January 2021

[WinterWolf]

Just to put things in perspective a bit, it was still 2 weeks from now in ‘15, when the change in that season occurred.  So as Gynxy pointed out, we’ve been here and done this before.  
 

Let’s see how this evolves over the next couple weeks? Maybe we strike out again...but at least it looks to be changing for the better.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yet here you are

Don’t spend much time when it’s slow . For some it’s like a support group 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just to put things in perspective a bit, it was still 2 weeks from now in ‘15, when the change in that season occurred.  So as Gynxy pointed out, we’ve been here and done this before.  
 

Let’s see how this evolves over the next couple weeks? Maybe we strike out again...but at least it looks to be changing for the better.  

Cold is there

Now we need the precip 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system.

This is a great look for any other year

[PowderBeard]

Nice winter morning. Roads and everything white again.

[Ginx snewx]

Westfield Ma

http://www.westfieldwebcam.com/index.php/park-square

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just to put things in perspective a bit, it was still 2 weeks from now in ‘15, when the change in that season occurred.  So as Gynxy pointed out, we’ve been here and done this before.  
 

Let’s see how this evolves over the next couple weeks? Maybe we strike out again...but at least it looks to be changing for the better.  

I could also put things into perspective by pointing out that I had more snow a year ago, and ended up 20" below average. lol

I agree it looks better, though....I just think we are nearing the point where most need it to stop looking better and actually be better.

[Ginx snewx]

Nam definitely colder for NNE, hopefully a trend for the winter enthusiasts up there. 

[codfishsnowman]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm okay with him...its usually not at a busy time of day, and he's never malicious. But I get why patience is thin with that crap when its busier.

I think he is hilarious

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regardless of what happens, you did a good job of identifying a relatively favorable period.....problem is that the vast majority of favorable periods don't work out.

Mm.. I can see or suspect what your after/why saying so but synoptic evolution as it portends to favorable vs unfavorable for storm realization - I think .. just imho so don't launch - brings better return rate.  Are you "sort of" bearing in mind the old mantra, "...most warnings don't actually produce tornadoes"  ?? 

Different beast.  In fact, I would argue that most large scale systemic pattern indigestions do actually produce a 'corrective event' at some form of scale or another/geographic realization. I think the difference is IMBY ( as the vernacular goes...).   Most synoptic pattern changes do produce, just not in one's back yard ever times, versus, most supercells don't produce.  

Not quite as bad as apples and oranges... maybe more like apples and pears.   just sayn'

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. I can see or suspect what your after/why saying so but synoptic evolution as it portends to favorable vs unfavorable for storm realization - I think .. just imho so don't launch - brings better return rate.  Are you "sort of" bearing in mind the old mantra, "...most warnings don't actually produce tornadoes"  ?? 

Different beast.  In fact, I would argue that most large scale systemic pattern indigestions do actually produce a 'corrective event' at some form of scale or another/geographic realization. I think the difference is IMBY ( as the vernacular goes...).   Most synoptic pattern changes do produce, just not in one's back yard ever times, versus, most supercells don't produce.  

Not quite as bad as apples and oranges... maybe more like apples and pears.   just sayn'

 

Obviously "favorable" periods work out more relative to unfavorable periods. Vast majority was hyperbole, but a relatively significant percentage of favorable patterns just don't work out.

[Eduardo]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just to put things in perspective a bit, it was still 2 weeks from now in ‘15, when the change in that season occurred.  So as Gynxy pointed out, we’ve been here and done this before.  
 

Let’s see how this evolves over the next couple weeks? Maybe we strike out again...but at least it looks to be changing for the better.  

I was actually thinking about this the other day too, although that winter was as backloaded as they come.  Different ENSO state too, correct?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

34 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I was wondering the same thing. On radar it looks like you're getting it a little heavier than me, ground is coated here.

Almost .25” snowing nicely. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Im not more than 5-8” from average and constant active rainers would be much more miserable but it is comical . I mean both groups seem on edge , so I would also develop thicker skin 

i mean why would anyone spend so much time on a forum when nothing is going on , both groups need other things to do . 

