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40/70 Benchmark
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17 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I love Tip's post.  Just read them more closely, it's good discipline.  Also, be thankful that a Met is willing to post so fulsomely for all us weenies.

 

I was sincere when I said that I appreciated his reply.  Didn't mean for it to come off as snarky or sarcastic.  I also read all of his posts that I see in hopes of learning some things and I appreciate the challenge.

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That fast flow inherent of mod-strong la nina events made major east coast snow storms a rare commodity long before the Hadley Cell began expanding.

What's ur point?   "Sounds" like there's intimation in there to refute the HC's involvement ?   I'd would disagree if that's true - we are superimposing two positive factors = enhancement of total result.   

Wave mechanics are like that...  two positively interfering factors = 5 ...  

Think of rogue way theory in the open ocean as a reasonably metaphor - the arena of the sea and the ocean of the air are after all .. both wave problems.   But, there are two forms of wave interferences that can lead to rogue wave production:  Linear;  Non-linear

Linear is when two waves come along with harmonic timing, and then fuse their energy, and the peak of the wave exceeds the 'apparent' input.   

Non-linear is when you have two competing wave functions propagating through a system, ...call them function A, and function B.    A ... bleeds energy off into B... at some crucial threshold of absorption, A's appearance seems to fall to negligible ( if transiently...) in lieu of a sudden and majestically towering B ... and floundered Edmond Fitzgerald's ...etc..etc.. 

Both these mathematically backed theories on wave interference satisfy wave results in the open sea... They do also in the atmosphere.  But, the migraine only starts there...because they both happen at the same time.  

But, HC is a wave...  La Nina is a wave... so to are the individual S/W and L/Ws...which ride along and help to define wave-function C .. D .. E .. F ...N wave spaces.  They interact along these types of interference circuits above ...cannot be removed.  

By the way... HC is not my theory or observation - although...I noticed something was up with the wind velocities and the winter-time heights staying insidiously elevated in the deep S about 15 years ago ..and upon hearing of the HC stuff it's pretty damningly correlated in my mind.  

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What's ur point?   "Sounds" like there's intimation in there to refute the HC's involvement ?   I'd would disagree if that's true - we are superimposing two positive factors = enhancement of total result.   

Wave mechanics are like that...  two positively interfering factors = 5 ...  

Think of rogue way theory in the open ocean as a reasonably metaphor - the are after all .. both wave problems.   But, there are two forms of wave interferences that can lead to rogue wave production:  Linear;  Non-linear

Linear is when two wave come along with harmonic timing, and then fuse their energy, and the peak of the wave exceeds the 'apparent' input.   

Non-linear is when you have two competing wave functions propagating through a system, ...call them function A, and function B.    A ... bleeds energy off into B... at some crucial threshold of absorption, A's appearance seems to fall to negligible ( if transiently...) in lieu of a sudden and majestically towering B ... and floundered Edmond Fitzgerald ...etc..etc.. 

Both these mathematically backed theories on wave interference satisfy wave results in the open sea... They do also in the atmosphere.  But, the migraine only starts there...because they both happen at the same time.  

But, HC is a wave...  La Nina is a wave... so to are the individual S/W and L/Ws...which ride along and help to define wave-function C .. D .. E .. F ...N wave spaces.  They interact along these types of interference circuits above ...cannot be removed.  

By the way... HC is not my theory or observation - although...I noticed something was up with the wind velocities and the winter-time heights staying insidiously elevated in the deep S about 15 years ago ..and upon hearing of the HC stuff it's pretty damningly correlated in my mind.  

Jesus, John, I'm not refuting anything. I'm merely suggesting that the HC, while it doesn't help, is not the reason mod-strong la ninas are unfavorable for big east coast snowstorms. Its always been the case and always will be.

What did you do, sleep with the dude who wrote that paper? Holy shit....its okay if you did, no one this day and age would view you differently.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, John, I'm not refuting anything. I'm merely suggesting that the HC, while it doesn't help, is not the reason mod-strong la ninas are unfavorable for big east coast snowstorms. Its always been the case and always will be.

What did you do, sleep with the dude who wrote that paper? Holy shit....its okay if you did, no one this day and age would view you differently.

You don't have to say "Jesus, John..." ..or rail off into that other sophomoric blather about gayness haha

we're only having a conversation here - please don't assign attitude to black and white text.  lol - just trying to get why you said it...  not a big deal sport

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You don't have to say "Jesus, John..." 

we're only having a conversation here - please don't assign attitude to black and white text.  lol -

I'm not implying that you are too intense, just that you seem to be preoccupied with that HC phenomenon....we all get it. Its a thing that is at least partially responsible for the modulation of the atmosphere over time, but the fact that stronger la nina events are hostile for major east coast snow storms is not a novel concept.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Convenient how the hadley cell signature of above average heights in the subtropical latitude band over the southern CONUS was nowhere to be found the first two weeks of the month when we needed it most

 

:lol: You are in for it, brother....he is going to wrap that 348 page AMS article around your neck-

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43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is that you have a huge 50/50 low that just sits in place, and a se ridge beneath that....so even if the system avoids getting squashed south by the 50/50, you still need to hope the gradient between the se ridge and the 50/50 low doesn't grind it to shit.

