STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, ariof said: 78h locations of low pressure: ECMWF: 993 over PSM GGEM: 988 over ALB RGEM: 987 over ALB GFS: 992 over YQM GFS v16: 989 over PSM NAM: 991 over BID Faith in Euro at all time high ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 noticed others commenting on the sensible weather as of late .... I can only add, I don't recall a January with wind this still. Specifically that one particular metric... In the last 10 days, I've seen two days where flags wobbled...as in, zephyrs all but unnoticeable ..otherwise, it's been almost calm the whole time. ( there may be an afternoon that I am forgetting but for all intents and purposes - ) That's getting extraordinary ... We are approaching the perennial windiest time of the year for Logon ...can't imagine that's not the case everywhere else around here just the same.. Here we are again, ...no wind. And frankly, the temperatures, general appeal, other than a couple few cloud afternoons as others have noted... these other aspects are remarkable fixed. We have also seen an exceptionally long duration of fair to sun sky. Although that's a different metric than wind - just sayn' pretty remarkably quiescent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ray with a hundred posts in 2 days, for someone not invested.... Right after the melt when he was home alone with lube and a bowl of cheerios...he suddenly became invested. Funny how that works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ray with a hundred posts in 2 days, for someone not invested.... And no snow in 20+ days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Gfs and euro are so different for next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Not a bad euro look next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not a bad euro look next week. any cold air? The GFS is warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: any cold air? The GFS is warm Looks good. Cold is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: any cold air? The GFS is warm It's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and euro are so different for next week Yeah, EURO much faster, but has the signal for late next week.. we track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: any cold air? The GFS is warm It's plenty cold...in fact, prob too much cold this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ray with a hundred posts in 2 days, for someone not invested.... Posts aren't about the stupid 16-17 event....that's all I'm not invested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's plenty cold...in fact, prob too much cold this run. wow-completely different from GFS although that looks like suppression city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Decent signal which is nice. Ensembles have shown something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Compromise of the EURO and GFS would be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Not worried about any op run output at d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Ha.... nah, not considering them would be more apropos in this setting/ .. pattern circumstance(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 noticed others commenting on the sensible weather as of late .... I can only add, I don't recall a January with wind this still. Specifically that one particular metric... In the last 10 days, I've seen two days where flags wobbled...as in, zephyrs all but unnoticeable ..otherwise, it's been almost calm the whole time. ( there may be an afternoon that I am forgetting but for all intents and purposes - ) That's getting extraordinary ... We are approaching the perennial windiest time of the year for Logon ...can't imagine that's not the case everywhere else around here just the same.. Here we are again, ...no wind. And frankly, the temperatures, general appeal, other than a couple few cloud afternoons as others have noted... these other aspects are remarkable fixed. We have also seen an exceptionally long duration of fair to sun sky. Although that's a different metric than wind - just sayn' pretty remarkably quiescent Agreed Tip, Casco Bay has been unusually calm these past two weeks... Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 This month is what January 2011 would have looked like had it tried to read one of Tip's posts through to the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 You know... I've been sentient as a Meteorologist for ... oh 25 ... maybe 30 years ... I don't recall any winter ever from ~ 37 N on up that really suffered a lack of winter production because "lack of cold air" - has anyone ever said, 'there's a lack of cold air' in the first place ? There's always enough ... whether it is aloft ..or plumbed to the deck ... or astride the region in Ontario... it's always within synoptic/dynamical reach - The issue is cyclones and circumstances therein, where the physical processes can access the cold or not. Yes... In J-J-A and most of S into the first halves of O's ...there is a definitive lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 That's a nice signal on the EPS for the same time-ish as the op run. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks. Hhhhehhh...... on the fence with that look frankly - probably ...I'm in the minority in a starved group of anything to toe hold for the love of god forlorning ... lol, but I don't like the wave spacing between that midwest axis and that NAO block... Which by the way, the NAO has really come into prominence in the last couple three or so cycles...It was less emphatic and not nearly as well designed, then the operational runs ( interestingly enough...) sort of led the way, and now the ensembles of both seem to like the notion of a mid geographic/ .. neutral position layout out. Anyway, the problem is that mid west trough can't really roll out ridging ahead of it because of that totality of that look ( to me ..). Meh ... That block needs to relax ...or the ridge just pancakes along the fast velocities exiting the EC and the midwest wave squashes... Granted, this is a snap shot - maybe that block up there is moving or decaying ...In which case the trough moves up to take its place, the ridging amps passing off the EC, and that mid west thing than carves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks. i always know when Will makes his wiggling lines we are in for some fun. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hhhhehhh...... on the fence with that look frankly - probably ...I'm in the minority in a starved group of anything to toe hold for the love of god forlorning ... lol, but I don't like the wave spacing between that midwest axis and that NAO block... Which by the way, the NAO has really come into prominence in the last couple three or so cycles...It was less emphatic and not nearly as well designed, then the operational runs ( interestingly enough...) sort of led the way, and now the ensembles of both seem to like the notion of a mid geographic/ .. neutral position layout out. Anyway, the problem is that mid west trough can't really roll out ridging ahead of it because of that totality of that look ( to me ..). Meh ... That block needs to relax ...or the ridge just pancakes along the fast velocities exiting the EC and the midwest wave squashes... Granted, this is a snap shot - maybe that block up there is moving or decaying ...In which case the trough moves up to take its place, the ridging amps passing off the EC, and that mid west thing than carves I think the 50/50 low is more of a problem than the NAO block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i always know when Will makes his wiggling lines we are in for some fun. Yep. Same goes for when DIT goes into full reverse psychology mode. Fun times ahead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not worried about any op run output at d10. me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 That's a -EPO S/W though already diving into the Plains. If that block is not there, that thing would be sending Toucan Sam to Ray's front door. You also wonder if the SE ridge flexes just a bit as we have seen in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's a -EPO S/W though already diving into the Plains. If that block is not there, that thing would be sending Toucan Sam to Ray's front door. You also wonder if the SE ridge flexes just a bit as we have seen in these setups. Yea, I will take the suppression risk because the alternative is a non-starter SWFE or even rainer...I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks. can you indicate what your hand-drawn lines (squiggly and otherwise) are trying to tell us dummies (me)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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