah the anomaly difference is like 3-4C and the stratospheric PV is squashed/elongated more on the recent runs. 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though. Yeah gonna be hard to get a KU type system in this pattern I think....if there's a window though, I'd prob pick late January when the trough retrogrades into the GOA and may provide a little bit of temporary ridging into the Rockies while we still have a good Atlantic in place. Maybe something like going on an early 1994 run is definitely viable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though. 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Delayed not denied. Patience grasshoppers. If we bang 30 to 40 in the next 4 weeks I will be near climo . I remain confident Not to nitpick, but 2011 would be more like 50-70" in 4 weeks....I ripped off 63 inches between 1/7 and 2/2 in 2011. 30-40 would be more like a Feb '14 or a Jan '94 run. Nothing to sneeze at obviously...I'd take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not to nitpick, but 2011 would be more like 50-70" in 4 weeks....I ripped off 63 inches between 1/7 and 2/2 in 2011. 30-40 would be more like a Feb '14 or a Jan '94 run. Nothing to sneeze at obviously...I'd take it and run. I know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I know that Leon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Leon? Will thinks so. On another note thats a crazy RGEM run for Peter Pony o. Soundings confirm an intense Iso dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Delayed not denied. Patience grasshoppers. If we bang 30 to 40 in the next 4 weeks I will be near climo . I remain confident That is what my call as was last fall...near climo.....see if we can steal some in late Feb and March to go above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Litchfield county is going to pound snow late tomorrow night. No one is forecasting it either, but if models correct that a sapling snapper out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Litchfield county is going to pound snow late tomorrow night. No one is forecasting it either, but if models correct that a sapling snapper out there Models have been hitting there and the berks and not a mention of it for several runs..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will thinks so. On another note thats a crazy RGEM run for Peter Pony o. Soundings confirm an intense Iso dump. I was wondering if anyone noticed that. 18z HRRR and RGEM get a lot of snow into western SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not to nitpick, but 2011 would be more like 50-70" in 4 weeks....I ripped off 63 inches between 1/7 and 2/2 in 2011. 30-40 would be more like a Feb '14 or a Jan '94 run. Nothing to sneeze at obviously...I'd take it and run. I could def. see that 30-40" figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will thinks so. On another note thats a crazy RGEM run for Peter Pony o. Soundings confirm an intense Iso dump. RGEM is a carbon copy of the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I was wondering if anyone noticed that. 18z HRRR and RGEM get a lot of snow into western SNE. Do you have an HREF link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Models have been hitting there and the berks and not a mention of it for several runs..........lol I have Jeff several times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: RGEM is a carbon copy of the 12z GGEM. Have to watch mesos going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 There was a storm exactly like that a few years ago. Models had it and Mets called all rain . I remember places like Goshen to Colebrook ended up getting like 3-6. Don’t remember what year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have Jeff several times Looks good for Pete, Close to Hippy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Euro Op looks like December 1-3 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I've been a little suspicious of the weenie bands shown on the RGEM for the last several runs. There is one near my house too. Seems like the model being a little too cute with monster rates and marginal temps. That could easily just be 33 degree heavy rain (up here too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Models have been hitting there and the berks and not a mention of it for several runs..........lol Clown maps are embellishing IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I think this is from James's book...the double criss-cross front with intersecting trough leading to the end of Boone, NC: The way those fronts intersect in the Atlantic almost outline the Bermuda Triangle, just farther north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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