You can console yourself by wondering how every wave can be suppressed with a se ridge in place, but at the end of the say, its not the only issue.

Good points.   I get it.

 

Oh well, we’ll get what we get.  It’s a decent looking set up(not perfect). Let’s roll the dice.

 If it comes up a ratter..then let the Rants fly baby.  Two years in a row. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good points.   I get it.

 

Oh well, we’ll get what we get.  It’s a decent looking set up(not perfect). Let’s roll the dice.

 If it comes up a ratter..then let the Rants fly baby.  Two years in a row. 

Odds are they won't all miss, but its just shows the risk.

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32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ray only follows snow and cares about BECS jacks only while Kevin follows just about anything that tickles him. The Majority of weenies fall somewhere in between.

I’ll take 1-3”. I just want snow in the air and OTG. No need for big events. Nothing has been worse than this past 30 days since Dec 17. We’ve all had little to nothing .  A drought in January. Who’d have thunk it? Even the 80’s can’t rival this 30 day period 

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All of us are. Some are closer to Ray while others are closer to Kevin. It’s a weenie spectrum of sorts. 

I would place Steve at the other end of the spectrum...that guy would get fired up over a report of dew up in Tickass, ME, then come up with a graph illustrating it from some esoteric sight at a moments notice.

Gotta admire his passion...

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not implying that you are too intense, just that you seem to be preoccupied with that HC phenomenon....we all get it. Its a thing that is at least partially responsible for the modulation of the atmosphere over time, but the fact that stronger la nina events are hostile for major east coast snow storms is not a novel concept.

Well... I am not "preoccupied" with shit frankly...

If it's in play, it's in play.  If people had more awareness, understanding ..thus, respect and acceptance there... they would be likely talking about it too and I would not stand out as lone point of 'playground tactical ridicule'   

You may have noticed, I haven't also mentioned HC on my own accord as of late - but only did so this morning because you and Will and Scott...you're bringing up more and more lately and pinning it to my name for jocularity ... which, I'm good with ribbing and stuff... but it also carries along a soupcon of undeniable <_< attitude - 

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... I am not "preoccupied" with shit frankly...

If it's in play, it's in play.  If people had more awareness, understanding ..thus, respect and acceptance there... they would be likely talking about it too and I would not stand out as lone point of 'playground tactical ridicule'   

You may have noticed, I haven't also mentioned HC on my own accord as of late - but only did so this morning because you and Will and Scott...you're bringing up more and more lately and pinning it to my name for jocularity ... which, I'm good with ribbing and stuff... but it also carries along a soupcon of undeniable <_< attitude - 

 

I know the Tip Cell exists.....don't sweat it.

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Just to put things in perspective a bit, it was still 2 weeks from now in ‘15, when the change in that season occurred.  So as Gynxy pointed out, we’ve been here and done this before.  
 

Let’s see how this evolves over the next couple weeks? Maybe we strike out again...but at least it looks to be changing for the better.  

On today's date in 2015 I'd recorded 41.9" of snow for the season and had 10" OG.  Not exactly dealing from the same deck so far.

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would place Steve at the other end of the spectrum...that guy would get fired up over a report of dew up in Tickass, ME, then come up with a graph illustrating it from some esoteric sight at a moments notice.

Gotta admire his passion...

Speaking of NNE and even the BERKS, which by the way encompass SNE are trending colder Saturday.  As pointed out ENS sensitivity is now showing higher pressures in NME which would go along with modeling trends. Definitely much more interesting to discuss than Hadley cells and reading whiny little biatches days after day.

sn10_acc.us_ne (10).png

sn10_acc.us_ne (11).png

sn10_acc.us_ne (12).png

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Speaking of NNE and even the BERKS, which by the way encompass SNE are trending colder Saturday.  As pointed out ENS sensitivity is now showing higher pressures in NME which would go along with modeling trends. Definitely much more interesting to discuss than Hadley cells and reading whiny little biatches days after day.

sn10_acc.us_ne (10).png

sn10_acc.us_ne (11).png

sn10_acc.us_ne (12).png

Here is life with the Hadley Cell factored in:

image.thumb.png.09857d8b8b8f6f2c3a374876a2b390c2.png

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