tavwtby Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 up in boxboro til the end of the month and I saw a flake this morning! I've checked out of weather, save for a brief look at the models, boring Jan indeed, but there are other things to worry about these days it seems.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Carbon copy of January 2013 and 2015. The bitching is always worse when the pattern isn't garbage but we're still not getting the snowstorms. I think that makes sense....last year once we hit like mid January, I just checked out because I knew what we were working with by that point. Its also tougher for me to do that now bc I have so much down time at work these days.....a month from now, I'll be able to dive into fantasy baseball mode. Defending a title isn't easy, and need prep time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system. Of course, the rainer is the one that prevails.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of what happens, you did a good job of identifying a relatively favorable period.....problem is that the vast majority of favorable periods don't work out. Yes, we discussed exactly this. I still am looking forward to the rest of winter. I still believe we are in for a fantastic stretch. Been there done this. Something will pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Nocera says ens look good so there’s that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes, we discussed exactly this. I still am looking forward to the rest of winter. I still believe we are in for a fantastic stretch. Been there done this. Something will pop I have always thought that we are in for a good stretch....nothing historic, but I would be pretty shocked if this season went on to be a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 despite the lack of any measurable snow, there are still some piles and shaded areas with snow cover, I'd say that's pretty impressive for nearly a month without.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Any type of forecast at 2-5 months lead is obscenely difficult....realistically speaking, obviously you want it to work out as speculated in terms of snowfall, but at the end of the day, all that can really be expected from that range to approximate the general pattern. The snowfall part is just too dependent on shortwave chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Of course, the rainer is the one that prevails.... Yep and it wasn't that far from being snow...when we need a block to hold the line just a little longer, it doesn't on the 1/16-1/17 system. Frustrating. But that's how it goes. This past couple weeks wasn't a textbook snow pattern, but it was serviceable. It was one of those rare "mild but potentially snowy" blocky patterns. Late Dec 2012 was kind of like that but we managed a couple good events (at least away from water). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 What is this white stuff falling from the sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system. Pretty much. And I expect some storms to go south of us too. I'll still take the overall look and go to my grave with it, whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 So Scoots and Will.. you don’t think the storms hitting us on the EPS hold merit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So Scoots and Will.. you don’t think the storms hitting us on the EPS hold merit? Where did you get that idea? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 There is the bitching and the bitching by those that detest bitching . Hopefully I see some flakes dancing about shortly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yep and it wasn't that far from being snow...when we need a block to hold the line just a little longer, it doesn't on the 1/16-1/17 system. Frustrating. But that's how it goes. This past couple weeks wasn't a textbook snow pattern, but it was serviceable. It was one of those rare "mild but potentially snowy" blocky patterns. Late Dec 2012 was kind of like that but we managed a couple good events (at least away from water). Yea, I didn't counter because I'm not invested in this next rainer, but I saw some claiming it should trend east due to the block. The block relents a bit, before regrouping due to the wavebreak resulting from that system. I pointed that out in my Monday blog. Luck, chaos, whatever you want to call it....having the block briefly loosen its grip at precisely the wrong time, and then not having the follow up system able to amplify bc of the wave spacing with the lead rainer is atmospheric chaos that it tough to predict, or attribute to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So Scoots and Will.. you don’t think the storms hitting us on the EPS hold merit? No, snow is done fore the season. I'm dropping Lesco and Lime today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: There is the bitching and the bitching by those that detest bitching . Hopefully I see some flakes dancing about shortly Enough is enough though. Move on with your life, go out and do something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No, snow is done fore the season. I'm dropping Lesco and Lime today. Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ok thanks EPS is responding to the pattern reset. Good times coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I didn't counter because I'm not invested in this next rainer, but I saw some claiming it should trend east due to the block. The block relents a bit, before regrouping due to the wavebreak resulting from that system. I pointed that out in my Monday blog. Luck, chaos, whatever you want to call it....having the block briefly loosen its grip at precisely the wrong time, and then not having the follow up system able to amplify bc of the wave spacing with the lead rainer is atmospheric chaos that it tough to predict, or attribute to the pattern. I will add, though, that this is a more prominent issue in moderate to strong la ninas because the Pacific flow is so prevalent. This is why I didn't forecast a HECS this season, though that Dec system arguably qualifies due to the early PNA/NAO couplet. While its tough to explicitly predict during any given system, there are certain ENSO states in which one can anticipate this being more of a seasonal theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok thanks We got charts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No, snow is done fore the season. I'm dropping Lesco and Lime today. Good day for it. Wash it in with these rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Enough is enough though. Move on with your life, go out and do something. Im not more than 5-8” from average and constant active rainers would be much more miserable but it is comical . I mean both groups seem on edge , so I would also develop thicker skin i mean why would anyone spend so much time on a forum when nothing is going on , both groups need other things to do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What is this white stuff falling from the sky? I was wondering the same thing. On radar it looks like you're getting it a little heavier than me, ground is coated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 I will say, viewing the 19th system on the EPS, H5 looks intriguing enough that I would have expected a more eventful surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Too bad we didn't have a PNA ridge because 1/23 and on is a HECS waiting to happen with all of that energy N of Maine.......just no vehicle to drive it south, so it may just act to squash things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Steady light snow has commenced here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im not more than 5-8” from average and constant active rainers would be much more miserable but it is comical . I mean both groups seem on edge , so I would also develop thicker skin i mean why would anyone spend so much time on a forum when nothing is going on , both groups need other things to do . Yet here you are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Steady light snow has commenced here. Been snowing for about 30min in downtown Milford. I wouldn't say it's accumulating but enough to lightly whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now