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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the 50/50 low is more of a problem than the NAO block....

They are directly related....NAO block holds the 50/50 low in place. I can see his point on the upstream ridging potential....it's definitely not a classic KU setup. We don't have a rockies/western ridge. This is more of a SWFE type threat running into a brick wall. Those can be very good of course....but they have a different mechanics behind them than the classic maturing coastal cyclone.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a -EPO S/W though already diving into the Plains. If that block is not there, that thing would be sending Toucan Sam to Ray's front door.  You also wonder if the SE ridge flexes just a bit as we have seen in these setups.

Yep...as mentioned above, this is kind of a SWFE on steroids look....prob would be a cutter without that block.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I will take the suppression risk because the alternative is a non-starter SWFE or even rainer...I get it.

My guess is at least one event may go south and get the masses all fired up. But I don't think this is a one and done setup. I still feel it persists into Feb for at least part of it.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are directly related....NAO block holds the 50/50 low in place. I can see his point on the upstream ridging potential....it's definitely not a classic KU setup. We don't have a rockies/western ridge. This is more of a SWFE type threat running into a brick wall. Those can be very good of course....but they have a different mechanics behind them than the classic maturing coastal cyclone.

 

Yep...as mentioned above, this is kind of a SWFE on steroids look....prob would be a cutter without that block.

I know that, but its not like its block displaced to the south, as was the issue earlier this season. Literally speaking, its technically the 50/50 low..I guess you could move the NAO block even further north, but then you are risking a later transfer.

Pattern is flawed, but it can work.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder what Will thinks as well, but the end of the EPS started filling in or lifting the deep trough off of CA a bit. Almost like PNA trying to rise again and the big -EPO ridge retros more. 

The geps do it as well but a bit faster. 

B22A9313-5C94-4229-9510-4E9527BC9C53.png

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2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I think the ridge over Hispanola is the biggest problem.  It turns the atmosphere over the east coast into a threshing machine.  Although it does seem to be banished after the proverbial 10 days....

Its both...one risk is suppression from the block-50/50 low...the other is compression between the se ridge and the -NAO attenuating the wave.

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2 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Haha Might as well be the moon around here.  It was the first map I could get that would show both the Pac and Atl.   I feel like a 20+ handicap golfer hanging with tour pros here, just tryna participate and learn.

No worries, northern hemisphere is usually good.

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47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the 50/50 low is more of a problem than the NAO block....

The block can be there because of that low...  The low is there because of non-linear wave dispersion downstream of the Pac /N/A pattern... and then that stalling flops latent heat ino height rises in the NAO domain ... It looks likes the block is pinning the low but ...technically that's not exactly right but for purpose in here, ...haha, folks don't understand Schroginger math -

Which can at times be fine - usually what transpires is the 50/50 fills and opens up at the last minutes ( so to speak...) and that opens up the wave spacing for the new one to go to work.  It's why in retrograde tendencies, the R-wave numbers situate/move west relative to the flow - it's synoptic 101 we learn in FAST as undergrads.. The 50/50 is a L/W axis technically...and then it moves out fills...as the Midwest carves out a new one more here -  and that drills the R-wave pattern orientation backward.

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5 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Haha Might as well be the moon around here.  It was the first map I could get that would show both the Pac and Atl.   I feel like a 20+ handicap golfer hanging with tour pros here, just tryna participate and learn.

I was kidding...don't feel intimidated.  Post away. At least you post models. People like Damage In Tolland have been around since 1983, but don't look at models.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The block can be there because of that low...

Which can at times be fine - usually what transpires is the 50/50 fills and opens up at the last minutes ( so to speak...) and that opens up the wave spacing for the new one to go to work.  It's why in retrograde tendencies, the R-wave numbers situate/move west relative to the flow - it's synoptic 101 we learn in FAST as undergrads.. The 50/50 is a L/W axis technically...and then it moves out fills...as the Midwest carves out a new one more here -  and that drills the R-wave pattern orientation backward.

Yea, they are a system...all I was getting at was differentiating between this, and the S displaced block scenario that we had before.

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8 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Haha Might as well be the moon around here.  It was the first map I could get that would show both the Pac and Atl.   I feel like a 20+ handicap golfer hanging with tour pros here, just tryna participate and learn.

Scooter truly believes he is high and mighty here and will force himself and opinions on everyone. We just brush that arrogance aside and post what we feel is best and correct. You learn to understand his ways and what his intentions are . Just be yourself and don’t let him get you down. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, they are a system...all I was getting at was differentiating between this, and the S displaced block scenario that we had before.

Oh... well, shit yeah there's no similarity.  Yeah, folks need to look at this as a unique new uncharted Winter deal -

This particular installment of -NAO ( if succeeding...) is under carriaged by a f'n fire hose roaring across the CONUS. 

It's a reason why I think the deterministics in this era are in crisis bad performance frankly - we're in for a bumpy performance ride.   

I just wonder if this pattern insistence of blocking nodes with higher than normal hemispheric, base-line wind velocities might be beyond the state of the art - interesting... 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh... well, shit yeah there's no similarity.  Yeah, folks need to look at this as a unique new uncharted Winter deal -

This particular installment of -NAO ( if succeeding...) is under carriaged by a f'n fire hose roaring across the CONUS. 

It's a reason why I think the deterministics in this era are in crisis bad performance frankly - we're in for a bumpy performance ride.   

I just wonder if this pattern insistence of blocking nodes with higher than normal hemispheric, base-line wind velocities might be beyond the state of the art - interesting... 

We will be longing for the days of early January 2021 once the hadley cell destroys our geopotential medium later this month.

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

image.png.8d12886f3fa8fce9d566bb564685ed20.png

Concurs rather succinctly with the GEFs too - 

I'm not sure what to make of that ...  other than an early spring - lol just kidding

No, but with the -AO antecedent, as in ..already on-going, then, we add a new exertion to suppress the AO from that SSW stuff ...the two factors may synergistically feed-back and really, that muddles things considerable. 

( It may be why a several of the GEFs members at CPC are drilling the AO to exotic depths out toward week two. That's timing right when the PV would start to stress and reel from the warming aloft/SSW shenanigans...  Thought I saw -7 SD there...yikes!  )  ... 

Firstly, -PNA is not a death sentence ( for the general reader ..) it depends on the mass idiosyncratic layout ... If the PNA is biased tad E while negative ...the flow will tend to split out west. That turns a "warm pattern" into " bomb pattern" really fast... Or, icing and overrunning...etc...  Throw in a weighty blocking regime 50 to 60 N over top ... 

Lot of possibilities ... and I was just commenting to ray that this has powdered model -fug-up just at water written all over it!

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