40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of fentanyl being shipped from Moosup, CT. Most of it arriving on the streets of the higher terrain in central VT and NH. 0.0 interest in that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 These temps have been very weird... so consistent... no huge spikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like you'll get cold. Be careful what you wish for....it gets freaking cold up there..lol. I was up there cross country skiing in 1994 when it was like -35F at night. At some point, the cold becomes stupid. Any cold would be nice. Mid-20s and dry for weeks followed by 35 and rain followed by mid-20s and dry is no way to run a winter. That's barely any different than I get in northern MD. Bring on some -35s to at least shake things up and freeze the lakes/ponds. Anyway, I will stop complaining. Hopefully this weekend thing is more snow than rain. Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. It seems that way, but Scott is right....nothing record breaking, but once that PAC jet settles down, there should eventually be some anomalous cold. I am not as pessimistic on February as I was when I wrote the outlook, mainly given the SSW.....but we will see. I was hedging towards a Feb 2018 type month, but kind of doubting that now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm on the northern edge of that NH bullseye. Fine by me. A few inches and drizzle is better than a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: These temps have been very weird... so consistent... no huge spikes This is what I have been saying....you have to go back to 12/28 to find a high not between 33 and 41 IMBY. TBH, I would not have minded this stretch so much if we had a decent pack. The grinch ruined the first half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I have been saying....you have to go back to 12/28 to find a high not between 33 and 41 IMBY. TBH, I would not have mind this stretch so much if we had a decent pack. I have a faux pack here... 0-2" Very odd. Still a little leftover snow on my roof as well, despite these AN temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it hasn't....the somewhat more favorable pattern developed shortly after New Years....we narrowly missed a good storm on 1/3-1/4 and there were a couple other shots around 1/12 and 1/14 but we couldn't get the shortwaves to line up. It's true that the pattern was always going to improve as the month wore on, but we definitely could have scored something in New England before then in the 1/3-1/14 period. Them's the breaks. Sounds like bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I have been saying....you have to go back to 12/28 to find a high not between 33 and 41 IMBY. TBH, I would not have minded this stretch so much if we had a decent pack. The grinch ruined the first half. You said it. The total wipeout anomaly from that "event" caused the record to skip and we still haven't gotten back in the groove. Easy to forget it wiped out 3ft+ of fresh pack in spots that are now basically bare or close to it. If that storm hadn't happened, we would be viewing this period as the reload time versus feeling urgency to scrape and claw to save some scrap of winter right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I have a faux pack here... 0-2" Very odd. Still a little leftover snow on my roof as well, despite these AN temps This, at least sensible weather wise, has been a like a modified January 2009 stretch....bit milder and drier, but very consistent stretch with no thaws. I think there is value in avoiding bonafide thaws over a protracted stretch at this latitude....but the lack of antecedent snow killed it. As Will noted, most of the best winters have these stretches.....following the blizz of 78, we had like a month of seasonable cold and dry before a minor March event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sounds like bad luck. Yeah and for those who don't like the term "luck"....it was unfortunate "unpredictable shortwave chaos" in an otherwise half-decent longwave pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and for those who don't like the term "luck"....it was unfortunate "unpredictable shortwave chaos" in an otherwise half-decent longwave pattern. We seem to be getting more of these episodes between last winter and this one so far, Rather then breaking the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 nice weenie run post 1/18 on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. It’s obviously harder for NNE to make up for a slow first half of the season . SNE is always one storm away bc we average less .You just need frequent precipitation events / active pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: We seem to be getting more of these episodes between last winter and this one so far, Rather then breaking the right way. Regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s harder for NNE to make up for a slow season . SNE is always one storm away . You just need frequent precipitation events / active pattern . Yep, I've already given up on getting anywhere near average. Would just like to hit 100" and have a nice stretch where it is solidly cold with a couple solid upslope events. Maybe after this next cutter... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of fentanyl being shipped from Moosup, CT. 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regression. aggression soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yep, I've already given up on getting anywhere near average. Would just like to hit 100" and have a nice stretch where it is solidly cold with a couple solid upslope events. Maybe after this next cutter... LOL You would need a record Feb-Mar and i don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This, at least sensible weather wise, has been a like a modified January 2009 stretch....bit milder and drier, but very consistent stretch with no thaws. I think there is value in avoiding bonafide thaws over a protracted stretch at this latitude....but the lack of antecedent snow killed it. As Will noted, most of the best winters have these stretches.....following the blizz of 78, we had like a month of seasonable cold and dry before a minor March event. 2015 and to a lesser extent, 2005 more recent examples....hell, Feb-March 2011 sucked......prior to Jan 12 2011, it was on par with this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regression. is a b*tch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: You would need a record Feb-Mar and i don't see it. I think you have a better shot for that than SNE....just needs to be active. You can even pull that off without blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That algorithm has consistently not shown snow at 33 degrees. Granted Euro is overdone the other way but judging by previous storms especially the last 2 years of Dec storms that is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You would need a record Feb-Mar and i don't see it. Just need 60" each month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Luck is involved in everything.....sports included. Its one thing to acknowledge it, and another to use it as an excuse for a busted forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: That algorithm has consistently not shown snow at 33 degrees. Granted Euro is overdone the other way but judging by previous storms especially the last 2 years of Dec storms that is underdone. Its not perfect, but the most accurate representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you have a better shot for that than SNE....just needs to be active. You can even pull that off without blocking. Can always pull it off without blocking especially this time of year, I'd much rather take my chances without it actually, Been burned to many times with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just need 60" each month. Ha, Yeah, Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Can always pull it off without blocking especially this time of year, I'd much rather take my chances without it actually, Been burned to many times with it. I know....I would root against it if I were you provided that you were confident of a -EPO. Neg EPO/+NAO if your most prolific set up IMO....problem is that I don't think we will keep a neg EPO, so you may want to hope the blocking lingers like the rest of us and take your chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just need 60" each month. Eh, you get a lot of snow in April there which is part of the seasonal climo. You could easily put up a couple 40-spots in Feb/Mar and then add another 15-20 on the margins (end of Jan plus whatever falls April and beyond) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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