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January 2021


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noticed others commenting on the sensible weather as of late .... 

I can only add, I don't recall a January with wind this still.  Specifically that one particular metric...  In the last 10 days, I've seen two days where flags wobbled...as in, zephyrs all but unnoticeable ..otherwise, it's been almost calm the whole time.   

( there may be an afternoon that I am forgetting but for all intents and purposes - ) 

That's getting extraordinary ... We are approaching the perennial windiest time of the year for Logon ...can't imagine that's not the case everywhere else around here just the same..   Here we are again, ...no wind.   And frankly, the temperatures,  general appeal, other than a couple few cloud afternoons as others have noted... these other aspects are remarkable fixed.  We have also seen an exceptionally long duration of fair to sun sky.   Although that's a different metric than wind - just sayn'   pretty remarkably quiescent 

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noticed others commenting on the sensible weather as of late .... 
I can only add, I don't recall a January with wind this still.  Specifically that one particular metric...  In the last 10 days, I've seen two days where flags wobbled...as in, zephyrs all but unnoticeable ..otherwise, it's been almost calm the whole time.   
( there may be an afternoon that I am forgetting but for all intents and purposes - ) 
That's getting extraordinary ... We are approaching the perennial windiest time of the year for Logon ...can't imagine that's not the case everywhere else around here just the same..   Here we are again, ...no wind.   And frankly, the temperatures,  general appeal, other than a couple few cloud afternoons as others have noted... these other aspects are remarkable fixed.  We have also seen an exceptionally long duration of fair to sun sky.   Although that's a different metric than wind - just sayn'   pretty remarkably quiescent 
Agreed Tip, Casco Bay has been unusually calm these past two weeks...

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You know... I've been sentient as a Meteorologist for ... oh 25 ... maybe 30 years ...

I don't recall any winter ever from ~ 37 N on up that really suffered a lack of winter production because "lack of cold air" - has anyone ever said, 'there's a lack of cold air'  in the first place ?

There's always enough ...  whether it is aloft ..or plumbed to the deck ... or astride the region in Ontario... it's always within synoptic/dynamical reach - 

The issue is cyclones and circumstances therein, where the physical processes can access the cold or not. 

Yes... In J-J-A and most of S into the first halves of O's ...there is a definitive lack of cold air

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks.

 

Jan13_12zEPS192.png

Hhhhehhh...... on the fence with that look frankly - probably ...I'm in the minority in a starved group of anything to toe hold for the love of god forlorning ... lol, but I don't like the wave spacing between that midwest axis and that NAO block...

Which by the way, the NAO has really come into prominence in the last couple three or so cycles...It was less emphatic and not nearly as well designed, then the operational runs ( interestingly enough...) sort of led the way, and now the ensembles of both seem to like the notion of a mid geographic/ .. neutral position layout out. 

Anyway, the problem is that mid west trough can't really roll out ridging ahead of it because of that totality of that look ( to me ..). 

Meh ... That block needs to relax ...or the ridge just pancakes along the fast velocities exiting the EC and the midwest wave squashes... 

Granted, this is a snap shot - maybe that block up there is moving or decaying ...In which case the trough moves up to take its place, the ridging amps passing off the EC, and that mid west thing than carves 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hhhhehhh...... on the fence with that look frankly - probably ...I'm in the minority in a starved group of anything to toe hold for the love of god forlorning ... lol, but I don't like the wave spacing between that midwest axis and that NAO block...

Which by the way, the NAO has really come into prominence in the last couple three or so cycles...It was less emphatic and not nearly as well designed, then the operational runs ( interestingly enough...) sort of led the way, and now the ensembles of both seem to like the notion of a mid geographic/ .. neutral position layout out. 

Anyway, the problem is that mid west trough can't really roll out ridging ahead of it because of that totality of that look ( to me ..). 

Meh ... That block needs to relax ...or the ridge just pancakes along the fast velocities exiting the EC and the midwest wave squashes... 

Granted, this is a snap shot - maybe that block up there is moving or decaying ...In which case the trough moves up to take its place, the ridging amps passing off the EC, and that mid west thing than carves 

I think the 50/50 low is more of a problem than the NAO block....

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a -EPO S/W though already diving into the Plains. If that block is not there, that thing would be sending Toucan Sam to Ray's front door.  You also wonder if the SE ridge flexes just a bit as we have seen in these setups.

Yea, I will take the suppression risk because the alternative is a non-starter SWFE or even rainer...I get it.

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks.

 

Jan13_12zEPS192.png

can you indicate what your hand-drawn lines (squiggly and otherwise) are trying to tell us dummies (me)?

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