I like seeing how the weather evolves even if it doesn’t give me what I want. I like to learn a little too and have fun clowning around. That’s why I spend time on here even during the slow periods. Not everyone is the same thoug, I get it.  Even when I break Icey’s fragile weenie though...it’s all in good fun. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS/GEFS/GEPS verbatim to me all look like to have just about everything post rainer squashed out underneath us.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like seeing how the weather evolves even if it doesn’t give me what I want. I like to learn a little too and have fun clowning around. 

I would agree on that . With the caveat being that there is weather to follow .

I take more interest in  NNE snow events than probably any SNE’er and some NNE’ers and Saturday has some potential , unfortunately it looks best for Adirondacks /and then there be VT spine upslope. Hoping that the whites near The notches or Kanc can do well with a marginal setup

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS verbatim to me looks like it has just about everything post rainer squashed out underneath us.

Which would fit persistence 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Which would fit persistence 

Yea, because tomorrow's rainer is squashed under us through NNE.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which would fit persistence 

Locked into the cutter/whiff pattern.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm not asking for much. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system.

Let me grasp at a thin reed here....this season, the 50/50 lows have had less sticking power than initially modelled.  Maybe, just maybe, it will leave the playing field half-a-day faster.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system.

 

Yup...I was looking over shit this morning and thinking ... same old shit.   It just won't relent with this buckshotting -  spraying S/W in a rage really is both a deterministic/forecaster's nightmare, but also a modeling proof that models can't model that.  

I mean I'm seeing both machine and human intelligence gaffs going on as of late...   All these Twitter reposts, and none of those have really bore much resemblance to what was anticipated or averred ... I mentioned this yesterday and I think it needs to really sink in and be underscored - fast flow with blocking overarching the polar index domain spaces performs severely ungood!

People should go ahead a continue to rip and read model solutions from D8's ... post in here and open dialogue - it's all good.  Because it is the scaffold of this particular engagement .. serving as an escape and for many, another social outlet - blah blah...

But understand that you're talking about the fun movie you once just saw.  It's not real.  It's state-of-the-art's best it can do in a time when entropy and chaos are overwhelmingly large influential emergences across the bevy of technology solutions.   Actual forecaster value?  We are about as close to Futile as we were in a D10 MRF solution from circa 1986, for D6 given this era we're destined to enter. 

So why?   ..Oh, you're asking me?  okay - 

It's because of the HC working synergistically in concert with the ENSO - which we seemed to intimate we agreed recently?  It is both impossible to deny that relationship as it is difficult to parse either's influence as more or less dominant in that relationship - thus the result on the flow construct.  But, I'm seeing that massively displaced and amplified ( both z-coordinate and areal expansive) west Pacific and eastern Asian PV as plausibly being synergistic.  The HC anomaly enhances easterly trades as a base-line state; so, too, does the La Nina.  But that piling of warm water really enrichens the wester Pac latent heat source, and then when the Boreal colder heights crept in over Autumn, the flow thus greatly accelerated coming off Asia over and through the WPO domain.  That incredible focus at huge mass quantities and scales is driving the vortex because basic Met theory, heights fall polarward of jet cores... it does this at all scales - so...all that is generating the PV N of Japan/S of Kamchatka and it is pulling the AO negative by virtue.  

I don't know if this ever will parlay to better forecasting behavior in mid and extended range guidance this winter ... because if following, logic dictates that mess near Japan is actually anchored by longer term major factors constructively enhancing one another...  That's code for not likely to change.  And I don't have much confidence in the man intelligence because as a credit to my own conceit ( LOL ... ) I suspect I'm the only person that sees all these and explores both limitations and advantages to the circumstances at large.  

Now...that does not preclude "getting lucky" -    ...that outta get the fun popsicle headache of useless argument going... Seriously, the strong flow over the western/central Pack, terminating near the 140 W region as a SW ridge climb...is sending a -PNAP across the mid latitudes of the U.S/ Canada... Meanwhile, we are blocking over top ( as already discussed..). It's spraying inharmonic wave crap underneath wobbling blocks, both in real time and model permutations ...   

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could also put things into perspective by pointing out that I had more snow a year ago, and ended up 20" below average. lol

I agree it looks better, though....I just think we are nearing the point where most need it to stop looking better and actually be better.

Absolutely agree.  
 

