Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:58 PM, dryslot said: Its to bad the air mass sucks, Could have been decent snow right to the coast up here, At least the foothills and mtns of CNE/NNE as well as Northern ME look to cash. Expand Enjoy the riding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:59 PM, mahk_webstah said: not ready to embrace this yet, but I wonder if one scenario is a sort of warm swfe where CNE and lower NNE get a burst of 4-8 heavy wet snow, then dry slot and drizzle? That would be a nice set-up for what comes the following couple of weeks. Expand That depiction as shown looks awfully optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:01 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Enjoy the riding Expand Looks like i will have to trailer to the snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:05 PM, CoastalWx said: That depiction as shown looks awfully optimistic. Expand Anything but a tropical cutter. Snow to mix to snow is fine. Just not 57 degrees with heavy rain please. I can’t handle another pack-killing cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Coating of snow last night....strange. Expand Same here. Not sure when that happened. And coating here is a stretch. Just some pellets that survived the night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:58 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I’d make a joke, but I think @RUNNAWAYICEBERG would make it better. Expand Oh boy...that’s a layup but I yield to the gentleman from Massachusetts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:08 PM, PhineasC said: Anything but a tropical cutter. Snow to mix to snow is fine. Just not 57 degrees with heavy rain please. I can’t handle another pack-killing cutter. Expand What about 36F rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:15 PM, CoastalWx said: What about 36F rain? Expand Better, I guess. If that’s what’s coming, I hope this thing fizzles like the GFS shows. What a winter up here so far. Really lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Rainer to Mainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:15 PM, CoastalWx said: What about 36F rain? Expand Real marginal air mass. Might be a summit blue bomb and rain below 2,000ft based on the soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Rainer to Mainer Expand Not everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:21 PM, powderfreak said: Real marginal air mass. Might be a summit blue bomb and rain below 2,000ft based on the soundings. Expand Could see an uplsope component too on the E and SE slopes locally cooling it there for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Could see an uplsope component too on the E and SE slopes locally cooling it there for a time. Expand Yeah you can see the 925mb temps respond well to wind flow in VT/NH. Cooler values switching from east side to west side of the terrain with the wind change mid-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:33 PM, CoastalWx said: The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that. Expand I remember when we just needed to wait until January 10th... what a dumpster fire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:41 PM, PhineasC said: I remember when we just needed to wait until January 10th... what a dumpster fire. Expand It has always been mid month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:08 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Same here. Not sure when that happened. And coating here is a stretch. Just some pellets that survived the night Expand Yea....pellets on my deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....pellets on my deck. Expand Think we will still pull off two warning events in the next 17 days Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:44 PM, MJO812 said: It has always been mid month Expand No it hasn't....the somewhat more favorable pattern developed shortly after New Years....we narrowly missed a good storm on 1/3-1/4 and there were a couple other shots around 1/12 and 1/14 but we couldn't get the shortwaves to line up. It's true that the pattern was always going to improve as the month wore on, but we definitely could have scored something in New England before then in the 1/3-1/14 period. Them's the breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:41 PM, PhineasC said: I remember when we just needed to wait until January 10th... what a dumpster fire. Expand Warmest and least snowiest on record for Randolph from May '20 to May '21? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: No it hasn't....the somewhat more favorable pattern developed shortly after New Years....we narrowly missed a good storm on 1/3-1/4 and there were a couple other shots around 1/12 and 1/14 but we couldn't get the shortwaves to line up. It's true that the pattern was always going to improve as the month wore on, but we definitely could have scored something in New England before then in the 1/3-1/14 period. Them's the breaks. Expand Yeah I think we were saying mid month when the Pacific gets better and overall better airmass, but we did have some chances on guidance before that. Some of the srn storms were brought up here on the models, but alas to no avail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Warmest and least snowiest on record for Randolph from May '20 to May '21? Expand Seems possible. About 40 inches to go to match 2015-2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:33 PM, CoastalWx said: The other thing that makes me hopeful for the first half of Feb, is the tendency for models to break down the warming at 50mb. I'm comparing EPS forecasts and they overall are showing the tendency for this warm node to be broken down too quickly. IOW, I would think an overall -AO or -NAO regime probably persists a little longer than the weeklies show. The fact that guidance sort of latches on to another -NAO by the Davis Straits might be a sign of that. Expand For example. You can see the current day 10 image from what the forecast was 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:57 PM, PhineasC said: Seems possible. About 40 inches to go to match 2015-2016. Expand LOL you'll be fine I think. I could see a good Feb and Mar there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I think we were saying mid month when the Pacific gets better and overall better airmass, but we did have some chances on guidance before that. Some of the srn storms were brought up here on the models, but alas to no avail. Expand Yeah the PAC improvement was always mid-month, but usually when we have a good -NAO and kind of a cruddy PAC, the active firehose will spray a system or two into that block and give us an event. But in the 2021 version, we almost ended up with too many shortwaves and couldn't get anything to become dominant and solidify....and the single shortwave that did got crushed just enough to screw us (1/3-1/4).....kind of a bad break, but it happens. As we've preached, how many good breaks have we gotten in the past 15 years? LOL. But maybe we make up for it in the next 2-3 weeks with a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:00 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL you'll be fine I think. I could see a good Feb and Mar there. Expand Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:04 PM, PhineasC said: Seems like a really tall order under the current weather regime. Need a total pattern flip. My temp has only been single digits a couple times this winter... seems really abnormal based on the past data I looked at. Expand I feel like you'll get cold. Be careful what you wish for....it gets freaking cold up there..lol. I was up there cross country skiing in 1994 when it was like -35F at night. At some point, the cold becomes stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 11:03 AM, Ginx snewx said: Congrats Phin Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 2:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Expand A lot of fentanyl being shipped from Moosup, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 1:47 PM, 512high said: Think we will still pull off two warning events in the next 17 days Ray? Expand I would not be surprised.....definitely at least one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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