Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Its to bad the air mass sucks, Could have been decent snow right to the coast up here, At least the foothills and mtns of CNE/NNE as well as Northern ME look to cash. Enjoy the riding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: not ready to embrace this yet, but I wonder if one scenario is a sort of warm swfe where CNE and lower NNE get a burst of 4-8 heavy wet snow, then dry slot and drizzle? That would be a nice set-up for what comes the following couple of weeks. That depiction as shown looks awfully optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Enjoy the riding Looks like i will have to trailer to the snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That depiction as shown looks awfully optimistic. Anything but a tropical cutter. Snow to mix to snow is fine. Just not 57 degrees with heavy rain please. I can’t handle another pack-killing cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Coating of snow last night....strange. Same here. Not sure when that happened. And coating here is a stretch. Just some pellets that survived the night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I’d make a joke, but I think @RUNNAWAYICEBERG would make it better. Oh boy...that’s a layup but I yield to the gentleman from Massachusetts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Anything but a tropical cutter. Snow to mix to snow is fine. Just not 57 degrees with heavy rain please. I can’t handle another pack-killing cutter. What about 36F rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What about 36F rain? Better, I guess. If that’s what’s coming, I hope this thing fizzles like the GFS shows. What a winter up here so far. Really lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Rainer to Mainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What about 36F rain? Real marginal air mass. Might be a summit blue bomb and rain below 2,000ft based on the soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rainer to Mainer Not everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Real marginal air mass. Might be a summit blue bomb and rain below 2,000ft based on the soundings. Could see an uplsope component too on the E and SE slopes locally cooling it there for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could see an uplsope component too on the E and SE slopes locally cooling it there for a time. Yeah you can see the 925mb temps respond well to wind flow in VT/NH. Cooler values switching from east side to west side of the terrain with the wind change mid-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that. I remember when we just needed to wait until January 10th... what a dumpster fire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I remember when we just needed to wait until January 10th... what a dumpster fire. It has always been mid month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Same here. Not sure when that happened. And coating here is a stretch. Just some pellets that survived the night Yea....pellets on my deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....pellets on my deck. Think we will still pull off two warning events in the next 17 days Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It has always been mid month No it hasn't....the somewhat more favorable pattern developed shortly after New Years....we narrowly missed a good storm on 1/3-1/4 and there were a couple other shots around 1/12 and 1/14 but we couldn't get the shortwaves to line up. It's true that the pattern was always going to improve as the month wore on, but we definitely could have scored something in New England before then in the 1/3-1/14 period. Them's the breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I remember when we just needed to wait until January 10th... what a dumpster fire. Warmest and least snowiest on record for Randolph from May '20 to May '21? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it hasn't....the somewhat more favorable pattern developed shortly after New Years....we narrowly missed a good storm on 1/3-1/4 and there were a couple other shots around 1/12 and 1/14 but we couldn't get the shortwaves to line up. It's true that the pattern was always going to improve as the month wore on, but we definitely could have scored something in New England before then in the 1/3-1/14 period. Them's the breaks. Yeah I think we were saying mid month when the Pacific gets better and overall better airmass, but we did have some chances on guidance before that. Some of the srn storms were brought up here on the models, but alas to no avail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Warmest and least snowiest on record for Randolph from May '20 to May '21? Seems possible. About 40 inches to go to match 2015-2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that. For example. You can see the current day 10 image from what the forecast was 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Seems possible. About 40 inches to go to match 2015-2016. LOL you'll be fine I think. I could see a good Feb and Mar there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I think we were saying mid month when the Pacific gets better and overall better airmass, but we did have some chances on guidance before that. Some of the srn storms were brought up here on the models, but alas to no avail. Yeah the PAC improvement was always mid-month, but usually when we have a good -NAO and kind of a cruddy PAC, the active firehose will spray a system or two into that block and give us an event. But in the 2021 version, we almost ended up with too many shortwaves and couldn't get anything to become dominant and solidify....and the single shortwave that did got crushed just enough to screw us (1/3-1/4).....kind of a bad break, but it happens. As we've preached, how many good breaks have we gotten in the past 15 years? LOL. But maybe we make up for it in the next 2-3 weeks with a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL you'll be fine I think. I could see a good Feb and Mar there. Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... seems really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. I feel like you'll get cold. Be careful what you wish for....it gets freaking cold up there..lol. I was up there cross country skiing in 1994 when it was like -35F at night. At some point, the cold becomes stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats Phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A lot of fentanyl being shipped from Moosup, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, 512high said: Think we will still pull off two warning events in the next 17 days Ray? I would not be surprised.....definitely at least one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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