Was trying to bolster a little optimism is all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Deep winter. As deep as deep gets with a dusting on the frozen lake 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup...I was looking over shit this morning and thinking ... same old shit.   It just won't relent with this buckshotting -  spraying S/W in a rage really is both a deterministic/forecaster's nightmare, but also a modeling proof that models can't model that.  

I mean I'm seeing both machine and human intelligence gaffs going on as of late...   All these Twitter reposts, and none of those have really bore much resemblance to what was anticipated or averred ... I mentioned this yesterday and I think it needs to really sink in and be underscored - fast flow with blocking overarching the polar index domain spaces performs several ungood!

People should go ahead a continue to rip and read model solutions from D8's ... post in here and open dialogue - it's all good.  Because it is the scaffold of this particular engagement .. serving as an escape and for many, another social outlet - blah blah...

But understand that you're talking about the fun movie you once just saw.  It's not real.  It's state-of-the-art's best it can do in a time when entropy and chaos are overwhelmingly large influential emergences across the bevy of technology solutions.   Actual forecaster value?  We are about as close to Futile as we were in a D10 MRF solution from circa 1986, for D6 given this era we're destined to enter. 

So why?   ..Oh, you're asking me?  okay - 

It's because of the HC working synergistically in concert with the ENSO - which we seemed to intimate we agreed recently?  It is both impossible to deny that relationship as it is difficult to parse either's influence as more or less dominant in that relationship - thus the result on the flow construct.  But, I'm seeing that massively displaced and amplified ( both z-coordinate and areal expansive) west Pacific and eastern Asian PV as plausibly being synergistic.  The HC anomaly enhances easterly trades as a base-line state; so, too, does the La Nina.  But that piling of warm water really enrichens the wester Pac latent heat source, and then when the Boreal colder heights crept in over Autumn, the flow thus greatly accelerated coming off Asia over and through the WPO domain.  That incredible focus at huge mass quantities and scales is driving the vortex because basic Met theory, heights fall polarward of jet cores... it does this at all scales - so...all that is generating the PV N of Japan/S of Kamchatka and it is pulling the AO negative by virtue.  

I don't know if this ever will parlay to better forecasting behavior in mid and extended range guidance this winter ... because if following, logic dictates that mess near Japan is actually anchored by longer term major factors constructively enhancing one another...  That's code for not likely to change.  And I don't have much confidence in the man intelligence because as a credit to my own conceit ( LOL ... ) I suspect I'm the only person that sees all these and explores both limitations and advantages to the circumstances at large.  

Now...that does not preclude "getting lucky" -    ...that outta get the fun popsicle headache of useless argument going... Seriously, the strong flow over the western/central Pack, terminating near the 140 W region as a SW ridge climb...is sending a -PNAP across the mid latitudes of the U.S/ Canada... Meanwhile, we are blocking over top ( as already discussed..). It's spraying inharmonic wave crap underneath wobbling blocks, both in real time and model permutations ...   

That fast flow inherent of mod-strong la nina events made major east coast snow storms a rare commodity long before the Hadley Cell began expanding.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS/GEFS/GEPS verbatim to me all look like to have just about everything post rainer squashed out underneath us.

How likely is that to actually happen...every single one of them? I mean at some point something has to creep north....No?   
 

Although that’s the definition of a ratter I guess. We’ll see how it plays out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How likely is that to actually happen...every single one of them? I mean at some point something has to creep north....No?   
 

Although that’s the definition of a ratter I guess. We’ll see how it play out. 

Problem is that you have a huge 50/50 low that just sits in place, and a se ridge beneath that....so even if the system avoids getting squashed south by the 50/50, you still need to hope the gradient between the se ridge and the 50/50 low doesn't grind it to shit.

You can console yourself by wondering how every wave can be suppressed with a se ridge in place, but at the end of the say, its not the only issue.

[NorEastermass128]

Nice winter light rain this morning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Safest bet for some snow maybe to just EPO load a cold air mass, ditch the NAO block, and slam the storm to the west and into the cold.

SWFE.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm at the stage of life, and season, where I just want a KU.  nuisance snows can pound sand at this point. I mean, I'd take MECS or higher, but as for the the nickel dimers, I'm good

Ill take nuisance snows around the holidays, but after late Jan they kinda lose their luster